Abstract
This paper reveals a change in the relationship between the Yangtze River valley (YRV) summer rainfall (YRVSR) and the spring Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) during the period of 1958–2012. It is found that the positive correlation between the YRVSR and the previous May SAM is insignificant during the period of 1958–1987 (P1), while it becomes significant during the period of 1988–2012 (P2). Such interdecadal change is relevant to the interdecadal change of the relationship between the May SAM and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). During P2, the strong exchange of the air-sea heat flux related to the May SAM can excite a prominent meridional Indian Ocean tri-pole (IOT) SSTA pattern, whereas during P1, the May SAM associated air-sea heat exchange is weak and the IOT SSTA is not evident. Further observational and simulated evidences show that the May SAM associated IOT SSTA can persist through the following boreal summer and modulate the rainfall anomalies over the Maritime Continent (MC) by changing the zonal circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean-MC region. Subsequently, wave energies generated by the latent heat release of the MC rainfall (MCR) anomalies can propagate northward to the YRV along the great circle route. Responding to the positive (or negative) MCR heating forcing, anticyclonic (or cyclonic) circulation anomalies are excited over the western North Pacific, transporting more (or less) moisture to the YRV. Correspondingly, abnormal ascending (or sinking) motions are induced over the YRV, favoring sufficient (or insufficient) YRVSR. Thus, the IOT SSTA and MCR act as the “ocean” and “atmosphere” bridge role in connecting the May SAM and the YRVSR, respectively. Those models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which well capture the May SAM-YRVSR relation can reproduce the IOT SSTA pattern and MCR anomalies associated with the May SAM. This further affirms that both the IOT SSTA and MCR are responsible for the strengthened relationship between the SAM and the YRVSR.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A et al (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4(6):1147–1167
Baldwin MP (2001) Annular modes in global daily surface pressure. Geophys Res Lett 28:4115–4118. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013564
Böning CW, Dispert A, Visbeck M et al (2008) The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change. Nat Geosci 1:864–869
Cong J, Lu CH, Guan ZY (2011) Relationships among IHO, AO and AAO. Trans Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 34(6):748–755
Deser C, Timlin MS (1997) Atmosphere ocean interaction on weekly timescales in the North Atlantic and Pacific. J Clim 10:393–408
Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
Ding R, Li J, Tseng Y et al (2015) The Victoria mode in the North Pacific linking extratropical sea level pressure variations to ENSO: link between the victoria mode and ENSO. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:27–45. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022221
Dou J, Wu Z (2018) Southern Hemisphere origins for interannual variations of snow cover over the Western Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer. J Clim 31:7701–7718. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0327.1
Dou J, Wu Z, Zhou Y (2017) Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 49:1257–1269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3380-4
Fan K (2006) Atmospheric circulation in Southern Hemisphere and summer rainfall over Yangtze River valley. Chin J Geophys 49(3):672–679
Feng J, Li J, Li Y (2010) Is there a relationship between the SAM and Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall? J Clim 23:6082–6089. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3667.1
Fletcher CG, Kushner PJ (2011) The role of linear interference in the annular mode response to tropical SST forcing. J Clim 24:778–794. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3735.1
Fogt RL, Jones JM, Renwick J (2012) Seasonal zonal asymmetries in the Southern Annular Mode and their impact on regional temperature anomalies. J Clim 25:6253–6270. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00474.1
Gao H, Xue F, Wang HJ (2003) Influence of interannual variability of Antarctic oscillation on mei-yu along the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley and its importance to prediction. Chin Sci Bull 48:61–67
Gong DY, Ho CH (2002) Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):1436. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014523
Gong DY, Ho CH (2003) Arctic oscillation signals in the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 108(D2):4066. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014523
Gong DY, Zhu J, Wang S (2002) Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Chin Sci Bull 47(11):948–952
Gu W, Li C, Li W et al (2009) Interdecadal unstationary relationship between NAO and east China’s summer precipitation patterns. Geophys Res Lett 36:L13702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038843
Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Interhemispheric oscillation in the surface air pressure field. Geophys Res Lett 28:263–266
Guan Z, Lu C, Mei S, Cong J (2010) Seasonality of interannual inter-hemispheric oscillations over the past five decades. Adv Atmos Sci 27:1043–1050
Hall A, Visbeck M (2002) Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode. J Clim 15:3043–3057. https://doi.org/10.1175/15200493(1982)110%3c1375:SVOSLP%3e2.0.CO;2
Hendon HH, Thompson DWJ, Wheeler MC (2007) Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. J Clim 20:2452–2467. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4134.1
Hendon HH, Lim E-P, Nguyen H (2014) Seasonal variations of subtropical precipitation associated with the southern annular mode. J Clim 27:3446–3460. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00550.1
Hu Z-Z (1997) Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res: Atmos 102:19403–19412. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01052
Huang B, Banzon VF, Freeman E et al (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
Jiang TZ, Kundzewicz W, Su BD (2008) Changes in monthly precipitation and flood hazard in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Int J Climatol 28:1471–1481. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1635
Karori MA, Li J, Jin FF (2013) The asymmetric influence of the two types of El Niño and La Niña on summer rainfall over Southeast China. J Clim 26(13):4567–4582
Kidson JW (1999) Principal modes of southern hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. J Clim 12:2808–2830. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3c2808:PMOSHL%3e2.0.CO;2
Kiladis GN, Mo KC (1998) Interannual and intraseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere. In: Karoly DJ, Vincent DG (eds) Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere. Am Meteorol Soc, Boston, pp 307–336
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y et al (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Japan Ser II 93(1):5–48
Kuang XY, Zhang YC (2006) Impact of the position abnormalities of East Asian subtropical westerly jet on summer precipitation in middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River. Plateau Meteorol 25(3):382–389
Kwok R, Comiso JC (2002) Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002gl015415
L’Heureux ML, Thompson DWJ (2006) Observed relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J Clim 19:276–287. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3617.1
Lefebvre W, Goosse H, Timmermann R, Fichefet T (2004) Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice–ocean system. J Geophys Res Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002403
Li YJ, Li J, Jin FF, Zhao S (2015) Interhemispheric propagation of stationary Rossby waves in a horizontally nonuniform background flow. J Atmos Sci 72:3233–3256
Liu MZ, Ren L, Zhang MX (2005) Research on manufacturing quality data management methods of quality statistical process control. Comput Integr Manuf 11(2):280–283
Liu T, Li J, Zheng F (2015) Influence of the boreal autumn southern annular mode on winter precipitation over land in the Northern Hemisphere. J Clim 28:8825–8839. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00704.1
Liu T, Li J, Li Y et al (2018) Influence of the May southern annular mode on the South China Sea summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 51:4095–4107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3753-3
Lovenduski Nicole S, Nicolas Gruber (2005) Impact of the Southern Annular Mode on Southern Ocean circulation and biology. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022727
Lu CH, Guan ZY, Cai JX (2010) Interhemispheric atmospheric mass oscillation and its relation to interannual variations of the Asian monsoon in boreal summer. Sci China Earth Sci 53(9):1343–1350
Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J Clim 16:4134–4143. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3c4134:TITSAM%3e2.0.CO;2
Marshall GJ, Bracegirdle TJ (2015) An examination of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic surface air temperatures in the CMIP5 historical runs. Clim Dyn 45:1513–1535. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2406-z
Miller RL, Schmidt GA, Shindell DT (2006) Forced annular variations in the 20th century intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment report models. J Geophys Res 111(D18):D18101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006323
Nan S, Li J (2003) The relationship between the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and the boreal spring southern hemisphere annular mode: relation between precipitation and SAM. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018381
Nan S, Li J, Yuan X, Zhao P (2009) Boreal spring southern hemisphere annular mode, Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, and East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010045
Prabhu A, Kripalani R, Preethi B, Pandithurai G (2016) Potential role of the February-March Southern Annular Mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a new perspective. Clim Dyn 47:1161–1179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2894-5
Purich A, Cowan T, Min S-K, Cai W (2013) Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models. J Clim 26:8341–8356. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1
Rogers JC, van Loon H (1982) Spatial variability of sea level pressure and 500 mb height anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere. Mon Wea Rev 110:1375–1392. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110%3c1375:SVOSLP%3e2.0.CO;2
Sallée JB, Speer KG, Rintoul SR (2010) Zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth to the Southern Annular Mode. Nat Geosci 3:273–279. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo812
Sen Gupta A, England MH (2007) Coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback in the southern annular mode. J Clim 20:3677–3692. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4200.1
Sen Gupta A, England MH (2006) Coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice response to variations in the southern annular mode. J Clim 19:4457–4486. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3843.1
Si D, Ding Y (2013) Decadal change in the correlation pattern between the Tibetan Plateau winter snow and the East Asian summer precipitation during 1979–2011. J Clim 26(19):7622–7634
Si D, Hu ZZ, Kumar A et al (2016) Is the interdecadal variation of the summer rainfall over eastern China associated with SST? Clim Dyn 46(1–2):135–146
Smith SD (1988) Coefficients for sea surface wind stress, heat flux, and wind profiles as a function of wind speed and temperature. J Geophys Res Oceans 93(C12):15467–15472
Sun J (2010) Possible impact of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation on the North American summer monsoon. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 3(4):232–236
Sun J, Wang H, Yuan W (2009) A possible mechanism for the co-variability of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation and the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. Int J Climatol 29:1276–1284. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1773
Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q et al (2014a) Would the ‘real’ observed dataset stand up? A critical examination of eight observed gridded climate datasets for China. Environ Res Lett 9(1):015001
Sun Y, Zhang X, Zwiers FW et al (2014b) Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China. Nat Clim Change 4:1082–1085. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2410
Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res: Atmos 106:7183–7192. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. B Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Thomas RA, Webster PJ (1994) Horizontal and vertical structure of cross-equatorial wave propagation. J Atmos Sci 51:1417–1430
Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J Clim 13:1000–1016
Trenberth (1997) The definition of El Niño. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78:2771–2777
Verdy A, Marshall J, Czaja A (2006) Sea surface temperature variability along the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. J Phys Oceanogr 36:1317–1331
Wang HJ (2001) The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Adv Atmos Sci 18:376–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02919316
Wang HJ, Fan K (2005) Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: signal of the Antarctic atmospheric oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L24705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024562
Wang HJ, Sun JQ, Chen HP, Zhu YL, Zhang Y, Jiang DB, Lang XM, Fan K et al (2012) Extreme climate in China: facts, simulation and projection. Meteorol Z 21(3):279–304. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330
Weng H, Lau KM, Xue Y (1999) Multi-scale summer rainfall variability over China and its long-term link to global sea surface temperature variability. J Meteorol Soc Japan Ser II 77(4):845–857
Wu Z, Li J, He J et al (2006) Occurrence of droughts and floods during the normal summer monsoons in the mid-and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Geophys Res Lett 33(5):L05813. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024487
Wu B, Zhang R, Wang B et al (2009a) On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 36(9):L09501. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037299
Wu B, Zhang R, Wang B (2009b) On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall: a further study. Adv Atmos Sci 26(4):666–678
Wu Z, Li J, Wang B, Liu X (2009c) Can the Southern Hemisphere annular mode affect China winter monsoon? J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011501
Wu Z, Wang B, Li J, Jin FF (2009d) An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd011733
Wu Z, Dou J, Lin H (2015) Potential influence of the November–December Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the East Asian winter precipitation: a new mechanism. Clim Dyn 44:1215–1226. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2241-2
Xiao M, Zhang Q, Singh VP (2015) Influences of ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River basin, China: influences of ENSO regnimes on precipitation. Int J Climatol 35:3556–3567. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4228
Xuan S, Zhang Q, Sun S (2011) Anomalous midsummer rainfall in Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys and its association with the East Asia westerly jet. Adv Atmos Sci 28:387–397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-0111-3
Xue F, Wang HJ, He JH (2004) Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82(4):1173–1186
Yang F, Lau K-M (2004) Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer: linkage to sea-surface temperatures. Int J Climatol 24:1625–1644. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1094
Yeo S-R, Kim K-Y (2015) Decadal changes in the Southern Hemisphere sea surface temperature in association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode. Clim Dyn 45:3227–3242. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2535-z
Yuan W, Cai W, Chen Y et al (2016) Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep18813
Yue X, Wang H (2008) The springtime North Asia cyclone activity index and the southern annular mode. Adv Atmos Sci 25:673–679. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-008-0673-5
Zhang Q, Wu G (2001) The large area flood and drought over Yangtze River valley and its relation to the South Asia High. Acta Meteor Sin 59:569–577 (in Chinese)
Zhang Q, Xu C, Jiang T et al (2007) Possible influence of ENSO on annual maximum streamflow of the Yangtze River, China. J Hydrol 333(2–4):265–274
Zhang W, Jin F-F, Stuecker MF et al (2016) Unraveling El Niño’s impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding: El Niño’s Impact on the Asian Monsoon. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071190
Zhang R, Min Q, Su J (2017) Impact of El Niño on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China: Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone. Sci China Earth Sci 60:1124–1132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9026-x
Zheng F, Li J, Wang L et al (2015) Cross-seasonal influence of the December–February Southern Hemisphere annular mode on March–May meridional circulation and precipitation. J Clim 28:6859–6881. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00515.1
Zheng F, Li J, Ding R (2017) Influence of the preceding austral summer Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the amplitude of ENSO decay. Adv Atmos Sci 34(11):1358–1379
Acknowledgements
We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91937302, 41790475 and 91637312) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0601801).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dou, J., Wu, Z. & Li, J. The strengthened relationship between the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode in recent decades. Clim Dyn 54, 1607–1624 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05078-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05078-4