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Evaluation of observed and simulated teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic region on the basis of partial least squares regression

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Abstract

An interesting topic in climate research is to determine the variability of teleconnection patterns under warming conditions. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic-West Russian and the Scandinavian (SCAND) patterns are the most important teleconnection patterns affecting Europe. Results associated with traditional methodologies for capturing these patterns, such as conventional and rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, are difficult to intercompare when using different datasets. Therefore, we employed the method of partial least squares (PLS) regression to find a plausible representation of the teleconnections using the standard set of teleconnection patterns defined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center as a reference. The variability and trend of the teleconnection indices and patterns over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries were investigated for 20C3M and SRES A1B experiments from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and compared with the twentieth-century reanalysis data. The results of this study show a positive trend for the NAO and a negative trend for the SCAND under a future climate scenario. With this study, we were able to extract consistent teleconnection patterns across different models, demonstrating the usefulness of the PLS regression in evaluating models and establishing the basis for future work using the fifth phase of CMIP data to assess atmospheric circulation trends and causes of regional climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers of this paper for their numerous and useful comments on the original manuscript. We are very grateful to Dr. Timothy Osborn, from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, for his helpful and productive conversations about some aspects of the paper. We would like to acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their role in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support for this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U. S. Department of Energy. We would like to thank the NCEP/NCAR for providing the reanalysis, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA for the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Indices and the developers of CDAT software. We also thank Guillaume Maze (http://www.guillaumemaze.org) for providing a MATLAB script for plotting good Taylor diagrams. We also thank Javier Vegas-Regidor for his support with programming. This work is supported under grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation CGL2008-04619 and CGL2011-23209, from the Regional Government of Castile and Leon SA222/A11-2 with European FEDER funds and from the Spanish Ministry of Environment MOVAC ref.200800050084028.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Physics, University of Salamanca, Plaza de la Merced s/n, 37008, Salamanca, Spain

    N. Gonzalez-Reviriego & C. Rodriguez-Puebla

  2. Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    B. Rodriguez-Fonseca

  3. Geosciences Institute (UCM-CSIC), Plaza de Ciencias 1, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    B. Rodriguez-Fonseca

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  1. N. Gonzalez-Reviriego
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Correspondence to N. Gonzalez-Reviriego.

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Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Rodriguez-Puebla, C. & Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. Evaluation of observed and simulated teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic region on the basis of partial least squares regression. Clim Dyn 44, 2989–3014 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2367-2

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