Abstract
Earthquakes are one of the most terrible and catastrophic natural disasters, responsible for widespread infrastructure and population losses. This study presented an integrated procedure to assess seismic risk considering the seismic hazard, vulnerability, coping capacity and resilience in the seismically active area in Northern, Pakistan. High-resolution satellite imageries coupled with extensive field investigations have led to the creation of building footprints along with building typological information. Twenty-eight envisaging subfactors related to seismic hazard, physical, social and economic vulnerability accompanied by response and recovery were utilized for the evaluation of detail and comprehensive seismic risk map. Overriding the constraint of limited factors and using the rich vulnerability data on a local scale, a detailed risk assessment at high resolution is performed to identify sites prone to high seismic risk. Prepared with Arc GIS grid technology and Analytical Hierarchy Process, the seismic vulnerability map revealed that 1.8 km2 (6.4%) and 0.5 km2 (1.8%) of the total area have high to very high vulnerability. The final seismic risk map shows that villages including Chella Bandi, Dhanni Mysiba, Makri, Dherian Syedian, Ranjata, Baila Noor Shah, Taami, Middle Gojra, Lower Gojra, Rasheed Abad and Upper Chattar lie in high-risk class while Pilot, Madina Market area, Shahnara and Domail villages fall in very high class taking up an area of 1.8 km2 (6.4%). Seismic risk hotspots identified in this study can help decision-makers in prioritizing the deployment of funds and other resource allocation in these areas. This knowledge informs building codes and land use planning, guaranteeing higher building standards in seismically active areas. Critical structures in designated hotspots are the main focus of infrastructure design and retrofitting efforts can be aimed at improving their seismic resilience framework. Plans for emergency responses can be created taking into account possible effects in high-risk regions to enable effective and focused crisis management. Furthermore, these results impact public awareness campaigns, insurance plans, and community involvement programs to lessen the overall damage.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to GIS and Space Applications in Geosciences (GSAG) Laboratory, National Centre of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA), Pakistan for providing support and to the National Centre of Excellence in Geology (NCEG), the University of Peshawar, Pakistan to facilities the research work. The authors also appreciate Talha Mehbob (GSAG) and Gul Muhammad Khan (driver in NCEG) for their efforts in the collection of field data.
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Conceptualization: TA. Methodology: TA, KR, MS. Formal analysis: WA. Resources: MS. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Ahmed, T., Rehman, K., Shafique, M. et al. Local-scale integrated seismic risk assessment using satellite data and field information in Northern Pakistan. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02661-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02661-y