Abstract
The tectonically active southwestern part of Turkey is dominated by the Aegean Extensional Province. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard for the cities in SW Turkey using a probabilistic approach. As part of this research, a new earthquake database based on a unified moment magnitude scale was created, which contains shallow crustal earthquakes from 1000 to 2021. The catalog's foreshock and aftershock occurrences were excluded depending on the space–time windows, and a catalog completeness analysis was conducted. The uncertainty in magnitude determination was taken into account. The seismic sources were defined as homogeneous area source zones, taking into consideration the active fault zones. The activity rate and the Gutenberg–Richter b parameter as earthquake hazard parameters for each seismic source have been evaluated by the Kijko–Smit maximum likelihood estimation method. An "efficacy test," which uses the average log likelihood value (LLH), was performed to find the suitable ground motion prediction equations for SW Turkey. The maximum magnitude (Mmax) of each seismic source was calculated based on the regional rupture characteristics and the Kijko–Sellevoll methods. Seismic hazard maps for SW Turkey were developed for Peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration with periods of 0.2 and 1 s and for bedrock with a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years by using Geographical Information System software. Based on this study, the PGA values on the bedrock in SW Turkey range from 0.253 to 0.572 g. As part of this research, seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectrums were created for the settlement areas of the cities in SW Turkey. In addition to this PSHA, PGA values at the settlement areas with events at probable future rupture locations were estimated for different site amplification classes.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Code and data availability
The earthquake data are collected from the SHEEC catalog prepared by Stucchi et al. (2013), the catalog prepared by Kadirioğlu et al. (2018), and Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University. The MATLAB (R2021a) software package is used for the calculation of earthquake hazard parameters (https://www.mathworks.com/, last access: October 20, 2021). The R-CRISIS (V 20.0) software package, developed by Ordaz et al. (2017), is used for analyzing the seismicity of the study area (http://www.r-crisis.com/download/binaries/ last access: October 20, 2021). A GIS software, ArcGIS Pro, is used for developing hazard maps of the study area (https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview, last access: October 20, 2021).
References
Abrahamson NA, Silva WJ, Kamai R (2014) Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions. Earthq Spectra 30:1025–1055. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913eqs198m
Abramowitz M, Stegun IA (1970) Handbook of mathematical functions, 9th edn. Dover Publication, New York
Aki K (1965) Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the Gutenberg–Richter formula and its confidence limits. Bull Earthq Res Inst 43:237–239
Akkar S, Azak T, Çan T et al (2018) Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey. Bull Earthq Eng 16:3197–3228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0349-1
Akkar S, Bommer JJ (2010) Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the mediterranean region, and the middle east. Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.2.195
Akkar S, Bommer JJ (2007) Empirical prediction equations for peak ground velocity derived from strong-motion records from Europe and the middle east. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:511–530. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060141
Akkar S, Cagnan Z, Yenier E et al (2010) The recently compiled Turkish strong motion database: preliminary investigation for seismological parameters. J Seismol 14:457–479. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-009-9176-9
Akkar S, Sandıkkaya MA, Bommer JJ (2014) Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the middle east. Bull Earthq Eng 12:359–387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4
Aktug B, Nocquet JM, Cingöz A et al (2009) Deformation of western Turkey from a combination of permanent and campaign GPS data: limits to block-like behavior. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 114:B10404
Aktuğ B, Tiryakioğlu İ, Sözbilir H et al (2021) GPS derived finite source mechanism of the 30 October 2020 Samos earthquake, Mw = 6.9, in the Aegean extensional region. Turk J Earth Sci 30:718–737. https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-2101-18
Ambraseys NN, Finkel CF (1987) Seismicity of Turkey and neighbouring regions, 1899–1915. In: Annales geophysicae. Series B Terrestrial and planetary physics, pp 701–725
Ambraseys NN, Finkel CF (1995) Seismicity of Turkey and adjacent areas: a historical review, 1500–1800. MS Eren
Anbazhagan P, Abraham GS (2020) Region specific seismic hazard analysis of Krishna Raja Sagara Dam. India Eng Geol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105512
Anbazhagan P, Bajaj K, Moustafa SSR, Al-Arifi NSN (2015) Maximum magnitude estimation considering the regional rupture character. J Seismol 19:695–719
Asti R, Faccenna C, Rossetti F et al (2019) The Gediz supradetachment system (SW Turkey): magmatism, tectonics, and sedimentation during crustal extension. Tectonics 38:1414–1440. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018tc005181
Bayrak Y, Bayrak E (2012) An evaluation of earthquake hazard potential for different regions in western Anatolia using the historical and instrumental earthquake data. Pure Appl Geophys 169:1859–1873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0439-3
Bazzurro P, Allin Cornell C (1999) Disaggregation of seismic hazard. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89:501–520
Bilal M, Askan A (2014) Relationships between felt intensity and recorded ground-motion parameters for Turkey. Bull Seismol Soc Am 104:484–496. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130093
Bindi D, Cotton F, Kotha SR et al (2017) Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas. J Seismol 21:1201–1218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9661-5
Bindi D, Pacor F, Luzi L et al (2011) Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database. Bull Earthq Eng 9:1899–1920. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9313-z
Bommer JJ, Abrahamson NA (2006) Why do modern probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses often lead to increased hazard estimates? Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:1967–1977
Boore DM, Stewart JP, Seyhan E, Atkinson GM (2014) NGA-west2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthq Spectra 30:1057–1085. https://doi.org/10.1193/070113eqs184m
Bozkurt E (2001) Neotectonics of Turkey–a synthesis. Geodin Acta 14:3–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2001.11432432
Campbell KW, Bozorgnia Y (2014) NGA-west2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1087–1115. https://doi.org/10.1193/062913eqs175m
Cauzzi C, Faccioli E (2008) Broadband (0.05 to 20 s) prediction of displacement response spectra based on worldwide digital records. J Seismol 12:453–475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9098-y
Cauzzi C, Faccioli E, Vanini M, Bianchini A (2015) Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records. Bull Earthq Eng 13:1587–1612. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y
Chiou BSJ, Youngs RR (2014) Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthq Spectra 30:1117–1153. https://doi.org/10.1193/072813eqs219m
Cornell CA (1968) Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 58:1583–1606
Cornell CA, Vanmarcke EH (1969) The major influences on seismic risk. In: Proceedings of the 4th world conference on earthquake engineering, pp 69–83
Delavaud E, Scherbaum F, Kuehn N, Allen T (2012) Testing the global applicability of ground-motion prediction equations for active shallow crustal regions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:707–721. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110113
Delavaud E, Scherbaum F, Kuehn N, Riggelsen C (2009) Information-theoretic selection of ground-motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis: an applicability study using Californian data. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3248–3263. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090055
Deniz A (2006) Estimation of earthquake insurance premium rates based on stochastic methods. MSc Thesis, Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Civil Engineering
Deniz A, Korkmaz KA, Irfanoglu A (2010) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Izmir, Turkey. Pure Appl Geophys 167:1475–1484. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0129-6
Derras B, Bard PY, Cotton F (2014) Towards fully data driven ground-motion prediction models for Europe. Bull Earthq Eng 12:495–516. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9481-0
Dipova N, Cangir B (2017) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the two layer fault system of Antalya (SW Turkey) area. J Seismol 21:1067–1077. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9652-6
EERI Committee on Seismic Risk, Shah HC (1984) Glossary of terms for probabilistic seismic risk and hazard analysis. Earthq Spectra 1:33–40. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585255
Emre O, Duman TY, Ozalp S et al (2018) Active fault database of Turkey. Bull Earthq Eng 16:3229–3275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0041-2
Gupta ID (2002) The state of the art in seismic hazard analysis. ISET J Earthq Technol 39:311–346
Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34:185–188
İnce GÇ, Yılmazoğlu MU (2021) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Muğla, Turkey. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04633-9
Kadirioğlu FT, Kartal RF, Kılıç T et al (2018) An improved earthquake catalogue (M ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012). Bull Earthq Eng 16:3317–3338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0064-8
Kayabali K (2002) Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data. Eng Geol 63:221–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00082-5
Kijko A (2016) Ha3 Matlab code, released 3.01. Seismic hazard assessment for selected area e-mail: Andrzej kijko@ up ac za University of Pretoria, South Africa
Kijko A, Sellevoll MA (1989) Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters from incomplete data files. Part I. Utilization of extreme and complete catalogs with different threshold magnitudes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654
Kijko A, Singh M (2011) Statistical tools for maximum possible earthquake magnitude estimation. Acta Geophys 59:674–700. https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-011-0012-6
Kijko A, Skordas E, Wahlström R, Mäntyniemi P (1993) Maximum likelihood estimation of seismic hazard for Sweden. Nat Hazards 7:41–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00595678
Kijko A, Smit A (2012) Extension of the Aki-Utsu b-Value estimator for incomplete catalogs. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1283–1287. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110226
Kırım S, Budakoğlu E, Horasan G (2021) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Isparta province (Turkey) and mapping based on GIS. Arab J Geosci 14:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08653-4
Koçyiğit A, Özacar AA (2003) Extensional neotectonic regime through the NE edge of the outer isparta angle, SW Turkey: new field and seismic data. Turk J Earth Sci 12:67–90
Koral H (2000) Surface rupture and rupture mechanism of the October 1, 1995 (Mw = 6.2) Dinar earthquake, SW Turkey. Tectonophysics 327:15–24
Law M, Colling A (2016) Getting to know ArcGIS Pro, 2nd edn. ESRI Press
McClusky S, Balassanian S, Barka A et al (2000) Global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 105:5695–5719. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jb900351
Mueller CS (2010) The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the central and Eastern United States. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:699–711. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090114
Ordaz M, Martinelli F, Aguilar A, et al (2017) R-CRISIS. Program and platform for computing seismic hazard
Över S, Yilmaz H, Pinar A et al (2013) Plio-quaternary stress state in the Burdur Basin, SW-Turkey. Tectonophysics 588:56–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.12.009
Richter CF (1935) An instrumental earthquake magnitude scale. Bull Seismol Soc Am 25:1–32
Sayil N, Osmanşahin I (2008) An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia. Nat Hazards 44:51–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9141-2
Scherbaum F, Delavaud E, Riggelsen C (2009) Model selection in seismic hazard analysis: an information-theoretic perspective. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080347
Sitharam TG, Anbazhagan P (2007) Seismic hazard analysis for the Bangalore region. Nat Hazards 40:261–278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-0012-z
Stewart JP, Douglas J, Javanbarg M et al (2015) Selection of ground motion prediction equations for the global earthquake model. Earthq Spectra 31:19–45
Stucchi M, Rovida A, Capera AAG et al (2013) The SHARE European earthquake catalogue (SHEEC) 1000–1899. J Seismol 17:523–544
Taymaz T, Price S (1992) The 1971 May 12 Burdur earthquake sequence, SW Turkey: a synthesis of seismological and geological observations. Geophys J Int 108:589–603. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb04638.x
TBEC, Turkey Building Earthquake Code (2018) DEMP, Ministry of Interior, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Ankara
Tinti S, Mulargia F (1985) Completeness analysis of a seismic catalog. In: Annales geophysicae (1983). pp 407–414
Türe O, Çobanoğlu İ, Gül M, Karacan E (2021) Seismic record approach for the evaluation of natural hazards: a key study from SW Anatolia/Turkey. Environ Earth Sci 80:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09779-0
Utsu T (1965) A method for determining the value of “b” in a formula log n = a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes. Geophys Bull Hokkaido Univ 13:99–103
Wason HR, Das R, Sharma ML (2012) Magnitude conversion problem using general orthogonal regression. Geophys J Int 190:1091–1096. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05520.x
Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Istanbul Technical University Research Fund (Istanbul, Turkey). The authors would like to thank Prof. Andrzej KIJKO for sharing the MATLAB codes used for the calculation of earthquake hazard parameters. The reviewers of the manuscript are thanked for their careful reading of the first version of the manuscript, their critical review, recommendations, and very helpful comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Alpyürür, M., Lav, M.A. An assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for the cities in Southwest Turkey using historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs. Nat Hazards 114, 335–365 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05392-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05392-x