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Dynamics of decadal variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre: a stochastically forced oscillator

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Abstract

Internal variability of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is investigated in a 600 years control simulation of a comprehensive coupled climate model. The subpolar gyre shows irregular oscillations of decadal time scale with most spectral power between 15 and 20 years. Positive and negative feedback mechanisms act successively on the circulation leading to an internal oscillation. This involves periodically enhanced deep convection in the subpolar gyre center and intermittently enhanced air-sea thermal coupling. As a result, anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be transferred to the ocean on the ocean’s intrinsic time scale, exciting the oscillator stochastically. A detailed understanding of oscillatory mechanisms of the ocean and their sensitivity to atmospheric forcing holds considerable potential for decadal predictions as well as for the interpretation of proxy data records.

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Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge Sébastien Denvil for access to the model data as well as discussions with Jürgen Bader and Thomas F. Stocker. This work greatly benefited from the advice of two anonymous referees. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s 7th framework program (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (‘THOR: Thermohaline Circulation – At Risk’, 2008-2012). The climate simulations were carried out in the framework of the EC-FP6 project ‘ENSEMBLES’. A.B. was funded by the Marie Curie Actions project ‘NICE’ (MRTN-CT-2006-036127), the Research Council of Norway project ‘TOPPNICE’ and the National Centre of Competence in Research ‘Climate’ funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation. This is publication no. A367 from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

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  1. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Andreas Born

  2. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland

    Andreas Born

  3. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Andreas Born

  4. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

    Andreas Born

  5. Laboratoire d’océanographie et du climat: experimentation et approches numériques, IPSL/UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France

    Juliette Mignot

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Born, A., Mignot, J. Dynamics of decadal variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre: a stochastically forced oscillator. Clim Dyn 39, 461–474 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1180-4

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