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Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

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Abstract

We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989–1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon’s map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

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Acknowledgments

The need for the study summarized in this paper was born in the frame of the research project partly financed by the DIBt (https://www.dibt.de/) for the reappraisal of the seismic hazard of Germany for the National Annex to the updated Eurocode 8. We thank two anonymous Reviewers and the Editorial board who helped us to improve our work. Scripts downloaded from the Baker Research Group in Stanford (http://stanford.edu/~bakerjw/GMPEs.html, last accessed May 2016) were used to compute the predictions from the NGA2 models; we thanks the authors for sharing their programs. The R software (R Development Core Team, 2008; http://www.r-project.org, last accessed May 2016) has been used in this study to perform the regressions. In particular, the package lme4 (Bates et al. 2015; https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/lme4/news.html, last accessed May 2016) has been used for mixed-effect regressions. The NGA-West2 flat file is available at the PEER web page (http://peer.berkeley.edu/ngawest2/final-products/, last accessed May 2016).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ, Potsdam, Germany

    D. Bindi, F. Cotton, S. R. Kotha, C. Bosse, D. Stromeyer & G. Grünthal

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  1. D. Bindi
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  2. F. Cotton
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  3. S. R. Kotha
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  4. C. Bosse
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  5. D. Stromeyer
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  6. G. Grünthal
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Correspondence to D. Bindi.

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Bindi, D., Cotton, F., Kotha, S.R. et al. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas. J Seismol 21, 1201–1218 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9661-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9661-5

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