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Assessment of Water Inrush Risk Using the Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey Relational Analysis in the Liangzhuang Coal Mine, China

Beurteilung des Risikos von Wassereinbrüchen in der Liangzhuang Coal Mine, China durch die Anwendung von „Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process“ - und „Grey Relational Analysis“ - Methoden

Relevamiento del riesgo de irrupción de agua usando el proceso jerárquico analítico y de lógica difusa Delphi y análisis relacional de Grey en la mina de carbón Liangzhuang, China

利用模糊德尔菲层次分析法和灰色关联分析法的良庄煤矿(中国)突水危险性评价

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Abstract

The exploitation of deep coal seams in North China’s coalfields is seriously threatened by water inrush. Water inrush is controlled by multiple factors and its processes are often not amenable to mathematical expression. To predict and prevent water inrush from the underlying Ordovician aquifer during mining of the No. 13 coal seam in the Liangzhuang coal mine, we used an innovative combination of methods to assess the risk of water inrush based on the fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy process (FDAHP) and grey relational analysis (GRA). Expert opinions and GRA were applied to obtain the relative importance of each of the major controlling factors, and the total weights of all factors were assigned using FDAHP. This allowed us to develop a risk index map in which the study area was divided into two zones and four subzones based on the risk index.

Zusammenfassung

Der Abbau von tief liegenden Kohleflözen in nordchinesischen Kohlelagerstätten wird durch Wassereinbrüche ernsthaft bedroht. Diese Wassereinbrüche haben ihre Ursachen in einer Vielzahl von Faktoren und sind sehr häufig nicht durch mathematische Berechnungen fassbar. Um Liegendzutritte aus dem unterlagernden ordovizischen Aquifer während des Abbaus des Kohleflözes Nr. 13 im Liangzhaung Kohlebergbau vorherzusagen bzw. zu verhindern, werden innovative Methoden auf der Grundlage des „Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process“ (FDAHP) und der „Grey Relational Analyse“ (GRA) kombiniert. Expertenwissen und die GRA werden bei der Zuweisung relativen Bedeutung jedes kontrollierenden Faktors einbezogen und unter Verwendung der FDAHP gewichtet. Dieses methodische Vorgehen wird genutzt, um eine Risikoindexkarte zu erstellen, in der das Untersuchungsgebiet in zwei Risiko- und vier Subzonen unterteilt wird.

Resumen

La explotación de vetas profundas de carbón en el los campos de carbón del norte de China está seriamente amenazado por la irrupción de agua. La irrupción de agua es controlada por múltiples factores y sus procesos frecuentemente no son ajustables a una expresión matemática. Para predecir y prevenir la irrupción de agua desde el acuífero subyacente Ordovician durante los procesos mineros en la veta de carbón No. 13 en la mina de carbón Liangzhaung, hemos usado una combinación innovadora de métodos para evaluar el riesgo de irrupción de agua basado en el proceso jerárquico analítico y de lógica difusa Delphi (FDAHP) y el análisis relacional de Grey (GRA). Opiniones expertas y GRA fueron aplicadas para obtener la importancia relativa de cada uno de los mayores factores controlantes y el peso total de todos los factores fueron asignados mediante FDAHP. Esto permitió desarrollar un mapa de índices de riesgo en el cual el área bajo estudio fue dividida en dos zonas y cuatro subzonas. 

摘要

华北型煤田煤层深部开采受底板突水威胁严重。突水机理受多种因素控制且难以用数学模型表达。采用模糊德尔菲层次分析法(FDAHP)与灰色关联分析法(GRA)相结合的方法预测了良庄井田13煤层底板奥灰突水危险性。利用专家意见和灰色关联分析法评价了底板突水主控因素的相对重要性,通过模糊德尔菲层次分析法确定各主控因素权重。建立了研究区突水危险性指数分区,将研究区划分为2个突水危险性分区和4个突水危险性亚区。

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the editors and two anonymous reviewers for their careful work and thoughtful suggestions. The authors also thank Dr. Mona Pelkey for her help with this manuscript. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41572244), the Ministry of Education Research Fund for the doctoral program (20133718110004), the SDUST Research Fund (2012KYTD101), the Taishan Scholars Construction Projects, and the SDUST Graduate Innovation Fund (YC150104).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Earth Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China

    Mei Qiu, Longqing Shi & Chao Teng

  2. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Depositional Mineralization and Sedimentary Minerals, Qingdao, 266590, China

    Mei Qiu & Longqing Shi

  3. College of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China

    Yan Zhou

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  1. Mei Qiu
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  2. Longqing Shi
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  4. Yan Zhou
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Correspondence to Longqing Shi.

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Qiu, M., Shi, L., Teng, C. et al. Assessment of Water Inrush Risk Using the Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey Relational Analysis in the Liangzhuang Coal Mine, China. Mine Water Environ 36, 39–50 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-016-0391-7

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