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Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method

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Abstract

In this study, the applicability of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in downscaling precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, China was investigated. The investigation includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the validation of the model using independent period of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) outputs of scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model, and the prediction of the future regional precipitation scenarios. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily precipitation data (1961–2000) from 136 weather stations in the Yangtze River basin. The results showed that: (1) there existed good relationship between the observed and simulated precipitation during the calibration period of 1961–1990 as well as the validation period of 1991–2000. And the results of simulated monthly and seasonal precipitation were better than that of daily. The average R 2 values between the simulated and observed monthly and seasonal precipitation for the validation period were 0.78 and 0.91 respectively for the whole basin, which showed that the SDSM had a good applicability on simulating precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. (2) Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010–2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the Yangtze River basin would present a trend of deficit precipitation in 2020s; insignificant changes in the 2050s; and a surplus of precipitation in the 2080s as compared to the mean values of the base period. The annual mean precipitation would increase by about 15.29% under scenario A2 and increase by about 5.33% under scenario B2 in the 2080s. The winter and autumn might be the more distinct seasons with more predicted changes of precipitation than in other seasons. And (3) there would be distinctive spatial distribution differences for the change of annual mean precipitation in the river basin, but the most of Yangtze River basin would be dominated by the increasing trend.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was financially supported by Ministry of Water Resources’ special funds for scientific research on public causes, (No. 200901042), fully supported by Key Project of National Science and Technology during the 11th Five-Year Plan (No. 2006BAD03A16), National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 40801015), State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering fund from Hohai University (Project No. 2008zd07). We would like to thank the National Climate Centre (NCC) in Beijing for providing valuable climate datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Long Pan Road 159, Nanjing, 210037, China

    Jin Huang, Jinchi Zhang, Zengxin Zhang & Jian Yao

  2. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China

    ChongYu Xu

  3. Nanjing Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Science, Nanjing, 210008, China

    Baoliang Wang

  4. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

    ChongYu Xu

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  1. Jin Huang
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  2. Jinchi Zhang
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  3. Zengxin Zhang
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Correspondence to Jinchi Zhang.

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Huang, J., Zhang, J., Zhang, Z. et al. Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 781–792 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0441-9

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