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Assessing multi-risk characteristics of heat and cold stress for rice across the southern parts of China

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Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa) growth is always threatened by heat as well as cold stress, when it is exposed to natural environment. Heat growing degree hours (HGDH) and cold growing degree hours (CGDH1 and CGDH2) were firstly proposed to quantify heat and cold stress occurred during different growing stages. Information diffusion method was effectively used to fit the distribution and estimate probability of single stress at each station, with an advantage of no limitation in data series. In terms of single stress, highest probability was seen in HGDH, followed by CGDH1 and CGDH2. Seven copula functions, i.e., normal and t, Gumbel-Hougaard, Clayton, Frank, Joe, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq, were applied to fit the distribution of multi-stress with significant dependence, and simple calculation based on single stress was used to quantify the probability for multi-stress with independence. In these copulas, t was the most chosen one in the fitting of HGDH-CGDH1, HGDH-CGDH2, CGDH1-CGDH2, and HGDH-CGDH1-CGDH2, selected by the statistic of Akaike information criterion. Regarding bi-stress, higher joint probability was in HGDH-CGDH1, relative to HGDH-CGDH2 and CGDH1-CGDH2. As expected, the co-occurrence probability of tri-stress was lower than that of bi-stress in the magnitude and spatial extent, while joint probability of tri-stress was larger. Given the condition of occurrence of HGDH or CGDH1, the joint probability of HGDH-CGDH1 was higher than other pairs of bi-stress and tri-stress. It was special that higher joint probability of CGDH1-CGDH2 was detected under the condition of CGDH2 relative to CGDH1. Joint probability of tri-stress was lower under the condition of HGDH-CGDH1, in comparison with HGDH-CGDH2 and CGDH1-CGDH2. Hazards of single stress and multi-stress were expressed by the integration of intensity of stress index and corresponding probability. Most consistent conclusions agreed that central Fujian, Zhejiang, and northeastern Jiangxi were exposed to higher hazard, derived from not only single stress but also multi-stress. These results can be helpful in provision of information regarding prevention and adaptation strategies for rice cultivation as a response to extreme temperature stress.

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Acknowledgments

This study was co-funded by the National Key R&D Program, Ministry of Science and Technology, China [2017YFD0300101]; Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China [GYHY201306045, GYHY201506001].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Lei Zhang & Sen Li

  2. National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Bingyun Yang

  3. National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Dapeng Huang

  4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Zhiguo Huo

  5. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Zhiguo Huo

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  1. Lei Zhang
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  2. Bingyun Yang
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  3. Sen Li
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  4. Dapeng Huang
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  5. Zhiguo Huo
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Correspondence to Zhiguo Huo.

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Zhang, L., Yang, B., Li, S. et al. Assessing multi-risk characteristics of heat and cold stress for rice across the southern parts of China. Int J Biometeorol 63, 1597–1609 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01772-4

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