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How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

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Abstract

The Choco jet is an important atmospheric feature of Colombian and northern South America hydro-climatology. This work assesses the ability of 26 coupled and 11 uncoupled (AMIP) global climate models (GCMs) included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to simulate the climatological basic features (annual cycle, spatial distribution and vertical structure) of this jet. Using factor and cluster analysis, we objectively classify models in Best, Worst, and Intermediate groups. Despite the coarse resolution of the GCMs, this study demonstrates that nearly all models can represent the existence of the Choco low-level jet. AMIP and Best models present a more realistic simulation of jet. Worst models exhibit biases such as an anomalous southward location of the Choco jet during the whole year and a shallower jet. The model skill to represent this jet comes from their ability to reproduce some of its main causes, such as the temperature and pressure differences between particular regions in the eastern Pacific and western Colombian lands, which are non-local features. Conversely, Worst models considerably underestimate temperature and pressure differences between these key regions. We identify a close relationship between the location of the Choco jet and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and CMIP5 models are able to represent such relationship. Errors in Worst models are related with bias in the location of the ITCZ over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the representation of the topography and the horizontal resolution.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by “Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación de Colombia” (Colciencias) Program no. 5509-543-31966 and Grant no. 115-660-44588. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and they also thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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  1. Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 # 53-108, Medellín, Colombia

    Juan P. Sierra, Paola A. Arias, Sara C. Vieira & Jhoana Agudelo

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Sierra, J.P., Arias, P.A., Vieira, S.C. et al. How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?. Clim Dyn 51, 2247–2265 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4010-5

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