Abstract
Tropical cyclone ‘Tauktae’, in May 2021, was the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone that formed in the Arabian Sea after Kandla in 1998. It turned into an extremely severe cyclonic storm undergoing rapid intensification under favourable conditions. The current study is an effort to understand the role of warm ocean conditions favourable for the genesis and intensification of extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Tauktae’. Very high sea surface temperature anomaly (0.8–1.6°C) and high tropical cyclone heat potential (120–140 kJ/cm2) over the tropical cyclone genesis point and along the tropical cyclone track provided the conditions for the rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone ‘Tauktae’. High sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone heat potential enhanced the accumulated cyclone energy of tropical cyclone ‘Tauktae’, which is very high when compared to the climatological mean. The presence of warm core eddies was seen in the area, where the tropical cyclone had rapidly intensified from a very severe cyclone to an extremely severe cyclonic storm from 16 to 17 May 2021. High sea surface temperature, tropical cyclone heat potential, and warm-core eddies create warm ocean conditions that provided continuous energy in the form of sensible and latent heat flux from the ocean surface to the atmosphere. Our analysis shows that along with the favourable atmospheric conditions, the excessively warm ocean led to the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclone ‘Tauktae’. As the Arabian Sea continues to warm, it is inevitable to monitor and understand its effect on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification, which can open the way to predict and mitigate the catastrophic effect of such extreme weather events over India.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets of sea surface temperature from 1990 to 2020 having a grid resolution of 0.25°×0.25° used in the current study is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html. The ocean temperature and sea surface height data that support the findings in this study is obtained from Copernicus marine service https://marine.copernicus.eu/. Data of relative vorticity, relative humidity, temperature, and wind used in this study is obtained from ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets. Further, the data on tropical cyclone wind speed and frequency are available at https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/. The data of geostrophic current was calculated using the zonal and meridional geostrophic velocity (aforementioned in section 4 (Eq. 4)).
Code availability
The computer code used for the analysis was written in Ferret. Specific codes will be available upon reasonable request.
References
Abish B, Cherchi A, Ratna SB (2018) ENSO and the recent warming of the Indian Ocean. Int J of Climatol 38(1):203–214. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5170
Albert J, Bhaskaran PK (2020) Ocean heat content and its role in tropical cyclogenesis for the Bay of Bengal basin. Clim Dyn 55:3343–3362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05450-9
Ali MM, Jagadeesh PSV, Jain S (2007) Effects of eddies on Bay of Bengal cyclone intensity. Eos Trans Am Geophys union 88(8):93–95. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO080001
Balaguru K, Ruby Leung L, Yoon JH (2013) Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at inter annual timescales. Environ Res Lett 8:44009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044009
Bell GD, Chelliah M (2006) Leading tropical modes associated with inter annual and multi decadal fluctuations in north Atlantic hurricane activity. J Clim 19:590–612. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3659.1
Bender MA, Ginis I (2000) Real-case simulations of hurricane—ocean interaction using a high-resolution coupled model: effects on hurricane intensity. Mon Weather Rev 128:917–946. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0917:RCSOHO>2.0.CO;2
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Climate 18:2996–3006. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3457.1
Chowdhury RR, Prasanna Kumar S, Narvekar J, Chakraborty A (2020) Back-to-back occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea during October–November 2015: causes and responses. J Geophys Res Ocean 125:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015836
Collins M et al (2019) Extremes, abrupt changes and managing risks. In IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (edsPortneretal.)
Deo AA, Ganer DW, Nair G (2011) Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario. Nat Hazard 59:771–786. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8
Deshpande M, Singh VK, Ganadhi MK, Roxy MK, Emmanuel R, Kumar U (2021) Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 57:3545–3567. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05880-z
Emanuel KA (1986) An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: steady-state maintenance. J Atmos Sci 43:585–605. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469
Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906
Evan AT, Camargo SJ (2011) A climatology of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms. J Clim. 24(1):140–158. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1
George JJ (1960) Weather forecasting for aeronautics. Academic Press, USA, Quarterly J R Meteorolog Soc 371(87):120–120. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708737120
Ghetiya S, Nayak RK (2020) Genesis potential parameter using satellite derived daily tropical cyclone heat potential for North Indian Ocean. Int J Remote Sens 41(23):8934–8947. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2020.1795299
Goni G, DeMaria M et al (2009) Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Oceanogr 22:190–197. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.78
Gopalan AKS, Gopala Krishna VV, Ali MM, Sharma R (2000) Detection of Bay of Bengal eddies from TOPEX and in situ observations. J Mar Res 58:721–734. https://doi.org/10.1357/002224000321358873
Gray WM (1975) Tropical cyclone genesis. Dept. of Atmos. Sci. Paper No. 234, Colo. State Univ., Ft, Collins, CO, p 121
Gray WM (1978) Hurricane and their formation structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Prepared for the RMS/AMS conference on met over the tropical oceans, London August 21–25 1978 and RMS conference volume
Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, James Glaisher House, Grenville Place, Bracknell, pp 155–218
Hallam S, Guishard M, Josey SA et al (2021) Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955-2019. Environ. Res. Lett 16:34052. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe493
Hersbach DD (2016) ERA5 reanalysis is in production. ECMWF Newslett 147:7
IMD (2011) Cyclone atlas – tracks of cyclones and depressions over north Indian Ocean (from 1891 onwards). In: Electronic version 2.0/2011 Cyclone Warnings and Research Center. India Meteorological Department, Chennai
India Meteorological Department (2017) Report on cyclonic disturbances over north Indian Ocean during 2017. Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre-Tropical Cyclones No. ESSO/IMD/CWD Report No-01 (2018)/15, 2018
Jangir B, Swain D, Ghose SK (2021) Influence of eddies and tropical cyclone heat potential on intensity changes of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. Adv Space Res 68(2):773–786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.01.011
Klotzbach PJ (2006) Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005). Geophys Res Lett 33:L10805. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025881
Knutson T, Camargo SJ, Chan JCL et al (2020) Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: part 2: projected response to anthropogenic warming. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 101:E303–E322. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1
Kotal SD, Bhattacharya SK (2013) Tropical cyclone genesis potential parameter (GPP) and its application over the north Indian Sea. Mausam 64:149–170. https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v64i1.663
Kotal SD, Kundu PD, Bhowmik SKR (2009) Analysis of cyclogeneis parameter for developing and non developing low pressure systems over the Indian Sea. Nat Hazards 50:389–402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9348-5
Krishna KM, Rao SR (2009) Study of the intensity of super cyclonic storm GONU using satellite observations. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geo inf 11:108–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2008.11.001
Leiper D, Volgenau D (1972) Hurricane heat potential in the Gulf of Mexico. J Phys Oceanogr 2:218224. https://doi.org/10.1175/15200485(1972)002<0218:HHPOTG>2.0.CO;2
Lin II, Chen CH, Pun IF, Liu WT, Wu CC (2009) Warm ocean anomaly, air sea fluxes, and the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008). Geophys Res Lett 36:L03817. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035815
Lin II, Goni GJ, Knaff JA, Forebes C, Ali MM (2013) Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge. Nat Haz 66:1481–1500. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069012-0214-5
McBride JL, Zehr RM (1981) Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: comparison of non-developing versus developing systems. J Atmos Sci 38:1132–1151. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1152:OAOTCF>2.0.CO;2
Mohanty S, Nadimpalli OKK et al (2019) Role of sea surface temperature in modulating life cycle of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. Trop Cyclone Res Rev 8:68–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.07.007
Mohanty UC, Osuri KK, Pattanayak S, Sinha P (2012) An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment. Nat Hazards 63(3):1319–1335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9810-z
Moon IJ, Kwon SJ (2012) Impact of upper-ocean thermal structure on the intensity of Korean peninsula landfall typhoons. Prog Oceanogr 105:61–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2012.04.008
Murakami H, Vecchi GA, Underwood S (2017) Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea. Nat Clim Chang 7:885–889. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6
Nguyen LT, Molinari J (2015) Simulation of the downshear reformation of a tropical cyclone. J Atmos Sci 72:4529–4551. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0036.1
Park MS, Elsberry RL, Harr PA (2012) Vertical wind shear and ocean heat content as environmental modulators of western north pacific tropical cyclone intensification and decay. Trop cyclone Res Rev 1(4):448–457. https://doi.org/10.6057/2012TCRR04.03
Pielke RA Jr, Gratz J, Landsea CW, Collins D, Saunders MA, Musulin R (2008) Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900−2005. Nat Hazards Rev 9:29–42. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)
Pun IF, Chang YT, Lin II, Tang TY, Lien RC (2011) Typhoon-ocean interaction in the Western North Pacific, part 2. Oceanogr 24(4):32–41. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.92
Rajeevan M, Srinivasan J, Kumar Niranjan K, Gnanaseelan C, Ali MM (2013) On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Atmos Sci Lett 14(4):249–255. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.447
Reddy JP, Sriram D, Gunthe SS et al (2021) Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach. Clim Dyn 56:2855–2879. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05618-3
Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 2:5473–5496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
Rios-Berrios R, Torn RD (2017) Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone intensity changes under moderate vertical wind shear. Mon Wea Rev 145:1717–1738. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0350.1
Roxy MK, Kapoor R, Pascal T, Sébastien M (2014) The curious case of indian ocean warming. J Clim 27(22):8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
Roxy MK, Kapoor R, Terray P (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6:7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423
Sadhuram Y, Maneesha K, RamanaMurty TV (2010) Importance of upper ocean heat content in the intensification and translation speed of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Curr Sci 99:1191–1194
Sadhuram Y, Maneesha K, Murty TVR (2012) Intensification of Aila (May 2009) due to a warm core eddy in the north Bay of Bengal. Nat Hazards 63:1515–1525. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9837-1
Sahoo B, Bhaskaran PK (2016) Assessment on historical cyclone tracks in the Bay of Bengal, east coast of India. Int J Climatol 36(1):95–109. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4331
Sankar N, Kotal S, Kundu P (2013) Analysis of a genesis potential parameter during pre-cyclone watch period over the Bay of Bengal, Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards. Springer; International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Nat Hazards 65(3):2253–2265. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0473-1
Scharroo R, Walter S, Lillibridge J (2005) Satellite altimetry and the intensification of Hurricane Katrina. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 86:366. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005EO400004
Sharma N, Ali MM (2014) Importance of ocean heat content for cyclone studies. Oceanogr 2:124. https://doi.org/10.4172/21657866.1000124
Shay LK, Goni GJ, Black PG (2000) Effects of a warm oceanic feature on Hurricane Opal. Mon Weather Rev 128:1366–1383. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1366:EOAWOF>2.0.CO;2
Simpkins G (2021) Arabian Sea cyclone changes. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2:588. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00210-7
Singh VK, Roxy MK (2022) A review of the ocean-atmosphere interactions during tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. Earth Sci Rev 226:103967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103967
Singh VK, Roxy MK, Deshpande M (2020) The unusual long track and rapid intensification of very severe cyclone Ockhi. Curr Sci 119(5):771–779
Sun M, Tian F, Liu Y, Chen G (2017) An improved automatic algorithm for global eddy tracking using satellite altimeter data. Remote Sens 9(3):206. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9030206
Suneeta P, Sadhuram Y (2018) Tropical cyclone genesis potential index for Bay of Bengal during peak post-monsoon (October– November) season including atmosphere–ocean parameters. Mar Geod 41:86–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2017.1394404
Trenberth KE, Cheng L, Jacobs P et al (2018) Hurricane Harvey links to ocean heat content and climate change adaptation. Earth’s Futur 6:730–744. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000825
UNICEF (2021) India Western-Region Cyclone Response Situation Report. UNICEF
Vinod KK, Soumya M, Tkalich P, Vethamony P (2014) Ocean - atmosphere interaction during thane cyclone: a numerical study using WRF. Indian J Geo-Marine Sci 43:1230–1235
Vissa NK, Satyanarayana ANV, Prasad Kumar B (2013) Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre-and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal. Nat Haz 68:351–371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0625-y
Wada A (2009) Idealized numerical experiments associated with the intensity and rapid intensification of stationary tropical cyclone-like vortex and its relation to initial sea-surface temperature and vortex-induced sea-surface cooling. J Geophys Res 114:D18111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011993
Wada A, Chan JCL (2008) Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 35:L17603. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035129
Wada A, Usui N, Sato K (2012) Relationship of maximum tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperatureand tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Pacific Ocean. J Geophys Res 117:D11118. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017583
Wang B, Zhou X (2008) Climate variation and prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys 99:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0238-z
Wehner M (2021) Simulated changes in tropical cyclone size, accumulated cyclone energy and power dissipation index in a warmer climate. Oceans 2:688–699. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040039
Yokoi S (2010) Environmental and external factors in the genesis of tropical cyclone Nargis in April 2008 over the Bay of Bengal. J Meteorol Soc Japan 88:425–435. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2010-310
Zawislak J, Jiang H, Alvey GR III, Zipser EJ et al (2016) Observations of the structure and evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during intensity change. Part I: Relationship between the thermodynamic structure and precipitation. Mon Wea Rev 144:3333–3354. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0018.1
Zhang Q, Wu LG, Liu QF (2009) Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983−2006. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 90:489–496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2631
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies (KUFOS) for supporting and providing us with the facilities to do this study. We also thank the Directorate of Environment and Climate Change (DoECC), Government of Kerala, for providing the research grant to conduct the study. We thank National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) from which we obtained different ocean and atmospheric data for conducting this study.
Funding
One of the authors, Athira P Ratnakaran, gratefully acknowledges Directorate of Environment and Climate Change (DoECC), Government of Kerala for providing the research grant (G.O (Rt) No.53/2021/Envt.), for conducting this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception, design, and interpretation of the results. Data collection and computations were performed by APR. The whole work was done under the guidance of AB. AB and APR prepared the final version of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ratnakaran, A.P., Abish, B. Role of warm ocean conditions in the genesis and rapid intensification of tropical cyclone ‘Tauktae’ along the west coast of India. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 417–430 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04480-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04480-7