Abstract
A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the Indian Sea is proposed. The parameter is defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The variables are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, reanalysis data, averaged within a circle of 2.5° radius around the centre of cyclonic system. The parameter is tested with a sample dataset of 35 nondeveloping and developing low-pressure systems that formed over the Indian Sea during the period 1995–2005. The result shows that there is a distinction between GPP values for nondeveloping and developing systems in more than 85% cases. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems than for nondeveloping systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of a cyclonic storm appears to provide a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for providing all the facilities to carry out this research work. The authors acknowledge the use of NCEP data in this research work and are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments to improve the quality of the paper.
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Kotal, S.D., Kundu, P.K. & Roy Bhowmik, S.K. Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea. Nat Hazards 50, 389–402 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9348-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9348-5