Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xiv
  2. Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Warren E. Walker, Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen, Steven W. Popper
    Pages 1-20 Open Access
  3. DMDU Approaches

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 21-21
    2. R. J. Lempert
      Pages 23-51 Open Access
    3. Warren E. Walker, Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Jan H. Kwakkel
      Pages 53-69 Open Access
    4. Marjolijn Haasnoot, Andrew Warren, Jan H. Kwakkel
      Pages 71-92 Open Access
    5. Yakov Ben-Haim
      Pages 93-115 Open Access
    6. Richard de Neufville, Kim Smet
      Pages 117-132 Open Access
  4. DMDU Applications

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 133-133
    2. David G. Groves, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Evan Bloom, Jordan R. Fischbach
      Pages 135-163 Open Access
    3. Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Warren E. Walker, Jan-Willem G. M. van der Pas
      Pages 165-186 Open Access
    4. Judy Lawrence, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura McKim, Dayasiri Atapattu, Graeme Campbell, Adolf Stroombergen
      Pages 187-199 Open Access
    5. François M. Hemez, Kendra L. Van Buren
      Pages 201-222 Open Access
    6. Richard de Neufville, Kim Smet, Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Mehdi Ranjbar-Bourani
      Pages 223-252 Open Access
  5. DMDU-Implementation Processes

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 253-253
    2. Casey Brown, Scott Steinschneider, Patrick Ray, Sungwook Wi, Leon Basdekas, David Yates
      Pages 255-287 Open Access
    3. Jesse Sowell
      Pages 289-320 Open Access
    4. Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen, Floris Hammer, Maarten J. van der Vlist, Pieter Grinwis, Jos van Alphen
      Pages 321-351 Open Access
  6. DMDU-Synthesis

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 353-353
    2. Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot
      Pages 355-374 Open Access
    3. Steven W. Popper
      Pages 375-392 Open Access
    4. Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Warren E. Walker, Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen, Steven W. Popper
      Pages 393-400 Open Access
  7. Judy Lawrence, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura McKim, Dayasiri Atapattu, Graeme Campbell, Adolf Stroombergen
    Pages C1-C1 Open Access
  8. Back Matter
    Pages 401-405

About this book


This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. 

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.

The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.


Decision Making Deep Uncertainty Robust Decision Making Dynamic Adaptive Planning Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Decision Tree Framework Planned Adaption Open Access

Editors and affiliations

  • Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
    • 1
  • Warren E. Walker
    • 2
  • Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen
    • 3
  • Steven W. Popper
    • 4
  1. 1.Nijmegen School of ManagementRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Faculty of Technology, Policy and ManagementDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Staff Delta Programme CommissionerMinistry of Infrastructure and Water ManagementThe HagueThe Netherlands
  4. 4.Pardee RAND Graduate SchoolRAND CorporationSanta MonicaUSA

Bibliographic information