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Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

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Abstract

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one.

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Acknowledgments

Authors are thankful to the director of I.I.T.M. for his support. They acknowledge Carl J. Schreck III of University of Albany for the Global cyclone tracks and cyclogenesis data for individual oceans making available on the website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/. Authors are grateful to Dr. Brian Doty for the GrADs software, which is used for preparing graphics. Finally, reviewer’s suggestions are gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    A. A. Deo, D. W. Ganer & G. Nair

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  1. A. A. Deo
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  2. D. W. Ganer
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  3. G. Nair
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Correspondence to A. A. Deo.

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Deo, A.A., Ganer, D.W. & Nair, G. Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario. Nat Hazards 59, 771–786 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8

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