Abstract
We propose an interdisciplinary approach to Time-dependent Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (T-NDSHA) for the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES) at a one-year time scale. The approach is based on the Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), with the “controlling earthquakes” (or “scenario earthquakes”) as defined by the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes. The Annual Consultation, organized by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), has been an interdisciplinary practice since 1972, with the output of “alert regions” with increased probabilities of strong earthquakes, featured by real forward forecasting characteristics. We take the year 2014, in which there were four strong earthquakes in the CSES region, as a showcase example to illustrate how the T-NDSHA may be conducted and evaluated. Considering the alert regions provided by the Annual Consultation, the expected strong ground motion parameters and the macroseismic intensities are mapped by the NDSHA algorithms considering the regional Earth structures and the focal mechanisms of historical earthquakes. The estimated intensities are then compared with the observed intensities produced by the actual earthquakes. Evaluation of the performance of such annual seismic hazard assessment is performed using a confusion matrix and Molchan error diagram, respectively, indicating that the combination of the NDSHA and the annual forecasting provides the emergency preparation with a ready-to-use mapping of expected intensities which outperforms random forecasting. The proposed approach provides a substantial improvement to the Annual Consultation, and it can naturally be applied to other regions where intermediate-term middle-range earthquake forecasts are available and where the need for emergency preparation are duly considered.
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China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) eds., 2013. Open File of the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes for the Year 2014, subject to the Panel Discussion in the Annual Consultation Meeting. Beijing: China Earthquake Administration, in Chinese.
Some regions (i.e., the special “window” here, probably with a peculiar geological structure) in which the increase in seismicity is believed to indicate the increase in the probability of occurrence of bigger earthquakes within a much larger area.
Earthquakes occurring in some special time interval, in response to stress changes (such as tidal variation or change in Coulomb failure stress caused by other earthquakes), believed to indicate the increase in the probability of occurrence of bigger earthquakes within a larger area.
Popper, K. R., 1962. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. New York: Basic Books.
https://www.globalcmt.org/. Last accessed on March 1, 2022.
https://eurocodes.jrc.ec.europa.eu/showpage.php?id=138. Last accessed on March 11, 2022.
China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) eds., 2014. Open File of the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes for the Year 2015, subject to the Panel Discussion in the Annual Consultation Meeting. Beijing: China Earthquake Administration, in Chinese.
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Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, grant number U2039207). Thanks to Prof. Yongxian Zhang of the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, for the dialogue on the Annual Consultation. Thanks are also due to Prof. V. G. Kossobokov, the guest editor of the present special issue, and two anonymous reviewers for help in improving and polishing the manuscript.
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Appendix
Appendix
1.1 Appendix I: Statistical evaluation of the Annual Consultation
Up to now, only a few results of the Annual Consultation have been published in widely accessible academic journals (especially in English). Therefore, the results, methodology and philosophy of this approach are still not well known among the international seismological communities. Statistical evaluation of the Annual Consultation has been conducted since the turn of the century (e.g., Shi et al., 2001; Zhang et al., 2002). In this appendix we recapitulate and discuss some of the important results of the statistical evaluation of the Annual Consultation.
In the work of Shi et al. (2001) and Zhang et al. (2002), the evaluation uses the R-value (Xu, 1989), that is, hit rate minus false alarm rate. In a similar perspective to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test (Swets, 1973), if the R-value is positive, then the prediction outperforms random guessing. In fact, the R-value corresponds to the vertical axis minus the horizontal axis in the ROC diagram for a specific prediction in the “alarm-based” form. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the performance of the Annual Consultation, in terms of the R-value, has been stable, with a slight increase (about 0.194 from 1990 to 1999, about 0.345 from 2000 to 2007, and about 0.353 from 2005 to 2015, Zhang, 2019). Therefore, the result of Shi et al. (2001) and Zhang et al. (2002), although not to date, is reproducible and representative.
Table 6 lists the original data used by Zhang et al. (2002), sampled by binning the whole territory of China (without considering the Tibetan plateau and Taiwan island, which were not covered by the Annual Consultation in due time) into 931 rectangular boxes. The evaluation can also be implemented by the Molchan error diagram (Molchan, 2010), as shown in Fig. 5.
Molchan error diagram of Annual Consultation results 1990–2000 in Table 6. The point in blue indicates the total
Similar to the concept of “Seismic Roulette” (Kossobokov & Shebalin, 2003; Kossobokov et al., 1999), “gambling score” is also used for the evaluation of the Annual Consultation (e.g., Zhuang & Jiang, 2012), which shows that the Annual Consultation outperforms random guessing to some extent; meanwhile, such a performance relies to a large extent on the seismicity. However, as pointed out by Molchan et al. (2017), such gambling score may underestimate the performance when the forecast is in “alarm-based” form.
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Zhang, Y., Wu, Z., Romanelli, F. et al. Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment Based on the Annual Consultation: A Case from the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES). Pure Appl. Geophys. 179, 4103–4119 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03056-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03056-2