Abstract
This study investigates the effect of climate change on crop production in Turkey using time series data from 1980 to 2019. Our model covers both climatic and non-climatic factors, including average precipitation, average temperature, cultivation area, fertilizer use, and gas-diesel consumption. After checking the results of our preliminary tests, we used the Toda–Yamamoto causality test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to analyze causality and long-run relationships among variables. The outcomes of the ARDL bounds test confirm the cointegration between crop production with climatic and non-climatic factors. The long-run estimation results demonstrate that a 1% increase in precipitation, cropland, fertilizer consumption per cropland, and agricultural gas-diesel oil use per cropland increases production by 0.59%, 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.07%, respectively. Furthermore, a 1% temperature increase reduces production by 0.19% in the long run. Through causality analysis, we found multiple unidirectional causal relationships between variables. While average temperature is the Granger cause of cropland and gas-diesel use, cropland is the Granger cause of crop production. Given these concerning results regarding the detrimental impact of climate change on crop production, it is evident that governments should prioritize their efforts to tackle the causes of climate change. Furthermore, implementing adaptation strategies such as promoting drought-resistant cultivars and adopting efficient irrigation techniques is crucial.
Highlights
-
Average precipitation is the variable with the highest impact on crop production. A 1% increase in precipitation boosts crop production by 0.59% in the long run.
-
Temperature increases lead to a decrease in crop production in the long run.
-
Gas-Diesel oil usage per cropland has a positive effect on production, albeit with a relatively weak effect, particularly in the long run.
-
In the long run, cropland is the most influential variable in the non-climatic factors. In addition, cropland is the only granger cause of crop production among the studied variables.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
Data are available on request.
Notes
Here, stationarity refers to weak or covariance stationarity, which indicates that the mean and variance of the time series are constant over time, and the covariance with its lags is independent of time and depends only on the lag length (Mert and Çağlar 2019).
References
Abbas S (2020) Climate change and cotton production: an empirical investigation of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:29580–29588. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0
Abbas S (2022) Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:5406–5414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16041-4
Agbenyo W, Jiang Y, Ding Z, Titriku JK, Ntim-Amo G (2022) Impact of climate change on cocoa production in Africa: an approach of cross-sectional ARDL. Int J Environ Res 16(5):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-022-00471-0
Ahmed M, Shuai J, Ali H (2023) The effects of climate change on food production in India: evidence from the ARDL model. Environ Dev Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03209-w
Akcakaya A, Sumer UM, Demircan M, Demir O, Atay H, Eskioglu O, Gurkan H, Yazici B, Kocaturk A, Sensoy S, Boluk E, Arabaci H, Acar Y, Ekici M, Yagan S, Cukurcayir F (2015) Climate projections for Turkey with new scenarios and climate change TR2015-CC. Turkish State Meteorological Service. p 149 (in Turkish)
Akcan AT, Kurt Ü, Kılıç C (2022) Effects of climate change on agricultural sector in Turkey: ARDL bounds test approach. J Econ Adm Sci 36(1):125–132. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/atauniiibd/issue/68337/992490 (in Turkish). Accessed 14 Apr 2023
Amiri A, Ventelou B (2012) Granger causality between total expenditure on health and GDP in OECD: evidence from the Toda-Yamamoto approach. Econ Lett 116:541–544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.040
Anh DLT, Anh NT, Chandio AA (2022) Climate change and its impacts on Vietnam agriculture: a macroeconomic perspective. Eco Inform 74:101960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101960
Asfew M, Bedemo A (2022) Impact of climate change on cereal crops production in Ethiopia. Adv Agric 2022:2208694. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2208694
Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P et al (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Change 5:143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470
Attiaoui I, Boufateh T (2019) Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL–PMG approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:13334–13345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04867-y
Baig IA, Irfan M, Aarif M, Husain S, Sulaiman M (2023) How agricultural technologies and climatic factors affect India’s crop production? A roadmap towards sustainable agriculture. Sustain Dev. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2558
Beguería S (2011) Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth-Sci Rev 105:121–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006
Ben Zaied Y, Ben Cheikh N (2015) Long-run versus short-run analysis of climate change impacts on agricultural crops. Environ Model Assess 20:259–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-014-9432-4
CCKP (2023) World Bank Group, Climate change knowledge portal. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/. Accessed 2 Jan 2023
Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A, Rauf A (2020a) Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. Int J Clim Change Strateg Manag 12:201–221. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026
Chandio AA, Ozturk I, Akram W, Ahmad F, Mirani AA (2020b) Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:11944–11957. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y
Chandio AA, Gokmenoglu KK, Ahmad F (2021) Addressing the long-and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:51657–51673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14358-8
Chandio AA, Akram W, Sargani GR, Twumasi MA, Ahmad F (2022a) Assessing the impacts of meteorological factors on soybean production in China: what role can agricultural subsidy play? Ecol Inform 71:101778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101778
Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Fatima T, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Li J (2022b) Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach. Int J Clim Change Strateg Manag 14:125–147. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2020-0111
Chavas JP, Di Falco S, Adinolfi F, Capitanio F (2019) Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy. Eur Rev Agric Econ 46:29–51. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jby019
Chowdhury MA, Zzaman RU, Tarin NJ, Hossain MJ (2022) Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 110:2329–2351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05039-3
Dellal İ, McCarl BA, Butt T (2011) The economic assessment of climate change on Turkish agriculture. J Environ Prot Ecol 12:376–385
Devkota N, Paija N (2020) Impact of climate change on paddy production: evidence from Nepal. Asian J Agric Dev 17:63–78. https://doi.org/10.37801/ajad2020.17.2.4
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: J Econom Soc 49:1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Do VQ, Phung ML, Truong DT, Pham TTT, Dang VT, Nguyen TK (2021) The impact of extreme events and climate change on agricultural and fishery enterprises in Central Vietnam. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137121
Dumrul Y, Kilicaslan Z (2017) Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. J Bus Econ Finance 6:336–347. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.766
Erbaykal E, Okuyan HA (2008) Does inflation depress economic growth? Evidence from Turkey. Int J Finance Econ 13(17):40–48
FAOSTAT (2023) Food and agricultural organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. Accessed 2 Jan 2023
Gao X, Giorgi F (2008) Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Global Planet Change 62:195–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.02.002
Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global Planet Change 63:90–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
Gourdji SM, Sibley AM, Lobell DB (2013) Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environ Res Lett 8:024041. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041
Granger CW (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: J Econom Soc 37:424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Guiot J, Cramer W (2016) Climate change: the 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah5015
Gul A, Chandio AA, Siyal SA, Rehman A, Xiumin W (2022) How climate change is impacting the major yield crops of Pakistan? An exploration from long-and short-run estimation. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:26660–26674. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17579-z
Hallegatte S (2016) Natural disasters and climate change. Springer, Cham
IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5 °C.An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pörtner H-O et al (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, p 616 https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940
Jones MW, Smith A, Betts R, Canadell JG, Prentice IC, Le Quéré C (2020) Climate change increases the risk of wildfires. ScienceBrief Rev. https://sciencebrief.org/briefs/wildfires. Accessed 14 Apr 2023
Ketema AM, Negeso KD (2020) Effect of climate change on agricultural output in Ethiopia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah 8:195–208. https://doi.org/10.26458/jedep.v9i3.665
Khan MTI, Ali Q, Ashfaq M (2018) The nexus between greenhouse gas emission, electricity production, renewable energy and agriculture in Pakistan. Renew Energy 118:437–451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.11.043
Knutson TR, Chung MV, Vecchi G, Sun J, Hsieh TL, Smith AJ (2021) ScienceBrief Review: climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones. In: Le Quéré C, Liss P, Forster P (eds) Critical issues in climate change science. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4570334
Koondhar MA, Aziz N, Tan Z, Yang S, Abbasi KR, Kong R (2021) Green growth of cereal food production under the constraints of agricultural carbon emissions: a new insights from ARDL and VECM models. Sustain Energy Technol Assess 47:101452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101452
Kumar P, Sahu NC, Kumar S, Ansari MA (2021) Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:51597–51611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9
Lionello P, Scarascia L (2018) The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Reg Environ Change 18:1481–1493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1
Magazzino C, Bekun FV, Etokakpan MU, Uzuner G (2020) Modeling the dynamic Nexus among coal consumption, pollutant emissions and real income: empirical evidence from South Africa. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:8772–8782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07345-7
Mariotti A, Pan Y, Zeng N, Alessandri A (2015) Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability. Clim Dyn 44:1437–1456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3
MedECC (2020) Climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean basin – current situation and risks for the future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Marini, K. (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, p 632
Mehana M, Abdelrahman M, Emadeldin Y, Rohila JS, Karthikeyan R (2021) Impact of genetic improvements of rice on its water use and effects of climate variability in Egypt. Agriculture. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11090865
Mert M, Çağlar AE (2019) Applied time series analysis using Eviews and Gauss. Detay Publishing, Ankara
Narayan PK (2004) Fiji’s tourism demand: the ARDL approach to cointegration. Tour Econ 10:193–206. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000004323142425
Narayan PK (2005) The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Appl Econ 37:1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Nasrullah M, Rizwanullah M, Yu X, Jo H, Sohail MT, Liang L (2021) Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to study the impact of climate change and other factors on rice production in South Korea. J Water Climate Change 12:2256–2270. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.030
Özdoğan M (2011) Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Northwestern Turkey. Agr Ecosyst Environ 141:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.02.001
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Economet 16:289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips PC, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75:335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Pickson RB, He G, Boateng E (2022) Impacts of climate change on rice production: evidence from 30 Chinese provinces. Environ Dev Sustain 24:3907–3925. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01594-8
Qiao L, Wang X, Smith P, Fan J, Lu Y, Emmett B, Fan M (2022) Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change. Nat Clim Change 12:574–580. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01376-8
Ray DK, West PC, Clark M, Gerber JS, Prishchepov AV, Chatterjee S (2019) Climate change has likely already affected global food production. PLoS ONE 14:e0217148. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
Saadi S, Todorovic M, Tanasijevic L, Pereira LS, Pizzigalli C, Lionello P (2015) Climate change and Mediterranean agriculture: impacts on winter wheat and tomato crop evapotranspiration, irrigation requirements and yield. Agric Water Manag 147:103–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.008
Şen ÖL (2013) A holistic view of climate change and its impacts in Turkey. Report. Istanbul Policy Centre, Sabanci University, Istanbul
Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ (2010) Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci Rev. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
Sharma RK, Dhillon J, Kumar P, Bheemanahalli R, Li X, Cox MS, Reddy KN (2023) Climate trends and maize production nexus in Mississippi: empirical evidence from ARDL modelling. Sci Rep 13:16641. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43528-6
Soytas U, Sari R (2009) Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: challenges faced by an EU candidate member. Ecol Econ 68:1667–1675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.014
Tetteh B, Baidoo ST, Takyi PO (2022) The effects of climate change on food production in Ghana: evidence from Maki (2012) cointegration and frequency domain causality models. Cogent Food Agric 8:2111061. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2022.2111061
Toda HY, Yamamoto T (1995) Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. J Econom 66:225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
Turhan E, Cerit Mazlum S, Şahin Ü, Şorman AH, Gündoğan AC (2016) Beyond special circumstances: climate change policy in Turkey 1992–2015. Wiley Interdiscip Rev: Clim Change 7:448–460. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.390
Turkes M, Turp MT, An N, Ozturk T, Kurnaz ML (2020) Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey. Water resources of Turkey. Springer, Cham, pp 467–491
TURKSTAT (2023) Turkish statistical institute. https://www.tuik.gov.tr/. Accessed 8 Mar 2023
Van Huong N, Minh Nguyet BT, Van Hung H et al (2022) Economic impact of climate change on agriculture: a case of Vietnam. AgBioforum 24(1):1–12
Vanli Ö, Ustundag BB, Ahmad I, Hernandez-Ochoa IM, Hoogenboom G (2019) Using crop modeling to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wheat in southeastern turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:29397–29408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06061-6
Warsame AA, Sheik-Ali IA, Ali AO, Sarkodie SA (2021) Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:19838–19850. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11739-3
Warsame AA, Sheik-Ali IA, Barre GM, Ahmed A (2023) Examining the effects of climate change and political instability on maize production in Somalia. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:3293–3306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22227-1
Wiebe K, Lotze-Campen H, Sands R et al (2015) Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environ Res Lett 10:085010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010
World Bank (2023) World development indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed 2 Jan 2023
Xiang X, Solaymani S (2022) Change in cereal production caused by climate change in Malaysia. Eco Inform 70:101741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101741
Zhang H, Tang Y, Chandio AA, Sargani GR, Ankrah Twumasi M (2022) Measuring the effects of climate change on wheat production: evidence from Northern China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19:12341. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912341
Zhao C, Liu B, Piao S et al (2017) Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:9326–9331. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
Acknowledgements
We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the anonymous reviewers whose constructive comments and guidance significantly improved the early version of the paper.
Funding
No funds, grants, or other support was received.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethical Approval
Not applicable.
Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
Consent for Publication
Not applicable.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Çakan, V.A., Tipi, T. What are the Implications of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Crop Production? Evidence from Turkey. Int J Environ Res 18, 10 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-023-00560-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-023-00560-8