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On the statistical nature of distinct cycles in global warming variables

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Abstract

Cycle times found in many oceanic time series have been explained with references to external mechanisms that act on the systems. Here we show that when we extract cycle times from 100 sets of paired random series, we find six distinct clusters of common cycle times ranging from about 3 years to about 32 years. Cycle times, CT, get shorter when one series in a pair is an increasingly stronger leading series to the other, CT ≈ −(minus) LL-strength. This may explain the frequent finding that many global warming time series, e.g., the Southern oscillation index and the Pacific decadal oscillation, show distinct cycle times (Power spectral analysis: 3–5, 7–8, 13–15, 22–24, and 29–30 years). An important implication of these findings is that processes that strengthen the impact of one ocean variable on another may cause more frequent adverse climate conditions.

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Notes

  1. With x-coordinates in A1 to A3 and y-coordinates in B1 to B3 the angle is calculated by pasting the following Excel expression into C2: = SIGN((A2 − A1) × (B3 − B2) − (B2 − B1) × (A3 − A2)) × ACOS(((A2 − A1) × (A3 − A2) + (B2 − B1) × (B3 − B2))/(SQRT((A2 − A1)2+(B2 − B1)2) × SQRT((A3 − A2)2+(B3 − B2)2))).

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Acknowledgements

We thank the University college of Oslo and Akershus for applied sciences for supporting our study and Shineng Hu for supplying us with data for Fig. 11b in Fedorov et al. (2015).

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  1. Faculty of Technology, Art and Design, Oslo and Akershus University College for Applied Sciences, Pilestredet 35, Oslo, Norway

    Knut Lehre Seip & Øyvind Grøn

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  1. Knut Lehre Seip
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  2. Øyvind Grøn
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Correspondence to Knut Lehre Seip.

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This paper is a contribution to the special collection on ENSO Diversity. The special collection aims at improving understanding of the origin, evolution, and impacts of ENSO events that differ in amplitude and spatial patterns, in both observational and modeling contexts, and in the current as well as future climate scenarios. This special collection is coordinated by Antonietta Capotondi, Eric Guilyardi, Ben Kirtman and Sang-Wook Yeh.

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Seip, K.L., Grøn, Ø. On the statistical nature of distinct cycles in global warming variables. Clim Dyn 52, 7329–7337 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3508-6

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