Abstract
Recent studies have shown that the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) can significantly influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In an earlier study, we proposed that AZM influence propagates in tropospheric temperature as Kelvin wave-like features to the east to reach the Indian Ocean and influences the monsoon by modulating the mid-tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient and thereby the seasonal mean flow. The changes thus induced in the mean flow were shown to affect the monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal and rainfall over India. In the present study, we use the Coupled Forecast System version 2, which is utilized for seasonal prediction of ISM in India, to examine how well the model simulates this AZM-monsoon link. In the sensitivity experiment, a warm AZM SST anomaly is added over the tropical Atlantic in the boreal summer and the ISM response is studied. We find that the model simulates the important aspects of the AZM-monsoon link. The model also simulates a known dynamics-based mechanism wherein a warm AZM SST anomaly produces a Matsuno-Gill type response, which in turn induces a sinking motion over India causing a reduction in rainfall. However, some finer details of these mechanisms are not simulated due to mean state biases in the tropical Atlantic in the model, a problem common to many coupled models. Our study highlights the need for the improvement of mean state of model in the tropical Atlantic to better capture the AZM-ISM relationship which will ultimately improve the monsoon forecasts issued using this model.
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taken from the respective observed datasets discussed in Sect. 2.1 and the statistically significant regressions at the 20% level in precipitation (contours; positive: blue; negative: red) and in winds (black vectors) are marked in their respective colors
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Availability of data and material
All the observational/reanalysis data used in this work are publicly available and the data sources are indicated clearly in the text.
Code availability
The code of the coupled model used in this study, i.e., the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2, is available at https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsv2/downloads.html.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the three anonymous reviewers whose critical comments have helped us to improve the research article significantly. We acknowledge the encouragement and necessary support of Director, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India to carry out this work. PyFerret of PMEL, NOAA is used to generate the graphics. RM gratefully acknowledges the Visiting Faculty position at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. This is INCOIS contribution number 405 and NCPOR contribution number J-120/2020-21.
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Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, all are supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.
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Pottapinjara, V., Roxy, M.K., Girishkumar, M.S. et al. Simulation of interannual relationship between the Atlantic zonal mode and Indian summer monsoon in CFSv2. Clim Dyn 57, 353–373 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05712-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05712-0