Abstract
Presented herein is a methodology for the seismic assessment of the reliability of urban water distribution networks (UWDN) based on general seismic assessment standards, as per the American Lifelines Alliance (ALA) guidelines, and localized historical records of critical risk-of-failure metrics pertaining to the specific UWDN under assessment. The proposed methodology is applicable to UWDN under both normal or abnormal operating conditions (such as intermittent water supply), and the assessment of reliability incorporates data of past non-seismic damage, the vulnerabilities of the network components against seismic loading, and the topology of a UWDN. Historical data obtained using records of pipe burst incidents are processed to produce clustered ‘survival curves’, depicting the pipes’ estimated survival rate over time. The survival curves are then used to localize the generalized fragility values of the network components (primarily pipes), as assessed using the approach suggested by the ALA guidelines. The network reliability is subsequently assessed using Graph Theory (Djikstra’s shortest path algorithm), while the system reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated on a simple small-scale network and on a real-scale district metered area (DMA). The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that a network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows for the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity-upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adachi T, Ellingwood BR (2008) Serviceability of earthquake-damaged water systems: effects of electrical power availability and power backup systems on system vulnerability. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 9(1):78–88
Ahmad SH (1988) Simple enumeration of minimal cutsets of acyclic directed graph. IEEE Trans Reliab 37(5):484–487
ALA (2001) American Lifelines Alliance: seismic fragility formulations for water systems—guideline and appendices. American Lifelines Alliance, Washington DC, USA
Andreou SA, Marks DH, Clark RM (1987) New methodology for modeling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: applications. Adv Water Resour AWREDI 10:2–10
Ballantyne D (1990) Earthquake loss estimation modelling of the Seatle water system. Report N. 886005, supported by U.S. Geological Survey Project Number 14-08-0001-G1526, Kennedy/Jenks Consultants
Carrion A, Solano H, Gamiz ML, Debon A (2010) Evaluation of the reliability of a water supply network from right-censored and left-truncated break data. Water Resour Manag 24(12):2917–2935
Christodoulou SE (2011) Water network assessment and reliability analysis by use of survival analysis. Water Resour Manag 25:1229–1238
Christodoulou S, Agathokleous A (2012) A study on the effects of intermittent water supply on the vulnerability of urban water distribution networks. Water Sci Technol Water Supply 12(4):523–530
Christodoulou SE, Deligianni A (2010) A neurofuzzy decision framework for the management of water distribution networks. Water Resour Manag 24(1):139–156
Christodoulou SE, Ellinas G (2010) Pipe routing through ant colony optimization. ACSE J Infrastruct Syst 16(2):149–159
Christodoulou S, Deligianni A, Aslani P, Agathokleous A (2009) A neurofuzzy decision framework for the management of water distribution networks. Comput Environ Urban Syst 33(2):138–149
Christodoulou S, Agathokleous A, Charalambous B, Adamou A (2010) Proactive risk-based integrity assessment of water distribution networks. Water Resour Manag 24(13):3715–3730
Cimellaro GP, Renschler C, Arendt L, Bruneau M, Reinhorn AM (2011) Community resilience index for road network systems. In: EURODYN 2011: 8th international conference on structural dynamics, Leuven, Belgium
Clark RM, Stafford CL, Goodrich JA (1982) Water distribution systems: a spatial and cost evaluation. J Water Resour Plann Manag Div 108:243–256
Dietlevsen O (1979) Narrow reliability bounds for structural systems. J Struct Mech 7(4):453–472
Esposito S (2011) Seismic risk analysis of gas distribution networks. PhD thesis, University of Naples Fegerico II, Ph.D. Porgramme in Seismic Risk, Naples, Italy
FEMA (2003) HAZUS-MH technical manual: earthquake model. Multi hazard loss estimation methodology. United States Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC
Fragiadakis M, Vamvatsikos D, Christodoulou SE (2012) Reliability assessment of urban water networks. In: 15th world conference on earthquake engineering, Lisbon, Portugal
Gibbons A (1985) Algorithmic graph theory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Goulter IC, Kazemi A (1988) Spatial and temporal groupings of water main pipe breakage in Winnipeg. Can J Civ Eng 15:91–97
Henley EJ, Williams RA (1973) Graph theory in modern engineering. Academic Press, New York
Hintze J (2006) NCSS, PASS and GESS. NCSS, Kaysville
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S, May S (2008) Applied survival analysis: regression modeling of time to event data. Wiley, Hoboken
Javanbarg MB, Scawthorn C, Kiyono J, Ono Y (2009) Minimal path sets seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks with link and node failures. In: Lifeline earthquake engineering in a multihazard environment. ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, Oakland, CA
Kaplan EL, Meier P (1958) Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc 53:457–481
Kleiner Y, Rajani B (1999) Using limited data to assess future needs. J Am Water Works Assoc 91:47–61
Kottegoda NT, Rosso R (1997) Statistics, probability and reliability for civil and environmental engineers. McGraw-Hill College, USA
Melchers RE (1999) Structural reliability: analysis and prediction. Wiley, New York
Nuti C, Rasulo A, Vanzi I (2010) Seismic safety of network structures and infrastructures. Struct Infrastruct Eng 6(1–2):95–110
Park S (2008) Identifying the hazard characteristics of pipes in water distribution systems by using the proportional hazards model: theory. KSCE J Civ Eng 8(6):663–668
Park S (2011) Estimating the timing of the economical replacement of water mains based on the predicted pipe break times using the proportional hazards models. Water Resour Manag 25(10):2509–2524
Park S, Choi CL, Kim JH, Bae CH (2010) Evaluating the economic residual life of water pipes using the proportional hazards model. Water Resour Manag 24(12):3195–3217
Pineda-Porras OA, Ordaz M (2012) Seismic damage estimation in buried pipelines due to future earthquakes—the case of Mexico City water system. In: Earhquake-resistant structures—design, assessment and rehabilitation. Intech
Pinto J, Varum H, Bentes I, Agarwal J (2010) A theory of vulnerability of water pipe network (TVWPN). Water Resour Manag 24(15):4237–4254
Poljanšek K, Bono F, Gutièrrez E (2012) Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems: the case of European gas and electricity networks. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 41:61–79
Prasad TD, Hong S-H, Park N (2003) Reliability based design of water distribution networks using multi-objective genetic algorithms. KSCE J Civ Eng 7(3):351–361
Ramachandran K (2004) System reliability bounds: a new look with improvements. Civ Eng Environ Syst 21(4):265–278
Ramirez-Marquez JE, Coit DW (2005) A Monte-Carlo simulation approach for approximating multi-state two-terminal reliability. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 87:235–264
Romero N, O’Rourke TD, Nozick LK, Davis CA (2010) Seismic hazards and water supply performance. J Earthq Eng 14(7):1022–1043
Rupakhety E, Sigurdsson SU, Papageorgiou AS, Sigbjrnsson R (2011) Quantification of ground-motion paramters and response spectra in the near-fault region. Bull Earthq Eng 9:893–930
Shamir U, Howard C (1979) An analytical approach to scheduling pipe replacement. J Am Water Works Assoc 71:248–258
Song J, Der Kiureghian A (2003) Bounds on system reliability by linear programming. J Eng Mech 129(6):627–636
Tuhovcak L, Rucka J, Juhanak T (2006) Security of water supply systems: from source to tap. In: NATO science for peace and security series C: environmental security, vol 8. Springer, Netherlands, pp 169–182
Wang Y, Au S-K, Fu Q (2010) Seismic risk assessment and mitigation of water supply systems. Earthquake Spectra 26(1):257–273
Yannopoulos S, Spiliotis M (2012) Water distribution system reliability based on minimum cut-set approach and the hydraulic availability. Water Resour Manag 27(6):1821–1836
Acknowledgements
The work presented herein is part of the NIREAS-IWRC research project, which is co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Cyprus Research Promotion Foundation (Grants No. NEA YPODOMI/STRAT/0308/09). Special thanks are also extended to the University of Cyprus for partially funding the work, and the Water Boards of Limassol and Nicosia for providing operational data on their piping networks.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fragiadakis, M., Christodoulou, S.E. & Vamvatsikos, D. Reliability Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Networks Under Seismic Loads. Water Resour Manage 27, 3739–3764 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0378-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0378-0