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A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods

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Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate the design and use of a foresight support system (FSS) combining two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Traditionally, foresight activities involves Delphi, focus group, or Estimate–Talk–Estimate techniques to collect opinions of an expert panel. Often, these techniques are not computerized and data visualization is rudimentary. Our highly-interactive FSS solves a number of inherent issues during the data collection, analysis, and results visualization processes. Despite that MCDM methods have been recommended for technology foresight, a validation with a real field experiment was still required. To evaluate our approach and FSS, we conducted a foresight exercise for the Swiss mobile payments market. Our research confirms that the use of MCDM methods supported with a computerized tool can enhance the foresight processes and results.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ESSEC Business School, Cergy Pontoise, France

    Jan Ondrus

  2. Shilder College of Business, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, HI, USA

    Tung Bui

  3. Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Yves Pigneur

Authors
  1. Jan Ondrus
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  2. Tung Bui
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  3. Yves Pigneur
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Correspondence to Jan Ondrus.

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Ondrus, J., Bui, T. & Pigneur, Y. A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods. Group Decis Negot 24, 333–358 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-014-9392-8

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