Abstract
The dominant interannual SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic is referred to as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM), which peaks in boreal summer impacts global weather patterns. The cold (warm) phase of this ocean-atmospheric coupled phenomenon enhances (weakens) the intensity of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). Observational studies show a strengthening relationship between AZM and ISMR in recent decades, providing a predictive signal for the ISMR. However, a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations in the highest emission scenario (SSP58.5) show a weakening relationship between ISMR and AZM in the future (2050–2099). The strengthening of atmospheric thermal stability over the tropical Atlantic in the warming scenario weakens the associated convection over the eastern equatorial Atlantic in response to the warm phase of AZM. This leads to weakening velocity potential response over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a weak AZM–ISMR relationship. There is no convincing evidence to indicate that either the tropical Atlantic SST bias or the AZM–ISMR teleconnection bias plays a crucial role in the potential weakening of this relationship. These results imply that ISMR prediction will become more challenging in a warming scenario as one of the major external boundary forces that influence monsoon weakens.
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Acknowledgements
This research is fully funded by the Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD) through the Research Institute Grant. The authors declare no competing financial interests. All datasets used in this study are publicly available. India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution gridded rainfall data (0.25\(^{\circ }\)X 0.25\(^{\circ }\)) are available to download from the IMD Pune website (http://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html). The HadISST used in this study are available on https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. We thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The authors thank the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We also acknowledge the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
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Sabeerali, C.T., Ajayamohan, R.S. & Praveen, V. Atlantic zonal mode-monsoon teleconnection in a warming scenario. Clim Dyn 58, 1829–1843 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05996-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05996-2