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Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain

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Abstract

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4 %) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (−3.3 to −54.8 kg ha−1 year−1, except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (“973” project: Grant No. 2010CB951502) and by the National Key Technology R&D (Program: Grant No. 2012BAD20B04) and by the Ministry of Agriculture of China (“948” project: Grant No. 2011-G9-03)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, People’s Republic of China

    Kenan Li, Xiaoguang Yang, Zhijuan Liu & Shuo Lu

  2. International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA

    Kenan Li, Hanqin Tian & Shufen Pan

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  1. Kenan Li
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  2. Xiaoguang Yang
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  3. Hanqin Tian
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Correspondence to Xiaoguang Yang.

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Li, K., Yang, X., Tian, H. et al. Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Int J Biometeorol 60, 21–32 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1002-1

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