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Investigating possible causal relations among physical, chemical and biological variables across regions in the Gulf of Maine

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Abstract

We examine potential causal relations between ecosystem variables in four regions of the Gulf of Maine under two major assumptions: (i) a causal cyclic variable will precede, or lead, its effect variable; e.g., a peak (through) in the causal variable will come before a peak (through) in the effect variable. (ii) If physical variables determine regional ecosystem properties, then independent clusters of observations of physical, biological and interaction variables from the same stations will show similar patterns. We use the leading–lagging-strength method to establish leading strength and potential causality, and we use principal component analysis, to establish if regions differ in their ecological characteristics. We found that several relationships for physical and chemical variables were significant, and consistent with “common knowledge” of causal relations. In contrast, relationships that included biological variables differed among regions. In spite of these findings, we found that physical and chemical characteristics of near shore and pelagic regions of the Gulf of Maine translate into unique biological assemblages and unique physical–biological interactions.

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Acknowledgments

I would like to thank Janet Campbell at Ocean process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire, UNH, for inviting me to explore some common ecosystem ideas at the laboratory. I would also like to thank Tim Moore for introducing me to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, and to Joe Salisbury for bringing me up to date on recent events in the system. Both have read and suggested improvements in the report that this article is based on. Three anonymous reviewers, as well as the Editor, provided very thorough and helpful corrections and suggestions for improvements of the manuscript. Oslo University College for Applied Sciences financed my stay at the University of New Hampshire.

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  1. Faculty of Technology, Art and Design, Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Pilestredet 35, Oslo, Norway

    Knut L. Seip

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Correspondence to Knut L. Seip.

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Handling editor: Pierluigi Viaroli

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Seip, K.L. Investigating possible causal relations among physical, chemical and biological variables across regions in the Gulf of Maine. Hydrobiologia 744, 127–143 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-014-2068-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-014-2068-1

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