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Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

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Abstract

This article presents a seismic hazard assessment for northern Iran, where a smoothed seismicity approach has been used in combination with an updated seismic catalog and a ground motion prediction equation recently found to yield good fit with data. We evaluate the hazard over a geographical area including the seismic zones of Azerbaijan, the Alborz Mountain Range, and Kopeh-Dagh, as well as parts of other neighboring seismic zones that fall within our region of interest. In the chosen approach, seismic events are not assigned to specific faults but assumed to be potential seismogenic sources distributed within regular grid cells. After performing the corresponding magnitude conversions, we decluster both historical and instrumental seismicity catalogs to obtain earthquake rates based on the number of events within each cell, and smooth the results to account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of future earthquakes. Seismicity parameters are computed for each seismic zone separately, and for the entire region of interest as a single uniform seismotectonic region. In the analysis, we consider uncertainties in the ground motion prediction equation, the seismicity parameters, and combine the resulting models using a logic tree. The results are presented in terms of expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps and hazard curves at selected locations, considering exceedance probabilities of 2 and 10% in 50 years for rock site conditions. According to our results, the highest levels of hazard are observed west of the North Tabriz and east of the North Alborz faults, where expected PGA values are between about 0.5 and 1 g for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. We analyze our results in light of similar estimates available in the literature and offer our perspective on the differences observed. We find our results to be helpful in understanding seismic hazard for northern Iran, but recognize that additional efforts are necessary to obtain more robust estimates at specific areas of interest and different site conditions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to express their thanks to three anonymous reviewers and Editor in Chief Mariano García Fernández whose insightful comments and candid suggestions greatly helped improve the original and revised manuscripts. A message of gratitude is also extended to Art Frankel at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for providing access to the Smoothed Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis software and to Morgan Moschetti, also at the USGS, for providing advice on the use of the software. The authors also thank Andrzej Kijko at the University of Pretoria for providing access to the software for computing the seismicity parameters; and Mehdi Zare at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) in Tehran for kindly providing the original catalog data and for his assistance in interpreting previous catalog information. Access to data provided by IIEES is also greatly appreciated. This research was possible thanks to support by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. CERI is designated as a Center of Excellence by the Tennessee Board of Regents and is funded in part by the State of Tennessee under State Sunset Laws (SB 1510 and HB 1608, 2015–2016).

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  1. Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, 3890 Central Ave., Memphis, TN, 38152, USA

    Naeem Khoshnevis, Ricardo Taborda, Shima Azizzadeh-Roodpish & Chris H. Cramer

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Memphis, 3890 Central Ave., Memphis, TN, 38152, USA

    Ricardo Taborda & Shima Azizzadeh-Roodpish

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  1. Naeem Khoshnevis
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Khoshnevis, N., Taborda, R., Azizzadeh-Roodpish, S. et al. Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity. J Seismol 21, 941–964 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9645-5

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