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Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea

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Abstract

We developed a probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration with return period of 475 years. The calculations were performed for bedrock site conditions (Vs30 = 760 m/s). A logic-tree framework was applied to include epistemic uncertainty in the seismic source as well as ground motion modelling processes. Two seismic source models were developed using area source zones and smoothed seismicity, respectively. Based on available geological and seismological data, defined seismic sources were classified into four different tectonic environments. For each of the tectonic regimes three ground motion prediction equations were selected and used to estimate the ground motions at a grid of sites with spacing of 0.1° in latitude and longitude. Results show a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of Huon Peninsula and New Britain–Bougainville regions and a relatively low level of hazard in the southwestern part of Papua New Guinea. Seismic hazard disaggregation results show that in the Huon Peninsula region high seismic hazard is caused by modelled frequent moderate to large earthquakes occurring on the Ramu-Markham Fault Zone. In the New Britain–Bougainville region the distance to the subduction zone associated with the New Britain Trench mainly controls the calculated level of hazard. It is also shown that the estimated level of peak ground acceleration is very sensitive to the selection of ground motion prediction equations. Overall our results differ significantly from those of previous studies, and we surmise that these differences are due to our use of modern ground motion prediction equations and earthquake source information.

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Acknowledgments

The work presented here is supported by the PNG’s Department of Mineral Policy and Geohazards Management, and the Australian aid program through Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. We thank Hyeuk Ryu and Jonathan Griffin of Geoscience Australia for their thoughtful reviews of the initial version of the manuscript. We also thank Graeme Weatherill and Marco Pagani of Global Earthquake Model initiative for providing support for using the OQ-engine. We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers and the editor Thomas Glade for the constructive comments that greatly improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geoscience Australia, Canberra, Australia

    Hadi Ghasemi, Mark Leonard, Phil Cummins & Spiliopoulos Spiro

  2. Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

    Chris McKee, Mathew Moihoi, Felix Taranu & Eric Buri

  3. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Phil Cummins

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  1. Hadi Ghasemi
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Correspondence to Hadi Ghasemi.

Appendix: Seismogenic regions of PNG

Appendix: Seismogenic regions of PNG

1.1 Northern margins of Solomon Sea Basin and northeastern margins of Woodlark Basin and Coral Sea Basin

The most intense seismicity of the PNG region is associated with subduction at the New Britain Trench and at its southeastwards extension in the Solomon Islands. At the PNG part of this subduction zone, which underlies New Britain and Bougainville, the Woodlark or Solomon plate subducts beneath the South Bismarck plate to the north and the Pacific plate to the northeast. At the southeastern extension of this subduction zone the Australia plate is underthrusting the Pacific plate. The most intense seismicity occurs at shallow depth and is primarily thrust related. Great earthquakes (M ≥ 8) are known from this zone: a M8.0 event occurred in the western part of the zone in 1906 (Pacheco and Sykes 1992), M8.1 and M8.0 earthquakes took place at the northern cusp of the zone in 1971 (Everingham 1975), and a M8.0 event occurred in the Solomon Islands part of the zone in 2007 (http://www.globalcmt.org). Deep earthquakes, at depths as great as 600 km, from the deepest part of this subduction zone have been recorded from beneath the Bali-Witu Islands in the southern part of the Bismarck Sea, and deep subduction zone earthquakes are also recorded from a broad arcuate zone north of the 70° flexure in the New Britain Trench

1.2 Huon Peninsula, Ramu-Markham Fault Zone

The seismicity at the northern margin of the Solomon Sea Basin continues westwards but shallows beneath the Huon Peninsula. Further west, the Ramu-Markham Fault Zone marks the collisional boundary between the South Bismarck plate and the orogenic belt of mainland PNG. This shallow to intermediate-depth northeast-dipping thrust fault zone reflects convergence normal to the fault trace (Abers and McCaffrey 1994; Wallace et al. 2004). The Adelbert–Finisterre region marks the locus of continent–island arc collision that started at some time in the Early Miocene to Middle Pliocene (Jaques and Robinson 1977; Falvey and Pritchard 1984; Abbott and Silver 1991; Abbott et al. 1994; Abbott 1995), which resulted in accretion of the Adelbert–Finisterre part of the Oligocene Melanesian or Dabera–Bliri–Finisterre Arc to mainland PNG (Falvey and Pritchard 1984; Davies 2012; Baldwin et al. 2012).

1.3 Northwestern PNG

In northwestern PNG the New Guinea Trench and a narrow zone of intense shallow seismicity mark the interaction of both the North Bismarck plate and the Caroline plate with the northern margin of mainland PNG. The stress regime of the region has been described as “transpressional” (Davies 1998). One interpretation is that the North Bismarck and Caroline plates are underthrusting or are being driven obliquely into the northern margin of mainland PNG (Ripper and Letz 1991). On the other hand, Tregoning and Gorbatov (2004) used tomographic imaging of a seismic high-velocity zone extending southwards from the trench to depths of 300 km at 7°S latitude and the occurrence of large-magnitude thrust earthquakes to argue for active oblique southwards subduction at the New Guinea Trench. Pliocene igneous activity in the central orogenic belt may be associated with this interpreted underthrusting (Davies 2012).

Highly destructive great earthquakes are known from this region: a M8.0 event that took place in 1935 caused widespread damage and many human fatalities and may have generated a tsunami (Ripper et al. 1998). A number of M7 events caused significant shaking damage and generated tsunami, e.g. the 1907 M7.0 Aitape Earthquake and associated tsunami (Ripper et al. 1998), the 1998 M7.0 Aitape Earthquake and associated tsunami which resulted in >2000 human casualties (Ripper et al. 1998), and the 2002 M7.8 Wewak Earthquake and associated tsunami (Anton and McKee 2005a).

1.4 Bismarck Sea Seismic Lineament

An intense zone of shallow seismicity, the Bismarck Sea Seismic Lineament, crosses the Bismarck Sea in an approximately east–west direction from southern New Ireland to near Wewak and marks the boundary between the North Bismarck and South Bismarck plates. Characteristically, earthquake focal mechanism solutions indicate left-lateral transcurrent relative movements of the two plates. Several segments of the boundary, especially in the eastern part of the Bismarck Sea, show oblique divergence with associated active sea-floor spreading volcanism (Sinton et al. 2003). This process began in the mid-Pliocene, at 3.5 Ma (Taylor 1979).

The extreme eastern margin of the South Bismarck plate may be defined by a number of structures although the main one probably is the Weitin Fault. This fault can be traced for about 200 km southeastwards from the eastern-most part of the Bismarck Sea Seismic Lineament, cutting through southern New Ireland and extending into the northern Solomon Sea region. Earthquakes associated with the Weitin Fault commonly show left-lateral strike-slip movement. The most recent major activity on the Weitin Fault took place on 16 November 2000 (Anton and McKee 2005b) when rupture was initiated by a great earthquake (M s8.2, M w8.0). The rupture commenced near the northwestern terminus of the fault and extended about 200 km southeastwards along the fault.

1.5 Northern margin of North Bismarck plate

The northern margin of the North Bismarck plate is marked by the arcuate 1000-km-long Manus Trench and its eastwards extension, the Mathias Trench, and an associated zone of somewhat diffused shallow seismicity south of the trench. In general the level of activity along this boundary is low although a number of large (M ≥ 7) earthquakes have occurred there. The nature of the activity at the boundary is uncertain but morphology of the trench and the location of the associated seismicity suggest south-directed underthrusting of the Pacific and Caroline plates.

1.6 Woodlark Basin rifting

The plate boundary in the Woodlark Basin is divergent, marked by an approximately east–west zone of shallow earthquakes and seafloor spreading—the Woodlark Basin seafloor spreading axis (Weissel et al. 1982). The seafloor spreading characteristics of the Woodlark Basin consist of a series of east–west spreading segments connected by north–south transform faults. The axis of seafloor spreading has propagated westwards over the past ≈5 Ma and now the spreading tip is believed to be at Moresby Seamount, near Normanby Island in the D’Entrecasteaux Islands group.

The extensional stress regime in the D’Entrecasteaux Islands is further demonstrated by the exhumation of ultra-high-pressure metamorphic core complexes (e.g. Smith 1973; Davies and Warren 1988, 1992; Hill et al. 1992; Little et al. 2007). Late Miocene to Pliocene high P–T metamorphism preceded diachronous exhumation from east to west, in the same direction as rift propagation (Baldwin et al. 1993, 2004; Monteleone et al. 2007).

1.7 Papuan Peninsula

The purely extensional tectonics of the Woodlark Basin give way westwards in the Papuan Peninsula to transpressional activity along the Owen Stanley Fault Zone. Sinistral strike-slip and overthrust movements are evident along the fault zone (Ripper and Letz 1993). Convergent deformation in the northwestern part of this zone is demonstrated by folding of Quaternary sediments in the Aure Trough (Dow 1977) and shortening on north–south trending faults west of Bulolo (Wallace et al. 2004). A series of shallow M w6.4–5.5 thrust earthquakes occurred on these faults in June 2001 (PMGO, unpublished data, 2001).

1.8 Papuan Fold Belt

The Papuan Fold Belt is a belt of sub-parallel, approximately northwest-trending folds and faults up to 180 km wide and 1000 km long, which bounds the northern and eastern limits of the Fly Platform, from near Kerema to Ok Tedi and into Indonesia’s Papua Province to about 139°E. The Fly Platform is essentially the undeformed Precambrian and Palaeozoiccratonic basement at the northern margin of the Australia plate. The southwestern part of the fold belt is characterised by broad, asymmetrical (south-verging) thrust-bounded anticlines. In the northeastern part of the fold belt the structural character changes to broad synclinal thrust sheets, steep-sided elongated synclines (“boat-shaped” folds), and stacked thrust sheets (Davies 1990).

The entire Papuan Fold Belt is seismically active. The seismicity comprises two elements, the Southern Highlands seismic zone and the Mount Hagen seismic zone (Ripper and McCue 1983). The dominant seismicity is that of the Southern Highlands seismic zone, which extends throughout the Papuan Fold Belt, into Indonesia’s Papua Province to 139°E. The Mount Hagen seismic zone is a narrow belt of seismicity branching off the Southern Highlands seismic zone at about 6.5°S 144°E, and extending and deepening north–northeast past Mount Hagen and intersecting the intermediate-depth seismicity beneath the Ramu-Markham Valley. The earthquakes of the Southern Highlands seismic zone are shallow (less than 50 km deep) and are related to approximately southwest-facing thrusting and folding which is evident at the ground surface, in seismic exploration images and in well data.

The deformation and seismicity of the Papuan Fold Belt are geologically youthful features which have developed over the last 4 Ma (Davies 1990) in response to the convergence of the Australia plate and other plates and terranes to the north and northeast. This convergence is also responsible for the geologically recent rapid elevation of the central orogenic belt.

The largest earthquakes known from this zone are M7 events. A M7.5 earthquake occurred in 1922 (Ripper and Letz 1993). More recently a M w6.2 earthquake took place in the Hides area in 1992, and a M w6.6 event occurred in the Gobe area in 2000 (Anton et al. 2001). There is significant potential for earthquake damage to petroleum industry infrastructure which is located within the region of the Papua Fold Belt.

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Ghasemi, H., McKee, C., Leonard, M. et al. Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea. Nat Hazards 81, 1003–1025 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2117-8

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