Abstract
The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990–2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aceves R L, Park S K, Straus D J. 1996. Statistical evaluation of the VAN method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 1425–1428
CHEN Yun-tai. 1993. Introduction to earthquake prediction research [J]. Earthquake Journal, (1): 17–23 (in Chinese)
DING Guo-yu. 1993. Earthquake prediction and segment of active faults [J]. Earthquake Journal, (1): 8–10 (in Chinese)
DING Guo-yu, MEI Shi-rong, MA Zong-jin. 1981. The methods of earthquake prediction [A]. In: DING Guo-yu, MEI Shi-rong, MA Zong-jin eds-in-chief. The Selected Papers of International Earthquake Prediction Workshop [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 174–179 (in Chinese).
Geller R. 1996. Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor’s introduction [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 1291–1293
Geller R, Jackson D, Kangan Y, et al. 1997. Earthquake cannot be predicted [J]. Science, 275: 1616–1617
HUANG Shi-qi. 1991. The evaluation method of prediction success and failure [A]. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau ed-in-chief. The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Synthetic Prediction Section) [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 413–415 (in Chinese).
Kagan Y Y. 1996. VAN earthquake prediction—an attempt at statistical evaluation [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 1315–1318.
Kagan Y Y. 1997. Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment [J]. Tectonophysics, 270: 207–219.
LIU Jie, ZHUANG Jian-cang, Vere-Jones D, et al. 2000. The gain estimation of annual probability on seismic statistical model[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(1): 38–49.
MA Zong-jin, FU Zheng-xiang, ZHANG Ying-zhen, et al. 1989. Earthquake Prediction [M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1–332
MEI Shi-rong, FENG De-yi, ZHANG Guo-min, et al. 1993. Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China [M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1–498 (in Chinese)
QIN Wei-ping. 1991. The evaluation problem on earthquake prediction in one dimension [J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(2): 234–242 (in Chinese).
QIN Wei-ping, HONG Shi-zhong. 1991. The evaluation problem on earthquake prediction in one dimension — The application of table 3×2 on earthquake prediction [A]. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau ed-in-chief. The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Synthetic Prediction Section) [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 406–412 (in Chinese).
SHI Yao-lin, LIU Jie, ZHANG Guo-min. 2000. An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake prediction in 1990s [J]. Journal of Graduate School of Academica Sinica, 17(1): 63–69 (in Chinese)
Varotsos P, Eftaxias K, Vallianatos F, et al. 1996. Basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 1295–1298
WANG Xiao-qing, FU Zheng-xiang, ZHANG Li-ren, et al. 2000. The synthetic probability model of middle-long term temporal-spatial gain and its basic application [J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13(1): 50–60.
WU Zhong-liang. 1998. Self-organism critical and earthquake prediction—Review on present earthquake prediction controversy (part one) [J]. Earthquake Research in China, 14(4): 1–10 (in Chinese)
WU Zhong-liang. 1999. The seismological problem of seismic precursor statistical test—review on present earthquake prediction controversy (part two) [J]. Earthquake Research in China, 15(1): 14–22 (in Chinese)
Wyss M. 1997. Cannot earthquake be predicted? [J]. Science, 278: 487–488
XU Shao-xie. 1989. The evaluation of earthquake prediction ability [A]. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau ed-in-chief. The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Seismicity Section) [J], Beijing: Seismological Press, 586–589 (in Chinese).
ZHANG Guo-min, LI Li. 1997. On earthquake prediction in China [A]. In: Proceedings of U. S. / China Workshop on Natural Disaster Mitigation and Reduction [C], Beijing: China Ocean Press, 332–344 (in Chinese).
ZHANG Guo-min, MA Zong-jin, LIU De-fu, et al. 1984. On the procedure of earthquake prediction in China [A]. In: A Collection of Papers of International Symposium on Continental Earthquake [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 839–845 (in Chinese).
ZHU Cheng-xi, ZHU Ling-ren, ZHENG Xing-shu. 1991a. The research on the statistical test of earthquake prediction effect and statistical efficiency[A]. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau (ed-in-chief) The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Synthetic Prediction Section) [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 389–405 (in Chinese).
ZHU Ling-ren, ZHU Cheng-xi, HONG Shi-zhong. 1991b. The evaluation of earthquake prediction effect [A]. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau ed-in-chief. The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Synthetic Prediction Section) [C]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 35–45 (in Chinese).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Foundation item: The Development and Planning Project of National Important Base Research (G19980407).
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Gm., Liu, J. & Shi, Yl. An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability. Acta Seimol. Sin. 15, 550–558 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-002-0024-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-002-0024-z