Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

  • Published:
Pure and Applied Geophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abe, K. (1981), Magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes from 1904 to 1980, Phys. Earth Planet Inter. 27, 72–92.

  • Ambraseys, N. and Bilham, R. (2003), MSK isoseismal intensities evaluated for the 1897 Great Assam Earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 93(2), 655–673.

  • Auden, J. B. (1959), Earthquake in relation to the Damodar valley project, Proc. Symp. Earthq. Eng. 1, University of Roorkee, Roorkee.

  • Bhatia, S. C., Kumar, M. R., and Gupta, H. K. (1999), A probabilistic hazard map of India and adjoining regions, Ann. Geofis. 42, 1153–1164.

  • Bilham, R. and England, P. (2001), Plateau pop-up during the great 1897 Assam earthquake, Nature 410, 806–809.

  • BIS. (2002), Is 1893 (part 1)–2002: indian standard criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures, part 1 – general provisions and buildings, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi.

  • Chandra, U. (1992), Seismotectonics of Himalaya, Curr. Sci. 62(1&2), 40–71.

  • Cornell, C. A. (1968), Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606.

  • Das, S, Gupta, V. K., and Gupta, I. D. (2005), Codal provisions of seismic hazard in Northeast India, Curr. Sci. 89(12), 2004–2008.

  • Das, S., Gupta, I. D., and Gupta, V. K. (2006), a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of northeast India, Earthq. Spectra 22(1), 1–27.

  • Dutta, T. K. (1964), Seismicity of Assam-zone of tectonic activity, Bull. Nat. Geophys. Res. Inst., 2, 152–163.

  • Ellsworth, W. L., Mattews, M. V., Ndeau, R. M., Nishenko, S. P., Reasenberg, P. A., and Simpson, R. W. (1999), A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities. Workshop on Earthquake recurrence: State of the art and directions for the future, Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica, Rome, Italy, 22–25 February, 1999.

  • Fedotov, S. A. (1968), On the seismic cycle, the possibilities for quantitative seismic zoning and long range seismic prediction. Seismic zoning in the USSR, Moscow, Nauka, 121–150 (in Russian).

  • Gaur, V. K. and Chauhan, R. K. S. (1968), Quantitative measures of seismicity applied to Indian regions, Bull. Indian Soc. Earth. Tech. 5, 63–78.

  • GSI. (2000), Seismotectonic atlas of India and its environs, Geological Survey of India, Spec. Publ. no. 59, Kolkata.

  • Gupta, H. K., Rajendran, K., and Singh, H. N. (1986), Seismicity of the northeast India region: Part I: The data base, J. Geol. Soc. India 28, 345–365.

  • Hagiwara, Y. (1974), Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain, Tectonophysics 23, 313–318.

  • Kaila, K. L. and Rao, M. (1979), Seismic zoning maps of Indian sub-continent, Geophys. Res. Bull. 17, 293–301.

  • Kelleher, J., Savino, J., Rowlett, H., and MacConn, W. (1974), Why and where great thrust earthquakes occur along Island arcs? J. Geophys. Res. 79, 4889–4899.

  • Khattri, K. N., Rogers, A. M., Perkins, D. M., and Algermissen, S. T. (1984), A seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas, Tectonophysics 108, 93–134.

  • Mogi, K. (1968), Sequential occurrences of recent great earthquakes, J. Phys. Earth 16, 30–36.

  • Nandy , D. R. (1986), Tectonic, seismicity and gravity of Northeastern India and adjoining region, Mem. Geol. Surv. India 119, 13–16.

  • Nishenko, S. P. and Bullard, R. (1987), A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 77, 1382–1399.

  • Oldham, T. (1883), A catalogue of Indian earthquakes from the earliest time to the end of A.D. 1869, Mem. Geol. Surv. India 19(3), pp 53.

  • Parvez, I. A. and Ram, A. (1997), Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards in the north-east Indian peninsula and Hindukush regions, Pure Appl. Geophys. 149, 731–746.

  • Parvez, I. A. and Ram, A. (1999), Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards in the Indian subcontinent, Pure Appl. Geophys. 154, 23–40.

  • Rikitake, T. (1976), Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones, Tectonophysics 35, 305–362.

  • Rikitake, T. (1991), Assessment of earthquake hazard in the Tokyo area, Japan, Tectonophysics 199, 121–131.

  • Rikitake, T. (1999), Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements, Earth Planet Space 51, 147–157.

  • Shanker, D. and Papadimitriou, E. E. (2004), Regional time-predictable modeling in Hindukush-Pamir-Himalayas region, Tectonophysics 390, 129–140.

  • Shanker, D. and Sharma, M. L. (1998), Estimation of seismic hazard parameters for the Himalayas and its vicinity from complete data files, Pure Appl. Geophys. 152, 267–279.

  • Sharma, M. L. and Malik, S. (2006), Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and estimation of spectral strong ground motion on bed rock in north east India, 4th International Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Taipei, Taiwan, October 12–13, Paper No. 015.

  • Tandon, A. N. and Srivastava, H. N. (1974), Earthquake occurrences in India, Earthquake Engineering, Jai Krishna Volume, Sarita Prakashan (publ.), 1–48.

  • Tripathi, J. N. (2006), Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujarat, India, J. Seismol. 10 119–130.

  • Utsu, T. (1972), Large earthquakes near Hokkaido and the expectancy of the occurrence of a large earthquake of Nemuro, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction 7, 7–13.

  • Utsu, T. (1984), Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo 59, 53–66.

  • Wesnousky, S. G., Scholz, C. H., Shimazaki, K., and Matsuda, T. (1984), Integration of geological and seismological data for the analysis of seismic hazard: A case study of Japan, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 74, 687–708.

  • Yadav, R. B. S., Tripathi, J. N., Rastogi, B. K., and Chopra, S. (2008), Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard in Gujarat and adjoining region of India, Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 1813–1833.

  • Yadav, R. B. S., Bormann, P., Rastogi, B. K., Das, M. C., and Chopra, S. (2009), A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region, Seism. Res. Lett. 80(4), 609–627.

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the Department of Science and Technology and Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India for providing financial support. The authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr. A. Kijko, Editor PAGEOPH and two anonymous reviewers for their generous comments and thorough review of this manuscript, which has improved the quality significantly.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Ram Bichar Singh Yadav

    Present address: Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, Ocean Valley, P.B. No. 21, IDA Jeedimetla PO, Hyderabad, 500055, India

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Raisan, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382009, India

    Ram Bichar Singh Yadav, Bal Krishna Rastogi & Sumer Chopra

  2. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, 211002, India

    Jayant Nath Tripathi

  3. Shiv-Vani Oil and Gas Exploration Ltd, Agartala, India

    Mridul Chandra Das

Authors
  1. Ram Bichar Singh Yadav
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jayant Nath Tripathi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Bal Krishna Rastogi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mridul Chandra Das
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Sumer Chopra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ram Bichar Singh Yadav.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yadav, R.B.S., Tripathi, J.N., Rastogi, B.K. et al. Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions. Pure Appl. Geophys. 167, 1331–1342 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0105-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0105-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation