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Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity

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Abstract

The slightest change in rainfall could have a significant impact on rain-fed agriculture in countries like Ghana. This study evaluated for the first time the performance of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM-DC) at 2m spatial resolution in simulating rainfall in Ghana for the base period 1981–2010. It further analysed the projected changes in seasonal rainfall pattern across different agro-ecological zones for the twenty-first century under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios over Ghana. Ensemble mean of simulated rainfall data (2011–2099) generated by 43 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used as base factors for local future climate scenarios generation. Performance analysis of SDSM-DC shows a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, percent bias and RMSE observations standard deviation ratio of 0.88, −19 and 0.34, respectively. Generally, seasonal rainfall amount is expected to increase between 10 and 40% in all the agro-ecological zones in Ghana by the end of the twenty-first century. Off-season rainfall in December–February shows more than 100% increase in the Guinea Savannah zone. Rainfall projected under RCP 4.5 was on average 2% higher than RCP 8.5 in all the seasons throughout the century. Based on these results, it is appropriate to suggest a high incidence of flooding across Ghana in the twenty-first century. This could have dire consequences on agriculture which contribute to a large proportion of Ghana’s GDP. Therefore, for sustainable food production and security in the twenty-first century, Ghana needs climate adaptation policies and programmes that encourage the design and implementation of early warning systems of meteorological hazards and the introduction of new crop varieties that are flood tolerant.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the developers of SDSM and the Loughborough University for making the software and NCEP dataset freely available. The authors are sincerely grateful to Professor Robert L. Wilby who helped to improve the scientific message of the manuscript for clarity. Finally, the authors thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that have improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Life and Earth Sciences (Including Health and Agriculture), Pan African University, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

    Enoch Bessah

  2. Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, PMB, Kumasi, Ghana

    Enoch Bessah & Sampson K. Agodzo

  3. Faculty of Renewable Natural Resources, Department of Silviculture and Forest Management, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, PMB, Kumasi, Ghana

    Emmanuel A. Boakye

  4. Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Emmanuel Nyadzi

  5. Department of Water Resources Development, School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya, Ghana

    Isaac Larbi

  6. Department of Geoinformatics and Spatial Development, University of Development Studies, Navrongo, Ghana

    Alfred Awotwi

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  1. Enoch Bessah
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Appendix

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Table 5 Projected changes (%) in seasonal rainfall in the for the period 2020s 92011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) from observed records (1981–2010) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenario.
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Bessah, E., Boakye, E.A., Agodzo, S.K. et al. Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 12342–12365 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01171-5

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