Abstract
Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km2 area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akgün A, Bulut F (2007) GIS-based landslide susceptibility for Arsin-Yomra (Trabzon, North Turkey) region. Environ Geol 51:1377–1387
Atkinson PM, Massari R (1998) Generalized linear modelling of landslide susceptibility in the Central Apennines, Italy. Comput Geosci 24:373–385
Ayalew L, Yamagishi H (2005) The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda–Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan. Geomorphology 65:15–31
Bai S, Lü G, Wang J, Zhou P, Ding L (2011) GIS-based rare events logistic regression for landslide-susceptibility mapping of Lianyungang, China. Environ Earth Sci 62(1):139–149
Bednarik M, Yilmaz I, Marschalko M (2012) Landslide hazard and risk assessment: a case study from the Hlohovec–Sered’ landslide area in south-west, Slovakia. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0257-7
Beven KJ, Kirkby MJ (1979) A physical based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol Sci Bull 24(1):43–69
Bhandary NP, Dahal RK, Timilsina M, Yatabe R (2013) Rainfall event-based landslide susceptibility zonation mapping. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0715-x
Carson MA, Petley D (1970) The existence of threshold hillslopes in the denudation of the landscape. Trans Inst Br Geogr 49:71–96
Cascini L (2008) Applicability of landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning at different scales. Eng Geol 102:164–177
Çevik E, Topal T (2003) GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for a problematic segment of the natural gas pipeline, Hendek (Turkey). Environ Geol 44:949–962
Chauhan S, Sharma M, Arora MK (2010) Landslide susceptibility zonation of the Chamoli region, Garhwal Himalayas, using logistic regression model. Landslides 7:411–423
Chen Z, Wang J (2007) Landslide hazard mapping using logistic regression model in Mackenzie Valley Canada. Nat Hazards 42:75–89
Chung CJF, Fabbri AG (2003) Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Nat Hazards 30(3):451–472
Constantin M, Bednarik M, Jurchescu MC, Vlaicu M (2011) Landslide susceptibility assessment using the bivariate statistical analysis and the index of entropy in the Sibiciu Basin (Romania). Environ Earth Sci 63(2):397–406
Cruden DM (1991) A simple definition of a landslide. Bull Int Assoc Eng Geol 43:27–29
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100(3–4):429–443
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Yamanaka M, Nishino K (2006) Rainfall triggered flow-like landslides: understanding from southern hills of Kathmandu, Nepal and northern Shikoku, Japan. In: Proceedings of the 10th international congress of IAEG, the geological society of London, IAEG 2006 paper number 819, pp 1–14 (CD-ROM)
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Dhakal S, Paudyal P (2008a) Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence. Geomorphology 102(3–4):496–510. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.05.041
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Masuda T, Nishino K (2008b) GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping. Environ Geol 54(2):314–324
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Nishino K (2008c) Failure characteristics of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in granitic terrains of Shikoku Island of Japan. Environ Geol 56(7):1295–1310. doi:10.1007/s00254-008-1228-x
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Yamanaka M, Dhakal S, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2009) Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. Environ Geol 58(3):567–586
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Yamanaka M, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2010) Statistical and deterministic landslide hazard assessment in the Himalayas of Nepal. In: Williams et al (eds) IAEG 2010 conference, geologically active, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 1053–1060
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Yamanaka M, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2011) Rainfall-induced landslides in the residual soil of andesitic terrain, western Japan. J Nepal Geol Soc 42:127–142
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Bhandary NP, Poudel PP, Nonomura A, Yatabe R (2012) A replication of landslide hazard mapping at catchment scale. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk 3(2):161–192
Dai FC, Lee CF (2002) Landslide Characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island Hongkong. Geomorphology 42:213–228
Dai FC, Lee CF, Li J, Xu ZW (2001) Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain in Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Environ Geol 40:381–391
Das I, Sahoo S, van Westen C, Stein A, Hack R (2010) Landslide susceptibility assessment using logistic regression and its comparison with a rock mass classification system, along a road section in the Northern Himalaya (India). Geomorphology 114:627–637
Ercanoglu M, Temiz FA (2011) Application of logistic regression and fuzzy operators to landslide susceptibility assessment in Azdavay (Kastamonu, Turkey). Environ Earth Sci 64(4):949–964
Erener A, Düzgün HSB (2012) Landslide susceptibility assessment: what are the effects of mapping unit and mapping method? Environ Earth Sci 66(3):859–877
Ermini L, Catani F, Casagli N (2005) Artificial neural networks applied to landslide susceptibility assessment. Geomorphology 66:327–343
Fell R, Corominas J, Bonard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ (2008) Commentary guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102(3–4):85–98
Frattini P, Crosta G, Carrara A (2010) Techniques for evaluating the performance of landslide susceptibility models. Eng Geol 111:62–72
Ghimire M (2011) Landslide occurrence and its relation with terrain factors in the Siwalik Hills, Nepal: case study of susceptibility assessment in three basins. Nat Hazards 56:299–320
Ghosh S, van Westen CJ, Carranza EJM, Jetten VG, Cardinali M, Rossi M, Guzzetti F (2012) Generating event-based landslide maps in a data-scarce Himalayan environment for estimating temporal and magnitude probabilities. Eng Geol 128:49–62. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.03.016
Glade T, Crozier MJ (2005) The nature of landslide hazard and impact. In: Glade T, Anderson M, Crozier M (eds) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, Chichester, pp 43–74
Glade T, Kadereit A, Dikau R (2001) Landslides at the Tertiary escarpments of Rheinhessen, Germany. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie Suppl 125:65–92
Gómez H, Kavzoglu T (2005) Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using artificial neural networks in Jabonosa River Basin, Venezuela. Eng Geol 78:11–27
Guzzetti F (2005) Landslide hazard and risk assessment. PhD thesis, Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Univestität Bonn, Germany (unpublished)
Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1–4):181–216
Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Ardizzone F, Cardinali M, Galli M (2006) Estimating the quality of landslide susceptibility models. Geomorphology 81(1–2):166–184
Guzzetti F, Mondini AC, Cardinali M, Fiorucci F, Santangelo M, Chang K-T (2012) Landslide inventory maps: new tools for an old problem. Earth Sci Rev 112:42–66
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York
Huang H-P, Yang K-C, Lin B-W (2013) Statistical evaluation of the effect of earthquake with other related factors on landslide susceptibility: using the watershed area of Shihmen reservoir in Taiwan as a case study. Environ Earth Sci 69(7):2151–2166
Ives JD, Messerli B (1981) Mountain hazard mapping in Nepal: introduction to an applied mountain research project. Mt Res Dev 1:223–230
Jaiswal P, van Westen CJ, Jetten V (2010) Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10(6):1253–1267
Kayastha P, Dhital MR, Smedt FD (2012) Landslide susceptibility mapping using the weight of evidence method in the Tinau watershed, Nepal. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0163-z
Kienholz H, Schneider G, Bichsel M, Grunder M, Mool P (1984) Mapping of mountain hazards and slope stability. Mt Res Dev 4:247–266
Lee S (2005) Application of logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and remote sensing data journals. Int J Remote Sens 26(7):1477–1491. doi:10.1080/01431160412331331012
Lee S, Choi J (2004) Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and the weight-of-evidence model. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 18:789–814
Lee S, Touch S (2006) Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area, Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Environ Geol 50(6):847–855
Lee S, Ryu JH, Min K, Won JS (2003) Landslide susceptibility analysis using GIS and artificial neural network. Earth Surf Proc Land 28:1361–1376
Magliulo P (2012) Assessing the susceptibility to water-induced soil erosion using a geomorphological, bivariate statistics-based approach. Environ Earth Sci 67(6):1801–1820
Melchiorre C, Matteucci M, Azzoni A, Zanchi A (2008) Artificial neural networks and cluster analysis in landslide susceptibility zonation. Geomorphology 94(3–4):379–400
Mihalić S (1998) Recommendations for landslide hazard and risk mapping in Croatia. Geol Croat 51(2):195–204
Nefeslioglu HA, Gokceoglu C (2011) Probabilistic risk assessment in medium scale for rainfall induced earthflows: Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey). Math Prob Eng. doi:10.1155/2011/280431
Nefeslioglu HA, Gokceoglu C, Sonmez H (2008) An assessment on the use of logistic regression and artificial neural networks with different sampling strategies for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. Eng Geol 97:171–191
Ohlmacher GO, Davis JC (2003) Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA. Eng Geol 69:331–343
Ozdemir A (2011) Landslide susceptibility mapping using Bayesian approach in the Sultan Mountains (Akşehir, Turkey). Nat Hazards 59(3):1573–1607. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9853-1
Oztekin B, Topal T (2005) GIS-based detachment susceptibility analyses of a cut slope in limestone, Ankara–Turkey. Environ Geol 49(1):124–132. doi:10.1007/s00254-005-0071-6
Pachauri AK, Pant M (1992) Landslide hazard mapping based on geological attributes. Eng Geol 32:81–100
Park S, Choi C, Kim B, Kim J (2013) Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio, analytic hierarchy process, logistic regression, and artificial neural network methods at the Inje area. Korea Environ Earth Sci 68(5):1443–1464
Poudyal CP, Chang C, Oh H-J, Lee S (2010) Landslide susceptibility maps comparing frequency ratio and artificial neural networks: a case study from the Nepal Himalaya. Environ Earth Sci 61(5):1049–1064
Pourghasemi HR, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C (2012) Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0217-2
Ramani SE, Pitchaimani K, Gnanamanickam VR (2011) GIS based-landslide susceptibility mapping of Tevankarai Ar Sub-watershed, Kodaikanal, India using binary logistic regression analysis. Mt Sci 8:505–517
Regmi NR, Giardino JR, Vitek JD (2010) Modeling susceptibility to landslides using the weight of evidence approach: Western Colorado, USA. Geomorphology 115:172–187
Ruff M, Czurda K (2008) Landslide susceptibility analysis is with a heuristic approach in the eastern Alps (Vorarlberg, Austria). Geomorphology 94:314–324
Roering JJ, Kirchner JW, Dietrich WE (2005) Characterizing structural and lithologic controls on deep-seated landsliding: implications for topographic relief and landscape evolution in the Oregon Coast Range, USA. Geol Soc Am Bull 117(5/6):654–668
Rupke J, Cammeraat E, Seijmonsbergen AC, van Westen CJ (1988) Engineering geomorphology of Widentobel catchment, Appenzell and Sankt Gallen, Switzerland: a geomorphological inventory system applied to geotechnical appraisal of slope stability. Eng Geol 26:33–68
Schicker R, Moon V (2012) Comparison of bivariate and multivariate statistical approaches in landslide susceptibility mapping at a regional scale. Geomorphology 161–162:10–57
Schmidt F, Persson A (2003) Comparison of DEM data capture and topographic wetness indices. Precis Agric 4(2):179–192
Sharma LP, Patel N, Ghose MK, Debnath P (2011) Landslide vulnerability assessment and zonation through ranking of causative parameters based on landslide density-derived statistical indicators. Geocarto Int 26(6):491–504
Stöcklin J, Bhattarai KD (1978) Geology of Kathmandu area and central Mahabharat Range Nepal Himalaya Kathmandu. HMG/UNDP mineral exploration project, technical report, New York
Suzen ML, Doyuran V (2004) A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate. Environ Geol 45(5):665–679. doi:10.1007/s00254-003-0917-8
Uchida T, Kataoka S, Iwao T, Matsuo O, Terada H, Nakano Y, Sugiura N, Osanai N (2004) A study on methodology for assessing the potential of slope failures during earthquakes. Technical note of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, p 91 (in Japanese with English summary)
Van Westen CJ (2000) The modelling of landslide hazards using GIS. Surv Geophys 21:241–255
van Westen CJ, Rengers N, Soeters R (2003) Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment. Nat Hazards 30:399–419
van Westen CJ, Castellanos AEA, Sekhar LK (2008) Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazards and vulnerability assessment: an overview. Eng Geol 102(3–4):112–131
Varnes DJ (1984) International association of engineering geology commission on landslides and other mass movements on slopes: landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. UNESCO, Paris
Wilson JP, Gallant JC (2000) Secondary terrain attributes. In: Wilson JP, Gallant JC (eds) Terrain analysis. Wiley, New York
Xie M, Esaki T, Cai M (2004) A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard. Environ Geol 46:840–850
Yesilnacar E, Topal T (2005) Landslide susceptibility mapping: a comparison of logistic regression and neural networks methods in a medium scale study, Hendek region (Turkey). Eng Geol 79(3–4):251–266
Yilmaz I (2010) Comparison of landslide susceptibility mapping methodologies for Koyulhisar, Turkey: conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machine. Environ Earth Sci 61(4):821–836
Zhu L, Huang J (2006) GIS-based logistic regression method for landslide susceptibility mapping in regional scale. Zhejiang Univ Sci A 7(12):2007–2017
Acknowledgments
The author is thankful to Prof. Ryuichi Yatabe for providing opportunity to perform this research in Geo-disaster Laboratory, Ehime University, under the financial support of Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS). Dr. Netra Prakash Bhadary, Dr. Manita Timilsina and Mr. Anjan Kumar Dahal are sincerely acknowledged for their technical support during preparation of this paper. This research is partly supported by Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dahal, R.K. Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya. Environ Earth Sci 71, 5145–5164 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2917-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2917-7