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Spatial–temporal changes in risk of climate-related yield reduction of winter wheat during 1973–2014 in Anhui province, southeast China

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Abstract

Winter wheat is one of the main food crops in Anhui province, southeast China. To ensure the regional food security under the background of climate change, the risk of climate-related yield reduction (CRYR) of winter wheat in Anhui was analyzed by using the theory of climate-related yield and two mode of principal component analysis (PCA). Based on the yield data of winter wheat from 1973 to 2014 in 74 districts/counties, the main findings are as follows: (1) with using R-mode PCA and several yield reduction indicators, the north Anhui, especially the area along Huaihe River, was identified as the higher risk areas for CRYR; (2) at the scale of whole province, the risk of CRYR presented a significant interdecadal change, and there was a decline of risk occurred since 2000; (3) with using S-mode PCA and the annual CRYR series, the risk of CRYR in north Anhui during 1973–2014 was decreasing, while those in south Anhui was increasing; (4) during the non-growing period of winter wheat, the large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation indices (LOACI) as Tropical Southern Atlantic Index (TSA), Eastern Tropical Pacific SST (Nino 3*), Southern oscillation index (SOI), and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) had been proved to be the important antecedent signal for CRYR anomalies.

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Data availability

Purchased from the Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics of China, and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

Code availability

No code was developed in the current study.

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Funding

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFD1002202, 2018YFD0300905).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang, Fangmin Zhang & Zhenghua Hu

  2. Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center of Anhui Province (Anhui Agrometeorological Center), Hefei, 230031, China

    Jinhua Chen

Authors
  1. Jin Huang
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  2. Jinhua Chen
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  3. Fangmin Zhang
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  4. Zhenghua Hu
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Contributions

Jin Huang was mainly committed to data analysis/interpretation and manuscript preparation; Jinhua Chen was mainly committed to data acquisition; Fangmin Zhang was mainly committed to study design; Zhenghua Hu was mainly committed to manuscript revision.

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Correspondence to Fangmin Zhang or Zhenghua Hu.

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Huang, J., Chen, J., Zhang, F. et al. Spatial–temporal changes in risk of climate-related yield reduction of winter wheat during 1973–2014 in Anhui province, southeast China. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 49–63 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03929-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03929-5

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