Abstract
This study identifies that the spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the western tropical Atlantic (WTA) has a pronounced negative correlation with the following winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. This negative correlation is stronger than that between the SSTA over each of the Atlantic Niño region, the north tropical Atlantic or the Atlantic warm pool, and the succeeding winter ENSO. Different SST datasets can recognize the strongest correlation, suggesting that the modulation of the WTA SSTA to the following ENSO variability is robust. Moreover, this modulation has a decadal shift, being weak before the mid-1980s but significantly enhanced thereafter. The intensified modulation of the WTA SSTA to the following ENSO after the mid-1980s displays as that the positive WTA SSTA during spring leads to a significant negative SSTA over the central and eastern tropical Pacific during the subsequent summer, which further develops into La Niña events during the following winter. This significant negative SSTA is induced by the strengthened anomalous easterly over the central equatorial Pacific associated with the enhanced WTA precipitation anomalies in response to the WTA SSTA. Further analysis suggests that this intensified modulation tends to be attributed to the increase in climatological mean SST over the WTA after the mid-1980s. The warmer WTA SST mean states is likely to enhance the convective activity and relevant atmospheric circulation in response to the WTA SSTA forcing, resulting in the intensified modulation of the WTA SSTA to ENSO variability after the mid-1980s.
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The HadISST dataset is available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. The ERSSTv5 dataset is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html. The ICOADS dataset is available at https://icoads.noaa.gov/data.icoads.html. The COBE-SST dataset is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe.html. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. Any other data are available upon request from the corresponding author.
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Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2019YFA0606703), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41675078) and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (No. 2018102).
Funding
This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2019YFA0606703), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41675078) and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (No. 2018102).
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Chen, W., Lu, R. & Ding, H. A decadal intensification in the modulation of spring western tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature to the following winter ENSO after the mid-1980s. Clim Dyn 59, 3643–3655 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06288-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06288-z