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A New Probabilistic Shift Away from Seismic Hazard Reality in Italy?

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Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards

Part of the book series: Springer Proceedings in Physics ((SPPHY,volume 163))

Abstract

Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy against the seismic activity observed in reality. The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, all obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), are cross-compared to the three ground shaking maps based on the duly physically and mathematically rooted neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). These eight hazard maps for Italy are tested against the available data on ground shaking. The results of comparison between predicted macroseismic intensities and those reported for past earthquakes (in the time interval 1000–2014) show that models provide rather conservative estimates, which tend to over-estimate seismic hazard at the ground shaking levels below the MCS intensity IX. Only exception is represented by the neo-deterministic maps associated with a fixed return period of 475 or 2475 years, which provide a better fit to observations, at the cost of model consistent 10 % or 2 % cases of exceedance respectively. In terms of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit criterion, although all of the eight hazard maps differ significantly from the distribution of the observed ground shaking reported in the available Italian databases, the NDSHA approach appears to outscore significantly the PSHA one.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was completed during the visit of A.K. Nekrasova at the Structure and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Earth (SAND) Group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Miramare—Trieste, Italy. AKN and VGK acknowledge the support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR grants \({\mathcal {N}}\) o 13-05-91167 and \({\mathcal {N}}\) o 14-05-92691).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

    A. Nekrasova & V. G. Kossobokov

  2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND Group, Trieste, Italy

    A. Nekrasova, A. Peresan, V. G. Kossobokov & G. F. Panza

  3. Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy

    A. Peresan & G. F. Panza

  4. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France

    V. G. Kossobokov

  5. International Seismic Safety Organization (ISSO), Arsita, Italy

    A. Peresan, V. G. Kossobokov & G. F. Panza

  6. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

    G. F. Panza

Authors
  1. A. Nekrasova
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  2. A. Peresan
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  3. V. G. Kossobokov
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  4. G. F. Panza
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Peresan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Theoretical and Mathematical Physics Department, Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Boyka Aneva

  2. Department of Computer-Aided Engineering, Faculty of Structural Engineering, University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva

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Nekrasova, A., Peresan, A., Kossobokov, V.G., Panza, G.F. (2015). A New Probabilistic Shift Away from Seismic Hazard Reality in Italy?. In: Aneva, B., Kouteva-Guentcheva, M. (eds) Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards. Springer Proceedings in Physics, vol 163. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14328-6_7

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