Abstract
Using observational datasets and numerical model experiments, the mechanism on the slowly varying change in the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated. The decadal-window (11-, 15-, and 21-year) moving correlations show a significant change in the boreal wintertime ENSO–EAWM relationship between two sub-periods of 1976‒1992 and 1997‒2013. Such recent change in ENSO–EAWM relationship is mainly attributed to the changes in the intensity and zonal location of the anomalous lower-tropospheric northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP-AC). NWP-AC commonly develops near the region of the Philippine Sea during the ENSO’s peak phase and plays an important role of bridging the tropical convection and mid-latitude teleconnection. On one hand, the intensity of the NWP-AC is influenced by the interdecadal variation in a linkage between ENSO and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, referring that a strong connection between the Pacific and Indian Oceans results in the strengthening of NWP-AC response to ENSO. On the other hand, the zonal displacement of the NWP-AC is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). That is, the tropical Pacific mean state (i.e., zonal SST gradient between climatologically warm western Pacific and cold eastern Pacific)—strengthened by either the negative PDO phase or the positive AMO phase—drives the anomalous ENSO-induced convection to be shifted to the west. With this westward shift, the zonal center of the NWP-AC also migrates westward over the Philippine Islands and exerts stronger connection between ENSO and EAWM. In contrast, the relaxed zonal SST contrast associated with either the positive PDO phase or the negative AMO phase tends to exhibit weaker ENSO–EAWM relationship via both of eastward shifted zonal centers of the anomalous ENSO-induced convection and the NWP-AC. Finally, a series of the numerical experiments conducted by an atmospheric general circulation model supports the observational findings.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
An SI (2004) A dynamic link between the basin-scale and zonal modes in the tropical Indian Ocean. Theor Appl Climatol 78:203–215
An SI, Bong H (2015) Inter-decadal change in El Niño-Southern Oscillation examined with Bjerknes stability index analysis. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2883-8
An SI, Jin FF (2004) Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. J Clim 17:2399–2412
An SI, Kim JW, Im SH, Kim BM, Park JH (2012) Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical Pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions. Clim Dyn 39:1373–1383
Annamalai H, Liu P, Xie SP (2005) Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoons. J Clim 18:4150–4167
Cai WJ, Rensch PV, Cowan T, Sullivan A (2010) Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and imapct. J Clim 23:4944–4955
Cai WJ et al (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Chang 4:111–116
Cai WJ et al (2015) Increased frequency of extreme La Niña under greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Chang 5:132–137
Chan JCL, Li CY (2004) The East Asian winter monsoon. In: Chang CP (ed) East Asian monsoon. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 54‒106
Chang CP, Lau KM (1982) Short-term planetary-scale interaction over the tropics and the midlatitudes during northern winter. Part I: contrast between active and inactive periods. Mon Weather Rev 110:933–946
Chang CP, Erickson JE, Lau KM (1979) Northeasterly cold waves and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX area during December 1974. Part I: synoptic aspects. Mon Weather Rev 107:812–829
Chang CP, Wang Z, Hendon H (2006) The Asian winter monsoon. The Asian Monsoon. In: Wang B (ed) The Asian Monsoon. Springer, Berlin, pp 89–127
Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeorol 3:249–266
Chen W, Feng J, Wu R (2013) Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon. J Clim 26:622–635
Chung PH, Li T (2013) Interdecadal relationship between the mean state and El Niño types. J Clim 26:361–379
Chung ES, Soden BJ, Sohn BJ, Schmetz J (2013) An assessment of the diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity in reanalysis data sets. J Geophys Res 118:3425–3430
Chylek P, Klett JD, Lesins G, Dubey MK, Hengartner N (2014) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate. Geophys Res Lett 41:2689–2697
Collins WD et al (2004) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM3). Technical report, NCAR/TN-464 + STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, p 226
Collins WD et al (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19:2122–2143
Ding Y (1994) Monsoons over China. Atmospheric sciences library, vol 16. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, p 432
Ding Y, Krishnamurti TN (1987) Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 115:2428–2449
Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080
Feng J, Wang L, Chen W (2014) How does the East Asian summer monsoon behave in the decaying phase of El Niño during different PDO phases? J Clim 27:2682–2698
Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28:2073–2076
Ham YG, Kug JS (2015) Improvement of ENSO simulation based on intermodal diversity. J Clim 28:998–1015
Harrison DE, Larkin NK (1996) The COADS sea level pressure signal: a near-global El Niño composite and time series view, 1946‒1993. J Clim 9:3025–3055
He S, Wang H (2013) Oscillating relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. J Clim 15:9819–9838
He S, Wang H, Liu J (2013) Changes in the relationship between ENSO and Asia-Pacific midlatitude winter atmospheric circulation. J Clim 15:3377–3393
Huang RH, Zhou LT, Chen W (2003) The progresses of recent studies on the variabilities of the East Asian monsoon and their causes. Adv Atmos Sci 20:55–69
Huang RH, Chen JL, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:993–1023
Huang B et al (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930
Ji LR, Shuqing S, Arpe K, Bengtsson L (1997) Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 14:1–22
Jiang ZH, Yang H, Liu Y, Wu YZ, Wen N (2014) Assessing the influence of regional SST modes on the winter temperature in China: the effect of tropical Pacific and Atlantic. J Clim 27:868–879
Jones PD et al (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J Geophys Res 117:D05127. doi:10.1029/2011JD017139
Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Kanamitsu et al (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(11):1631–1643
Kang IS, No HH, Kucharski F (2014) ENSO amplitude modulation associated with the mean SST changes in the tropical central Pacific induced by Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J Clim 27:7911–7920
Kerr RA (2000) A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science 288:1984–1986
Kim D, Jang YS, Kim DH, Kim YH, Watanabe M, Jin FF, Kug JS (2011) El Niño-Southern oscillation sensitivity to cumulus entrainment in a coupled general circulation model. J Geophys Res 116:D22112. doi:10.1029/2011JD016526
Kim JW, Yeh SW, Chang EC (2014) Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 42:957–971
Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau NG (1999) Remote sea surface temperature variation during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmosphere bridge. J Clim 12:917–932
Kug JS, Kang IS (2006) Interactive feedback between the Indian Ocean and ENSO. J Clim 19:1784–1801
Kug JS, Kirtman BP, Kang IS (2006a) Interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean in an interactive ensemble coupled model. Am Meteorol Soc 19:6371–6381
Kug JS, Li T, An SI, Kang IS, Luo JJ, Masson S, Yamagata T (2006b) Role of the ENSO-Indian Ocean coupling on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. Geophys Res Lett 33:L09710. doi:10.1029/2005GL024916
Kug J-S, Jin F-F, An S-I (2009) Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J Clim 22(6):1499–1515
Lau KM, Li MT (1984) The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations—a survey. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 65:114–125
Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Clim 13:4287–4309
Lau NC, Nath MJ (2003) Atmosphere-ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J Clim 16:3–20
Lau NC, Nath MJ (2006) ENSO modulation of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the East Asian monsoon—a model study. J Clim 19:4508–4530
Lau NC, Nath MJ (2009) A model investigation of the role of air-sea interaction in the climatological evolution and ENSO-related variability of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea and western North Pacific. J Clim 22:4771–4792
Li X (1955) A study of cold waves in East Asia. Scientific works in modern China-meteorology (1919‒1949). Science Press, Beijing, pp 35–118 (in Chinese)
Li C (1990) Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Niño events. Adv Atmos Sci 7:36–46
Li S, Bates G (2007) Influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the winter climate of East China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:126–135
Li T, Wang B (2005) A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: synoptic-to-interannual variabilities. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 16:285–314
Li Y, Yang S (2010) A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 23:4255–4262
Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(6):1069–1079
Newman M, Sardeshmukh PD (1998) The impact of the annual cycle on the North Pacific/North American response to remote low frequency forcing. J Atmos Sci 55:1336–1353
Ohba M, Ueda H (2007) An impact of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean in acceleration of the El Niño to La Niña transition. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85:335–348
Okumura YM, Ohba M, Deser C, Ueda H (2011) A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric during of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 24:3822–3829
Park HJ, Ahn JB (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2
Rienecker MM et al (2011) MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J Clim 24:3624–3648
Sakai K, Kawamura R (2009) Remote response of the East Asian winter monsoon to tropical forcing related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res 114:D06105. doi:10.1029/2008JD010824
Shi N (1996) Features of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple time scale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate. J Appl Meteorol Sci 7(2):175–182
Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:26–35
Son HY, Park JY, Kug JS, Yoo J, Kim CH (2014) Winter precipitation variability over Korean Peninsula associated with ENSO. Clim Dyn 42:3171–3186
Sun BM, Li CY (1997) Relationship between the disturbances of East Asian trough and tropical convective activities in boreal winter. Chin Sci Bull 42:500–504 (in Chinese)
Sung MK, An SI, Kim BM, Kug JS (2015) Asymmetric impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on El Niño and La Niña characteristics. Geophys Res Lett 42:4998–5004. doi:10.1002/2015GL064381
Tao SY (1957) A study of activities of cold airs in East Asian winter. In: China Meteorological Administration (eds) Handbook of short-term forecast. Meteorology Press, Beijing, pp 60‒92 (in chinese)
Tomita T, Yasunari T (1996) Role of the northeast winter monsoon on the biennial oscillation of the ENSO/monsoon system. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:399–413
Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012
Wallace GT, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812
Wang L, Chen W (2010) How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon? Adv Atmos Sci 27:855–870
Wang H, He S (2012) Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chin Sci Bull 57:3535–3540
Wang B, Zhang Q (2002) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection. Part II: how the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development. J Clim 15:3252–3265
Wang B, Wu R, Lukas R (1999) Roles of the western North Pacific wind variation in thermocline adjustment and ENSO phase transition. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:1–16
Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536
Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian monsoon variability. J Clim 16:1195–1211
Wang L, Chen W, Huang RH (2008) Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20702. doi:10.1029/2008GL035287
Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W, Huang R (2009) Interannual variations of East Asian trough axis at 500 hPa and its association with the East Asian winter monsoon pathway. J Clim 22:600–614
Wang B, Wu Z, Chang CP, Liu J, Li J, Zhou T (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: the Northern and Southern temperature modes. J Clim 15:1495–1512
Wang B, Xiang B, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:2718–2722
Watanabe M, Jin FF (2002) Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone during ENSO. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2001GL014318
Watanabe M, Jin FF (2003) A moist linear baroclinic model: coupled dynamical-convective response to El Niño. J Clim 16:1121–1140
Weisberg RH, Wang C (1997) A western Pacific oscillator paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 24:779–782. doi:10.1029/97GL00689
Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric science. Academic Press, Cambridge, p 648
Wu BY, Zhang R, D’Arrigo R (2006) Distinct modes of the East Asian winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 134:2165–2179
Wu Z, Li J, Wang B, Liu X (2009) Can the Southern Hemisphere annular mode affect Chinese winter monsoon? J Geophys Res 114:D11107. doi:10.1029/2008JD011501
Wu B, Li T, Zhou T (2010) Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer. J Clim 23:2974–2986
Xie SP, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP Jr (2002) Structure and mechanisms of South Indian Ocean climate variability. J Clim 15:864–878
Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747
Yang S, Lau KM, Kim KM (2002) Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J Clim 15:306–325
Yeh SW, Kang YJ, Noh Y, Miller AJ (2011) The North Pacific climate transitions of the winters of 1976/77 and 1988/89. J Clim 24:1170–1183
Yeh SW, Kug JS, An SI (2014) Recent progress on two types of El Niño: observations, dynamics, and future changes. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 50:69–81
Yu JY, Kao PK, Paek H, Hsu HH, Hung CW, Lu MM, An SI (2015) Linking emergence of the central Pacific El Niño to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J Clim 28:651–662
Yuan Y, Yang S (2012) Impacts of different types of El Niño on the East Asian climate: focus on ENSO cycles. J Clim 25:7702–7722
Yuan Y, Yang S, Zhang Z (2012) Different evolutions of the Philippine Sea anticyclone between the eastern and central Pacific El Niño: possible effects of Indian Ocean SST. J Clim 25:7867–7883
Yun KS, Yeh SW, Ha KJ (2013) Distinct impact of tropical SSTs on summer North Pacific high and western North Pacific subtropical high. J Geophys Res 118:4107–4116
Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the ′86/87 and ′91/92 events. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:49–62
Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Clim 10:1004–1020
Zhang R, Li TR, Wen M, Liu LK (2014) Role of intraseasonal oscillation in asymmetric impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the rainfall over southern China in boreal winter. Clim Dyn 45:559–567
Zhou W, Wang X, Zhou TJ, Li C, Chan LCL (2007) Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. Meteorol Atmos Phys 98:283–293
Acknowledgments
Authors wish to thank F.-F. Jin for his helpful discussions. This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-1043, and by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (MEST) (NRF-2009-C1AAA001-2009-0093042).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kim, JW., An, SI., Jun, SY. et al. ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Clim Dyn 49, 1157–1179 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5