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A two-stage explainable artificial intelligence approach for classification-based job cycle time prediction

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Abstract

Recently, many methods based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) or deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed to accurately predict the cycle time of a job. However, the prediction mechanism of an ANN is difficult to understand and communicate for users, which limits its acceptability (or usefulness). To solve this problem, a two-stage explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach is proposed in this study to better explain a classification-based cycle time prediction method. In the proposed methodology, first, jobs are divided into several clusters. A scatter radar diagram is then designed to illustrate the classification result. Compared with existing XAI techniques, the scatter radar diagram meets more requirements for better interpretation. Subsequently, an ANN is constructed for each cluster to predict the cycle times of jobs in the cluster. A random forest is then constructed to approximate the prediction mechanism of the ANN. In existing practice, the random forest generates many decision rules to predict the cycle time of a job, which may cause confusion for the user. To solve this problem, a systematic procedure is established to re-organize these decision rules. In this way, the first few decision rules can provide most of the information, and the user does not have to read all the rules. The two-stage XAI approach has been applied to a real case from the literature to evaluate its effectiveness.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu City, Taiwan

    Toly Chen

  2. Department of Aeronautical Engineering, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung City, Taiwan

    Yu-Cheng Wang

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  1. Toly Chen
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  2. Yu-Cheng Wang
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Both authors contributed equally to the writing of this paper. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript. Data curation, methodology, and writing original draft: Toly Chen and Yu–Cheng Wang; writing–review and editing: Toly Chen and Yu-Cheng Wang.

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Correspondence to Yu-Cheng Wang.

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Chen, T., Wang, YC. A two-stage explainable artificial intelligence approach for classification-based job cycle time prediction. Int J Adv Manuf Technol 123, 2031–2042 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-022-10330-z

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