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Seismic Hazard Assessment of Kashmir Region Using Logic Tree Approach: Focus on Sensitivity of PSHA Results Towards Declustering Procedures and GMPEs

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Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Kashmir region located in the northwestern Himalayas has been performed to quantitatively estimate the probability of exceedance of various ground-shaking levels. An updated earthquake catalog composed of 7826 events was prepared by combining historical events (from 1250 BC) and instrumental events (1900–2020). Kijko's maximum likelihood technique yielded seismicity parameter b-value 0.92–1.05 and mmax ~ 7.98 for the entire Kashmir region. A comparison of three seismicity delustering methods has been presented based on the resulting seismicity parameters. PSHA computations were conducted using RCRISIS software based on a logic tree approach to account for the model uncertainties in attenuation models and epistemic uncertainties due to declustering methods. Seismic hazard maps at bedrock for four return periods of 475, 950, 2475, and 4950 years were prepared using peak ground accelerations (PGA) as well as short- (0.2 s) and long-period (1 s) spectral accelerations (Sa). Sensitivity analysis of the computed hazard revealed the substantial effect of attenuation relationships as well as declustering methods on the outcomes. Furthermore, hazard curves and uniform hazard response spectra at each of the 1228 grid points were developed. The southwestern, northwestern, and northern regions of the valley including Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam, and Budgam were found to have the highest hazard as opposed to the central regions like Ganderbal and parts of Baramula. Kashmir region was divided into five zones (ZA-ZE) of high to low seismicity with mean PGA values of 0.175, 0.258, 0.379, 0.456, and 0.514 g, respectively, for the 2475-year return period.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors extend special thanks to Prof. Andrzej Kijko (University of Pretoria, South Africa) for generously providing the HA3 and AU3 MATLAB codes developed based on the maximum likelihood method (Kijko and Sellevoll 1982). Furthermore, we acknowledge the help of the Indian Meteorological Department (MoES) for providing the raw earthquake catalogue; Dr. Jiancang Zhuang (ISM, Japan) for furnishing the MATLAB codes for declustering algorithms; and Prof. Mario Ordaz (UNAM) for making the RCRISIS software available. The analysis presented herein has been conducted using the ZMAP tool (Wyss et al. 2001) in addition to the above-mentioned software.

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The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India

    Falak Zahoor, Abdullah Ansari & K. Seshagiri Rao

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, 190006, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Falak Zahoor

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol, Madhya Pradesh, 452020, India

    Neelima Satyam

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by FZ. Data processing was conducted by AA. The first draft of the manuscript was written by FZ, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Zahoor, F., Ansari, A., Rao, K.S. et al. Seismic Hazard Assessment of Kashmir Region Using Logic Tree Approach: Focus on Sensitivity of PSHA Results Towards Declustering Procedures and GMPEs. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 789–827 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03239-5

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