Interleaving at the Equator

Abstract

The robustness of climate predictions depends on the effectiveness of atmosphere and ocean models to capture the essential physics of the problem. Recent studies have shown that for the ENSO phenomenom the predictability of coupled models is very dependent on the initial state of the ocean model (e.g. Latif and Graham, [15]). What dictates the state of the ocean, its density and current structure, is still a matter for debate. Neelin et al. [20] suggest that the lack of ability of coupled models to reproduce major features of the tropical climatology may be attributable to a sensitivity of models to parameters used in subgrid scale processes. McPhaden [19] notes the importance of improving model physics, through parameterizing small scale mixing processes, to accurately model the equatorial ocean and predict El Niño.