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WRF downscaling improves ERA-Interim representation of precipitation around a tropical Andean valley during El Niño: implications for GCM-scale simulation of precipitation over complex terrain

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Abstract

Precipitation in the tropical Andes is strongly influenced by the ENSO phases and orographic effects. In particular, precipitation can be drastically reduced during El Niño. Decision-making about water resources relies on modelling precipitation as the main source for water availability. Here we evaluate ERA-Interim´s capacity to represent precipitation in the mountainous central Colombian Andes, a strategic region for water supply and hydropower generation, for different phases of ENSO during 1998–2012. Our results show that ERA-Interim fails to reproduce important features of precipitation spatial and temporal variability during different ENSO phases. Most critical in these results is how ERA-Interim overestimates precipitation during the dry season in El Niño years, which corresponds to the most critical condition for water supply. We show that ERA-Interim limitations are likely related to its simplified representation of the complex topography in the region, which excludes the inter-Andean Cauca river valley. To improve this, we implement a dynamical downscaling experiment using the WRF regional climate model, including a sensitivity analysis that considers three convective parameterization schemes and a convection-permitting simulation. WRF downscaling outperforms ERA-Interim in the representation of precipitation during the dry season of El Niño years, especially through correcting positive precipitation biases. This improvement is related to a better representation of orographic effects in WRF simulations. Our results suggest that ERA-Interim and, more generally, climate simulations with comparable coarse resolutions, may produce misleading precipitation overestimations in the tropical Andes if they do not adequately represent inter-Andean valleys, with important implications for water resources management.

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Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by “Programa de investigación en la gestión de riesgo asociado con cambio climático y ambiental en cuencas hidrográficas” (UT-GRA), Convocatoria 543–2011 Colciencias. JFS was partially supported by the IAI-INPE Internship program: “Understanding Climate Change and Variability in the Americas”. JFM was partially supported by the Desert Research Institute/Division of Atmospheric Sciences and COLCIENCIAS (award No FP44842-856-2014).

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  1. Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 # 53-108, Medellín, Colombia

    José A. Posada-Marín, Angela M. Rendón, Juan F. Salazar & Juan Camilo Villegas

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA

    John F. Mejía

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  1. José A. Posada-Marín
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Correspondence to José A. Posada-Marín.

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Posada-Marín, J.A., Rendón, A.M., Salazar, J.F. et al. WRF downscaling improves ERA-Interim representation of precipitation around a tropical Andean valley during El Niño: implications for GCM-scale simulation of precipitation over complex terrain. Clim Dyn 52, 3609–3629 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4403-0

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