Study design and adjudication of final diagnosis
The study sample included three prospective diagnostic cohorts of unselected AHF patients admitted after presenting with acute dyspnoea to the emergency department (ED) of the respective participating university hospitals in three countries using comparable methodology (United Kingdom, France, and Switzerland NCT01831115). Assessment and therapies for AHF, including diuretics, were provided according to guidelines and the discretion of attending physicians [6]. AHF was centrally adjudicated by two independent cardiologists in accordance with European Society of Cardiology guidelines [6]. Inclusion was independent of renal function, although patients with terminal renal failure on renal replacement therapy were excluded. Patients were followed for at least 1 year. This study was performed according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and ethics approval was granted from the respective research ethics committees. All patients provided written informed consent. The authors designed the study, gathered, and analysed the data according to The TRIPOD Statement for studies reporting multivariable prediction models for individual prognosis (Supplemental Table 1), vouch for the data and analysis, wrote the paper, and decided to publish.
Plasma sampling
After obtaining signed informed consent, venous blood was drawn from recumbent patients and collected in tubes containing ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid as anticoagulant. The interval for sample obtainment at admission was up to 4 h (Paris), 2 h (Basel), and 12 h (Leicester) after ED presentation. Bio-ADM and MR-proADM blood samples at hospital (acute ward) discharge were available for patients recruited in Basel and Leicester. Furthermore, due to funding as well as logistics reasons, MR-proADM measurements were available only in a subgroup of unselected patients. To maximise the generalisability of the findings and considering substantial variation in overall length of hospital stay and the availability of rehabilitation units among different countries, “hospital discharge” samples were obtained at discharge from the acute ward, prior to possible transfer to a rehabilitation unit. Plasma was stored at − 80 °C until blinded analysis in a central laboratory.
Imaging, renal function, haemoconcentration, and biomarker assays
Transthoracic echocardiography was performed using standard techniques and the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was calculated using the biplane method of discs formula. According to the LVEF, patients were stratified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, LVEF ≥ 50%), mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF, LVEF 40–49), and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, LVEF < 40%). Imaging data were available for patients recruited in Leicester and Basel. Haemoconcentration was defined as an increase in at least three of the four haemoconcentration-defining parameters (haemoglobin, haematocrit, albumin, and total protein) above admission values occurring simultaneously at discharge, as described previously [18]. These parameters as well as clinical data on volume overload such as estimated jugular venous pressure, periphery oedema, or third heart sound were only available in patients recruited in Basel. To determine plasma bio-ADM concentrations, a new double-monoclonal antibody sandwich immunoassay was used (sphingotec GmbH, Hennigsdorf, Germany). This immunoassay selectively detects the C-terminally amidated form of adrenomedullin. In healthy subjects, the median value was previously determined to be 24.7 pg/mL and the 99th percentile 43 pg/mL. The lower detection limit is 3 pg/mL, and intra- and interassay coefficients were 5–10%, and 4–8%, respectively, in the above normal measuring range. The analytical assay sensitivity is 2 ng/L [12, 19]. MR-proADM was measured using an automated sandwich chemiluminescence immunoassay on the KRYPTOR system (B·R·A·H·M·S AG, Hennigsdorf/Berlin, Germany), with a quantification limit of 0.23 nmol/L, a within-run imprecision (coefficient of variation) of 1.9%, and a between-run imprecision (coefficient of variation) of 9.8% [9, 20].
Outcome measures
The two co-primary objectives were: (1) identification of AHF phenotypes with disproportional benefit or harm from medical treatment at discharge in terms of all-cause mortality during the 365-day follow-up. This was assessed by exploring interactions between bio-ADM plasma concentrations and treatment with diuretics, angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta blockers, and aldosterone-antagonists at discharge. (2) Assessment of the prognostic accuracy of bio-ADM for predicting all-cause mortality during the 365-day follow-up. The secondary objectives were defined as (1) and (2) with the combined outcome measure of all-cause mortality and AHF readmissions during follow-up. An additional aim was to directly compare bio-ADM with MR-proADM in these indications. Furthermore, the incremental value of both biomarkers was assessed when added to the OPTIMIZE-HF clinical risk-score, established for predicting up to 90-day all-cause mortality after hospitalisation for AHF [21]. Similarly, the independent predictive value of bio-ADM and MR-proADM was compared to the impact of haemoconcentration during hospitalisation [18].
Endpoints were ascertained blinded to biomarker data from hospital records and electronic databases. Patients who survived until discharge were followed for at least 365 days after the initial hospitalisation. Data on AHF readmissions were not available for patients from Paris (n = 225, 11% of the overall cohort).
Statistical analysis
The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and visual inspection of the distribution of variables was used for testing normality. Continuous variables are presented as medians with interquartile range, and categorical variables as numbers and percentages. Comparisons between groups were made using Chi-square, Mann–Whitney U, and Kruskal–Wallis tests, as appropriate. Spearman’s rho was used to analyse correlations. One-way ANOVA and Eta test statistics were used to assess associations of categorical variables and continuous variables. All-cause mortality and its combination with AHF hospitalisations during follow-up were plotted in Kaplan–Meier curves, and the log-rank test was used to assess differences between groups. The interaction p values between biomarker plasma concentrations and the predefined subgroups according to medication at discharge were calculated in multivariable models using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Further adjustment of these multivariable models was imposed for clinical considerations: the variables age and creatinine plasma concentrations at discharge were incorporated, as both may affect the prescription of heart failure drugs and mortality. Severe renal dysfunction and hypotension (systolic blood pressure below 90 mmHg) were considered clinical criteria, possibly justifying temporary withdrawal of diuretic therapy. In a subgroup of patients with available haemoconcentration data, this parameter as well as bio-ADM or MR-proADM and variables from a validated risk model to predict 365-day all-cause mortality were entered in multivariable regression models [22]. Sensitivity analysis was performed after excluding patients discharged from acute wards to palliative care. Hazard ratios (HR) are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The prognostic accuracy of bio-ADM and MR-proADM plasma concentrations were quantified using the area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) and compared as described previously [23]. Furthermore, time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curves were also used to assess the prognostic accuracy of the OPTIMIZE-HF risk-score alone and its combination with each biomarker. This was a post hoc analysis within prospective studies, and the sample size of the overall cohort was not determined specifically for this analysis [18]. No imputation was performed for missing values. Patients without complete clinical follow-up were censored at the time of the last known contact. All hypothesis testing was 2-sided and after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing (16 tests for interactions for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality) a p value ≤ 0.003 was considered significant. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 25, R version 3.5.1 (“timeROC”).