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A New Risk Assessment Model for Underground Mine Water Inrush Based on AHP and D–S Evidence Theory

Ein neues Modell basierend auf einem analytischen Hierarchieprozess (AHP) und der Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Evidenztheorie für die Risikoeinschätzung untertägiger Wassereinbrüche

Un nuevo modelo de evaluación de riesgos para la irrupción de agua en minas subterráneas basado en la teoría de evidencia de AHP y D-S

基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的矿井突水风险评价模型

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Abstract

Effective risk assessment of underground water inrush is the prerequisite and basis for mine water hazard control and safe mining. An inrush risk assessment system was set up, based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors of mine water inrush risk and improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A new judgment matrix was constructed based on a scale of 1–9. The Dempster-Shafer (D–S) synthetic rule was improved on the basis of improved AHP; the frame of discernment proposed includes water-inrush, critical condition, and no water-inrush. A water-inrush integration decision-making model was thus established. Finally, using a typical underground mine in China, the new model was verified using this method. The probability of water inrush was 0.822, which is broadly in line with the actual situation, indicating that the model is feasible and applicable.

Zusammenfassung

Eine effective Risikoeinschätzung für untertägige Wassereinbrüche ist die Voraussetzung und Basis der Kontrolle von Bergwassergefahren und für sicheren Bergbau. Ein System der Einbruchsrisikoeinschätzung wurde erstellt, basierend auf einer umfassenden Analyse der Faktoren von Wassereinbruchsrisiken und einem verbesserten analytischen Hierarchieprozess (AHP). Eine neue Beurteilungsmatrix mit einem Maßstab von 1-9 wurde konstruiert. Basierend auf dem verbesserten AHP, wurde die synthetische Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Regel verbessert. Der vorgeschlagene Urteilsrahmen umfaßt Wassereinbruch, kritische Bedingungen, und kein Wassereinbruch. Damit waren Entscheidungen möglich. Unter Nutzung einer typischen Untertagemine in China wurde schließlich das Modell verifiziert. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Wassereinbruchs war 0.822, mit der tatsächlichen Situation etwa übereinstimmend. Somit war das Modell als machbar und anwendbar bezeugt.

Resumen

La evaluación efectiva del riesgo de la irrupción de agua subterránea es el requisito previo y la base para el control de los riesgos del agua de la mina y de la seguridad de la minería. Se estableció un sistema de evaluación de riesgo de irrupción, basado en un análisis exhaustivo de los factores del riesgo de entrada de agua de la mina y el proceso mejorado de jerarquía analítica (AHP). Se construyó una nueva matriz de juicio basada en una escala de 1-9. La regla sintética de Dempster-Shafer (D-S) se mejoró sobre la base de la mejora de AHP; el marco de discernimiento propuesto incluye irrupción de agua, condición crítica y no irrupción de agua. De este modo se estableció un modelo de toma de decisiones de integración de la irrupción de agua. Finalmente, utilizando una mina subterránea típica en China, el nuevo modelo se verificó utilizando este método. La probabilidad de entrada de agua fue de 0,822, lo que está en línea con la situación actual indicando que el modelo es factible y aplicable.

抽象

有效的矿井突水危险性评价是矿井水害防治和安全开采的前提与基础。基于矿井突水危险因素综合分析和改进的层次分析法(AHP),建立了矿井突水危险性评价系统。用1-9 标度法构造了一个新的判断矩阵。在改进的AHP 基础上,进一步改进Dempster-Shafer (D-S)合成规则,建立由突水、临界和不突水组成的识别框架,构建了突水综合决策模型。以中国一个典型的地下煤矿为例,验证了该模型;突水概率为0.822,与实际情况吻合,证明了该模型的可行性和适用性。

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Wangjialing no. 2 coal mine for its support of hazard determination. This study was supported by the: National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0602903), National Natural Science Foundation of China (51574013, 51774039), Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, CUMT (SKLCRSM18KF006), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (FRF-TP-17-024A1).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

    Zhuen Ruan, Cuiping Li, Aixiang Wu & Yong Wang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    Zhuen Ruan & Yong Wang

  3. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education of China for Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

    Cuiping Li & Aixiang Wu

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  1. Zhuen Ruan
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Correspondence to Cuiping Li or Aixiang Wu.

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Ruan, Z., Li, C., Wu, A. et al. A New Risk Assessment Model for Underground Mine Water Inrush Based on AHP and D–S Evidence Theory. Mine Water Environ 38, 488–496 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-018-00575-0

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