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Regional climate of the subtropical central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models—part I: past performance (1980–2005)

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Abstract

This study assesses the performance of 15 high resolution global climate models (GCMs) over the complex orographic region of the subtropical central Andes from available simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The simulated past climate (1980–2005) was compared against the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset and the ERA-Interim reanalysis, considered as reference datasets, to evaluate regional and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation, as well as sea level pressure and circulation. A good agreement was found between the simulations and the reference datasets for winter precipitation and for temperature over both seasons. Whilst all models correctly reproduce the annual cycle of precipitation, some of them overestimate winter totals. ERA-Interim does not adequately represent summer precipitation over the region, and some of the models analyzed also show the same deficiency. All models correctly reproduce the northward migration of the South Pacific subtropical high during winter, although some of them underestimate the maximum central pressure. During summer, most models fail to show the low level north–south flow parallel to the eastern foothills of the Andes, a feature known as the Low Level Jet. Further analysis of the results of the simulations led to the selection of a sub-set of five CMIP5 GCMs to construct a reduced ensemble. This reduced ensemble is a better representation than the multi-model mean of the 15 GCMs of the past climate at this region and would be recommended for future studies.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which helped strengthen the manuscript. This work has been supported by project UBA-20020130200142BA from the University of Buenos Aires. We acknowledge the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the CMIP5 model output. We are grateful to the ECWMF and the CRU for providing reanalysis and gridded observed data sets. Finally, we thank Dr. D. Baumgardner for the editorial and language review of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Natalia Zazulie & Matilde Rusticucci

  2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Natalia Zazulie & Matilde Rusticucci

  3. Unidad Mixta Internacional, Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI-IFAECI), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Natalia Zazulie & Matilde Rusticucci

  4. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico

    Graciela B. Raga

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  1. Natalia Zazulie
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  2. Matilde Rusticucci
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  3. Graciela B. Raga
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Correspondence to Natalia Zazulie.

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382_2017_3560_MOESM1_ESM.tif

Fig. S1 Mean 200 hPa wind speed in m seg−1 (shaded) and direction (arrows) from the different GCMs for summer over the period 1980-2005. (TIF 95643 KB)

382_2017_3560_MOESM2_ESM.tif

Fig. S2 Mean 200 hPa wind speed in m seg−1 (shaded) and direction (arrows) from the different GCMs for winter over the period 1980-2005. (TIF 93037 KB)

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Zazulie, N., Rusticucci, M. & Raga, G.B. Regional climate of the subtropical central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models—part I: past performance (1980–2005). Clim Dyn 49, 3937–3957 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3560-x

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