Abstract
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21, breaking the low-temperature records in many cities. How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue. The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes, further influencing the cold conditions in China. However, climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times. Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1–2 month advancement. In this work, the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored. For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction, through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric–oceanic initial conditions, the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event. A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020. For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020, an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model, which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean, is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.
摘要
2020/21年初冬, 中国连续发生多起极端寒潮事件, 多个城市打破历史低温记录. 如何对极端冷事件提前做出准确预测仍然是短期气候预测迫在眉睫的难题. 前人研究已强调了暖北极和冷热带的协同作用会加剧冷空气从极地向中高纬的入侵, 然而现有的短期气候预测模式并未能有效地提前预测出这两个海洋环境在2020年的异常演变: 大多数季节预测仅在气候异常信号已较为明显的夏季及之后才得以预测出2020/21年拉尼娜事件; 而对2020年秋季北极海冰的极端偏少, 大多气候模式在提前1-2个月的预测中也是大为低估的. 因此, 本研究进一步利用数值试验探索了有助于提高这两个海洋环境的季节预测准确性的相关物理因素. 通过不同大气-海洋初始条件的敏感性试验, 揭示2020年春季赤道太平洋东南风异常对激发这次拉尼娜事件有不可替代的作用, 对大气表面风场的有效 (耦合) 同化有助于成功预测出从2020年春季就开始爆发的冷事件; 而对2020年秋季北极海冰极端偏少的预测而言, 来自北冰洋中部的异常气旋性环流将异常偏暖空气从西伯利亚卷入北冰洋的物理过程, 则被认为是成功预测北极海冰范围严重偏低的重要因素.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments and suggestions. This work was supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41876012 and 41861144015; 42175045), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB42000000).
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Article Highlights
• The predictability of ocean environments that contributed to the 2020/21 extreme cold events in China is evaluated.
• Predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring 2020 played an irreplaceable role in triggering the 2020/21 La Niña.
• Abnormally hot air over Siberia, swept by an anomalous cyclonic circulation into the Arctic Ocean, contributed to the sea ice loss in fall 2020.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21.
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The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China: 2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss
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Zheng, F., Liu, JP., Fang, XH. et al. The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China: 2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 658–672 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1130-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1130-y