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Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard and Pattern Recognition Techniques: Time-Dependent Scenarios for North-Eastern Italy

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Abstract

An integrated neo-deterministic approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed that combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space–time identification of impending strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of seismic ground motion. The integrated approach allows for a time-dependent definition of the seismic input, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions. The scenarios of expected ground motion, associated with the alarmed areas, are defined by means of full waveform modeling. A set of neo-deterministic scenarios of ground motion is defined at regional and local scales, thus providing a prioritization tool for timely preparedness and mitigation actions. Constraints about the space and time of occurrence of the impending strong earthquakes are provided by three formally defined and globally tested algorithms, which have been developed according to a pattern recognition scheme. Two algorithms, namely CN and M8, are routinely used for intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions, while a third algorithm allows for the identification of the areas prone to large events. These independent procedures have been combined to better constrain the alarmed area. The pattern recognition of earthquake-prone areas does not belong to the family of earthquake prediction algorithms since it does not provide any information about the time of occurrence of the expected earthquakes. Nevertheless, it can be considered as the termless zero-approximation, which restrains the alerted areas (e.g. defined by CN or M8) to the more precise potential location of large events. Italy is the only region of moderate seismic activity where the two different prediction algorithms, CN and M8S (i.e. a spatially stabilized variant of M8), are applied simultaneously and a real-time test of predictions, for earthquakes with magnitude larger than a given threshold (namely 5.4 and 5.6 for CN algorithm, and 5.5 for M8S algorithm) has been ongoing since 2003. The application of the CN to the Adriatic region, which is relevant for seismic hazard assessment in the northeastern part of the Italian territory, is also discussed. Examples of neo-deterministic scenarios are provided, at regional and local scale and for the cities of Trieste and Nimis (Friuli Venezia Giulia region), where the knowledge of the local geological conditions permitted a detailed evaluation of the expected ground motion.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to I. Rotwain and L. Romashkova for their precious contribution and to V. Kossobokov for the useful discussions. This research has been partly developed in the framework of the Agreement between “Protezione Civile della Regione Autonoma Friuli-Venezia Giulia” and “The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics” (ICTP), Trieste (DGR 2226 dd. 14.9.2005 and DGR 1459 dd. 24.6.2009) and benefitted by financial support from the following projects: the ASI - Pilot Project “SISMA: SISMA- Information System for Monitoring and Alert” and of Project ALPS-GPSQUAKENET (Interreg III-B - EU Alpine Space Programme). This research has benefited from funding provided by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC). Scientific papers funded by DPC do not represent its official opinion and policies.

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  1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Trieste, via E. Weiss 1, 34127, Trieste, Italy

    A. Peresan, E. Zuccolo, F. Vaccari & G. F. Panza

  2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP, 34100, Trieste, Miramare, Italy

    A. Peresan, F. Vaccari, A. Gorshkov & G. F. Panza

  3. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoe sh.79, kor.2, Moscow, 113556, Russia

    A. Gorshkov

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Peresan, A., Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F. et al. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard and Pattern Recognition Techniques: Time-Dependent Scenarios for North-Eastern Italy. Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 583–607 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0166-1

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