Abstract
Turkey is bounded by the two of the most active fault zones: the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). Therefore, Turkey has experienced several great earthquakes (M > 7.0) in these fault zones. These earthquakes caused huge devastation on buildings and roads as a result of landslides and liquefaction. Because of these huge effects, we aim to evaluate earthquake hazards by calculating the conditional probability of an earthquake with three probabilistic models (Weibull, gamma, and lognormal) in three selected regions along the NAFZ and EAFZ. For this purpose, the model parameters were calculated by using maximum likelihood estimates from the earthquake (Mw ≥ 5.5) recurrence times that occurred between 1900 and 2016 in the study regions. The fitting of model and data were tested with the log-likelihood value, Akaike information criterion, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov minimum distance criterion. The lognormal model is the best-fit model for three regions according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance criterion while the gamma is the best for region 3 according to the other two test criteria. The gamma model gives the highest probability value (> 0.80) for all regions, and lognormal results reach the values > 0.90 for region 1 (t = 0, τ = 11), for region 2 (t = 0, τ = 7), and for region 3 (t = 0, τ = 11). These results indicated that the short-time-period earthquake probabilities are high in the study regions. On the other hand, this study will be very useful for assessing the seismic risk and constituting the disaster mitigation plans of the study regions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aktug B, Dogru A, Ozener H, Peyret M (2015) Slip rates and locking depth variation along central and easternmost segments of North Anatolian Fault. Geophys J Int 202(3):2133–2149. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv274
Aktug B, Özener H, Dogru A, Sabuncu A, Turgut B, Halicioglu K, Yilmaz O, Havazli E (2016) Slip rates and seismic potential on the East Anatolian Fault System using an improved GPS velocity field. J Geodyn 94-95:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2016.01.001
Altinok Y, Kolcak D (1999) An application of the semi-Markov model for earthquake occurrences in North Anatolia, Turkey. J Balkan Geophys Soc 2(4):90–99
Anagnos T, Kiremidjian AS (1984) Stochastic time-predictable model for earthquake occurrences. Bull Seismol Soc Am 74(6):2593–2611
Barka AA (1992) The North Anatolian Fault zone. Ann Tecton 5(6):164–195
Bayrak E, Yilmaz Ş, Softa M, Turker T, Bayrak Y (2015) Earthquake hazard analysis for East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey. Nat Hazards 76:1063–1077. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1541-5
Bozkurt E (2001) Neotectonics of Turkey-a synthesis. Geodyn Acta 14:3–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2001.11432432
Caputo M (1974) Analysis of seismic risk. NATO Advanced Study Institutes Series Applied Sciences 3 Noordhoff Leiden
Civgin B, Kaypak B (2017) Estimation of the crustal structure in Central Anatolia (Turkey) using receiver functions. Turk J Earth Sci 26(4):314–330. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tbtkearth/issue/35160/390107. Accessed May 2019
Coban KH (2016) Investigation of seismicity for the North Anatolian Fault zone (Nafz) and it’s surrounding by using different statistical methods. MSc Dissertation, Karadeniz Technical University, Institute of Science, Trabzon
Coban KH, Sayil N (2018) Investigation of the seismicity of East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) according to Poisson and exponential distribution models. DÜBİTED 6(2):491–500
Cornell CA (1968) Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 58:1583–1606
Dewey JF, Hempton MR, Kidd WSF, Saroglu F, Sengor AMC (1986) Shortening of continental lithosphere: the neotectonics of Eastern Anatolia - a young collision zone. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 19:1–36. https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.1986.019.01.01
Fichtner A, Saygin E, Taymaz T, Cupillard P, Capdeville Y, Trampert J (2013) The deep structure of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Earth Planet Sci Lett 373:109–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.04.027
Forcellini DA (2018) A new methodology to assess indirect losses in bridges subjected to multiple hazards. Innov Infrastruct Solut 4(1):400–409. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2018-01159
Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367
Grivas AA, Dyvik R, Howland J (1980) An engineering analysis of the seismic history of New York State Proc. of the Seventh World Conf. on. Earthq Eng 1:324–331
Hagiwara Y (1975) A stochastic model of earthquake occurrence and the accompanying horizontal land deformation. Tectonophysics 26:91–101
Hajali M, Jalali A, Maleki A (2018) Effects of near fault and far fault ground motions on nonlinear dynamic response and seismic improvement of bridges. Civil. Eng J 4(6):1456–1466. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-0309186
Hosseini SM, Dirakvand F, Safarian O, Ayoubian A (2019) Risk assessment of crisis management in response to natural disasters with an emphasis on earthquakes. Civil. Eng J 5(3):712–717. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091281
Izgi G, Eken T, Gaebler P, Eulenfeld T, Taymaz T (2020) Crustal seismic attenuation parameters in the western region of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. J Geodyn 134:101694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2020.101694
Johnson NL, Kotz S, Balakrishnan N (1995) Continuous univariate distributions. vol 2, 2nd. Wiley, New York, p 756
Kadirioglu FT, Kartal RF (2016) The new empirical magnitude conversion relations using an improved earthquake catalogue for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012). Turk J Earth Sci 25:300–310
Karabulut H, Ozalaybey S, Taymaz T, Aktar M, Selvi O, Kocaoglu A (2003) A tomographic image of the shallow crustal structure in the Eastern Marmara. Geophys Res Lett 188(3):819–849. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05313.x
Kinscher J, Krüger F, Woith H, Lühr BG, Hintersberger E, Irmak TS, Baris S (2013) Seismotectonics of the Armutlu peninsula (Marmara Sea, NW Turkey) from geological field observation and regional moment tensor inversion. Tectonophysics 608:980–995. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2013.07.016
Koulakov I, Bindi D, Parolai S, Grosser H, Milkereit C (2010) Distribution of seismic velocities and attenuation in the crust beneath the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) from local earthquake tomography. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:207–224. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090105
Le Pichon X, Chamot-Rooke N, Rangin C, Sengor AMC (2003) The North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara. J Geophys Res 108(B4):2179. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001862
MATLAB version 7.10.0 (2010) The MathWorks Inc. Natick.
McClusky S, Balassanian S, Barka A, Demir C, Ergintav S, Georgiev I, Gurkan O, Hamburger M, Hurst K, Kahle H, Kastens K, Kekelidze G, King R, Kotzev V, Lenk O, Mahmoud S, Mishin A, Nadariya M, Ouzounis A, Paradissis D, Peter Y, Prilepin M, Reilinger R, Sanli I, Seeger H, Tealeb A, Toksöz MN, Veis G (2000) Global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. J Geophys Res 105:5695–5719. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JB900351
McKenzie DP (1972) Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region. Geophys J R Astron Soc 30:109–185
McKenzie DP (1976) The East Anatolian fault: a major structure in eastern Turkey. Earth Planet Sci Lett 29:189–193
Okay AI, Kaslilar-Ozcan A, Imren C, Boztepe-Guney A, Demirbag E (2000) Active faults and evolving strikeslip basins in the Marmara Sea, Northwest Turkey: a multichannel seismic reflection study. Tectonophysics 321:189–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(00)00046-9
Orgulu G (2011) Seismicity and source parameters for small-scale earthquakes along the splays of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Marmara Sea. Geophys J Int 184:385–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04844.x
Ozener H, Arpat E, Ergintav S, Dogru A, Cakmak R, Turgut B, Dogan U (2010) Kinematics of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. J Geodyn 49:141–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2010.01.003
Ozer C, Ozyazicioglu M, Gok E, Polat O (2019) Imaging the crustal structure throughout the east Anatolian fault zone, Turkey, by local earthquake tomography. Pure Appl Geophys 176(6):2235–2261. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2076-6
Ozturk S (2011) Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: temporal and spatial analysis. Acta Geophys 59(2):209–238. https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-010-0050-5
Ozturk S (2020) A study on the variations of recent seismicity in and around the Central Anatolian region of Turkey. Phys Earth Planet Inter 301:106453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2020.106453
Parvez IA, Ram A (1997) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards in the north-east Indian peninsula and Hindukush regions. Pure Appl Geophys 149:731–746. https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050049
Parvez IA, Ram A (1999) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards in the Indian subcontinent. Pure Appl Geophys 154:23–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050219
Pasari S (2018) Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions. Geomat Nat Haz Risk 9(1):568–588. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2018.1466730
Pasari S (2019) Inverse Gaussian versus lognormal distribution in earthquake forecasting: keys and clues. J Seismol 23:537–559. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-019-09822-5
Pasari S, Dikshit O (2014a) Impact of three-parameter Weibull models in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. Pure Appl Geophys 171(7):1251–1281. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-013-0704-8
Pasari S, Dikshit O (2014b) Three-parameter generalized exponential distribution in earthquake recurrence interval estimation. Nat Hazards 73:639–656. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1092-9
Pasari S, Dikshit O (2015a) Distribution of earthquake interevent times in northeast India and adjoining regions. Pure Appl Geophys 172:2533–2544. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0776-0
Pasari S, Dikshit O (2015b) Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh. northwestern India. Earth Planets Space 67:129. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0295-y
Pasari S, Dikshit O (2018) Stochastic earthquake interevent time modeling from exponentiated Weibull distributions. Nat Hazards 90(2):823–842. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3074-1
Patwardhan AS, Kulkami RB, Tocher D (1980) A semi-Markov model for characterizing recurrence of great earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:323–347
Pertsinidou CE, Tsaklidis G, Papadimitriou E (2017) Study of the seismic activity in central Ionian Islands via semi-Markov modelling. Acta Geophys 65:533–541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0040-y
Polat O, Gok E, Yilmaz D (2008) Earthquake hazard of Aegean Extension Region, Turkey. Turk J Earth Sci 17:593–614
Reilinger RE, McClusky S, Oral MB, King RW, Toksoz N, Barka AA, Kinik I, Lenk O, Sanli I (1997) Global positioning system measurements of present-day crustal movements in the Arabia–Africa–Eurasia plate collision zone. J Geophys Res 102:9983–9999. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JB03736
Reilinger R, McClusky S, Vernant P, Lawrence S, Ergintav S, Cakmak R, Ozener H, Kadirov F, Guliev I, Stepanyan R, Nadariya M, Hahubia G, Mahmoud S, Sakr K, ArRajehi A, Paradissis D, al-Aydrus A, Prilepin M, Guseva T, Evren E, Dmitrotsa A, Filikov SV, Gomez F, al-Ghazzi R, Karam G (2006) GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions. J Geophys Res 111:B05411. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004051
Rikitake T (1976) Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones. Tectonophysics 35:335–362
Rikitake T (1991) Assessment of earthquake hazard in the Tokyo Area, Japan. Tectonophysics 199:121–131
Sadeghian R (2012) Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province). J Ind Eng Int 8 (1)
Saroglu F, Emre O, Kuscu I (1992) The East Anatolian fault zone of Turkey. Ann Tecton 6:99–125
Sayil N (2014) Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches. Acta Geophys 49(3):265–281. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-014-0058-4
Sayil N, Osmansahin I (2008) An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia. Nat Hazards 44(1):51–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9141-2
Sengor AMC, Gorur N, Saroglu F (1985) Strike-slip faulting and related basin formation in zones of tectonic escape: Turkey as a case study. In Strike-Slip Faulting and Basin Formation edited by K T Biddle and N Christie- Blick Spec Publ Soc Econ Paleontol Mineral 37:227- 264
Sengor AMC, Tuysuz C, Sakinc M, Eyidogan H, Gorur N, Le Pichon X, Rangin C (2005) The North Anatolian Fault: a new look. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 33:37–112. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.101802.120415
Sertcelik F (2012) Estimation of coda wave attenuation in the East Anatolia Fault Zone, Turkey. Pure Appl Geophys 169(7):1189–1204. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0368-1
Shah HC, Movassate M (1975) Seismic risk analysis of California State water Project. Proc. of Fifth European Conf. on Earthquake Engineering Istanbul 10:156
Sil A, Sitharam TG, Haider ST (2015) Probabilistic models for forecasting earthquakes in the northeast region of India. Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(6):2910–2927. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140361
Straub C, Kahle HG (1997) GPS and geologic estimates of the tectonic activity in the Marmara region, NW Anatolia. J Geophys Res 102:27587–27601. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB02563
Tripathi JN (2006) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26. 2001 earthquake region of Gujarat. India J Seismol 10:119–130. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-005-9004-9
Tunc B, Caka D, Irmak TS, Woith H, Tunç S, Bariş Ş, Özer MF, Lühr BG, Günther E, Grosser H, Zschau J (2011) The Armutlu network: an investigation into the seismotectonic setting of Armutlu-Yalova-Gemlik and the surrounding regions. Ann Geophys 54(1):35–45. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4877
Urhammer RA (1986) Characteristics of northern and central California seismicity. Earthq Notes 1:21
Utsu T (1984) Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bull Earthq Res Inst, Univ Tokyo 59:53–66
Yadav RBS, Tripathi JN, Rastogi BK, Chopra S (2008) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard in Gujarat and adjoining region of India. Pure Appl Geophys 165:1813–1833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-008-0397-6
Yadav RBS, Tripathi JN, Rastogi BK, Das MC, Chopra S (2010) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in Northeast India and adjoining region. Pure Appl Geophys 167(11):1331–1342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0105-1
Yadav RBS, Bayrak Y, Tripathi JN, Chopra S, Singh AP, Bayrak E (2011) A probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard parameters in NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. Pure Appl Geophys 169:1619–1639. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0434-8
Yolsal-Cevikbilen S, Biryol CR, Beck S, Zandt G, Taymaz T, Adiyaman HE, Ozacar HE (2012) 3-D crustal structure along the North Anatolian Fault Zone in north-central Anatolia revealed by local earthquake tomography. Geophys J lnt 188:819–849. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05313.x
Yonlu O, Altunel E, Karabacak V (2017) Geological and geomorphological evidence for the southwestern extension of the east Anatolian fault zone, Turkey. Earth Planet Sci Lett 469:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.03.034
Zor E, Ozalaybey S, Gurbuz C (2006) The crustal structure of the eastern Marmara region (Turkey) by teleseismic receiver functions. Geophys J Int 167:213–222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365246X.2006.03042.x
Acknowledgements
The authors greatly thank the editors and the four anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. The authors also thank Turkey’s regional earthquake data centers AFAD and KOERI, for providing data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Longjun Dong
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Coban, K.H., Sayil, N. Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones. Arab J Geosci 13, 971 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05945-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05945-z