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Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

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Abstract

We present an exposure analysis of infrastructure and lifeline to tephra fallout for a future large-scale explosive eruption of Sakurajima volcano. An eruption scenario is identified based on the field characterization of the last subplinian eruption at Sakurajima and a review of reports of the eruptions that occurred in the past six centuries. A scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessment is performed using the Tephra2 model, considering various eruption durations to reflect complex eruptive sequences of all considered reference eruptions. A quantitative exposure analysis of infrastructures and lifelines is presented primarily using open-access data. The post-event impact assessment of Magill et al. (Earth Planets Space 65:677–698, 2013) after the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake is used to discuss the vulnerability and the resilience of infrastructures during a future large eruption of Sakurajima. Results indicate a main eastward dispersal, with longer eruption durations increasing the probability of tephra accumulation in proximal areas and reducing it in distal areas. The exposure analysis reveals that 2300 km of road network, 18 km2 of urban area, and 306 km2 of agricultural land have a 50% probability of being affected by an accumulation of tephra of 1 kg/m2. A simple qualitative exposure analysis suggests that the municipalities of Kagoshima, Kanoya, and Tarumizu are the most likely to suffer impacts. Finally, the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake demonstrated that the already implemented mitigation strategies have increased resilience and improved recovery of affected infrastructures. Nevertheless, the extent to which these mitigation actions will perform during the VEI 4 eruption presented here is unclear and our hazard assessment points to possible damages on the Sakurajima peninsula and the neighboring municipality of Tarumizu.

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Acknowledgements

All authors are grateful to B.F. Houghton for allowing the completion of this project, to C. Magill for her assistance with various datasets, and to Executive Editor Andy Harris, Editor Laura Sandri, and three anonymous reviewers who greatly contributed to improving this manuscript. Landsat data were accessed through the USGS Global Visualization Viewer.

Funding

S. Biass was supported by the Friedlander foundation and benefited from the additional support of the NSF EAR-1427357 grant. C. Bonadonna was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation grant no. 200021_156255. R. Cioni and M. Pistolesi benefited from the support of funds from M. Ripepe, who is greatly thanked. A. Todde was partially funded by PIA funds from the Earth Science Dept. of the University of Florence.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

    S. Biass

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    S. Biass & C. Bonadonna

  3. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Florence, Italy

    A. Todde, R. Cioni & M. Pistolesi

  4. Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan

    N. Geshi

Authors
  1. S. Biass
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  2. A. Todde
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  3. R. Cioni
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  4. M. Pistolesi
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  5. N. Geshi
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  6. C. Bonadonna
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. Biass.

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Editorial responsibility: L. Sandri

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Biass, S., Todde, A., Cioni, R. et al. Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Bull Volcanol 79, 73 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1153-5

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