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Nomograms for Predicting Non-remission in Patients Who Underwent Bariatric Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study in China

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Abstract

Background

As a reflection of the increasing global incidence of obesity, there is a corresponding increase in the proportion of obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery. This study reviewed the factors and outcomes of patients who underwent bariatric surgical procedures and determined the relationships and developed a nomogram to calculate individualized patient risk.

Methods

The nomogram was based on a retrospective study on 259 patients who underwent bariatric surgery at the Chengdu Third People’s Hospital from June 2017 to June 2019. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by the ROC curve and C-index, respectively. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and a retrospective study on 121 patients operated on from May 2015 to May 2019 at the Tenth People’s Hospital of Shanghai.

Results

The predictors contained in the prediction nomogram included age, sex, surgical approach, hyperlipidemia, blood pressure (BP), hyperuricemia, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC). The 6-month model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.765 (95% CI: 0.756 to 0.774) and good calibration. The 1-year model reached a C-index of 0.768 (95% CI, 0.759 to 0.777) in the training cohort.

Conclusions

The proposed nomogram resulted in more accurate non-remission prediction for patients with obesity after bariatric surgery and may provide a reference for the preoperative choice of surgical methods.

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Data Availability

The datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the efforts of the medical staff who followed the patients in the Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu and the Tenth People’s Hospital of Shanghai. In addition, we would also like to appreciate Professor Liu Qi of Tongji University for his help in the statistical analysis of this study.

Funding

This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81502075) and the Foundation of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province (2019YJ0635). The funders had no role in the study design or implementation.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Rui Mao and Pengsen Guo contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610036, China

    Rui Mao, Pengsen Guo, Chenxin Xu & Yanjun Liu

  2. Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, No. 301 Middle Yanchang Road, Shanghai, 200072, China

    Ziwei Lin, Muthukumaran Jayachandran & Shen Qu

  3. The Center of Gastrointestinal and Minimally Invasive Surgery, The Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu; Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, Qinglong Road, Chengdu, 610031, China

    Huawu Yang & Yanjun Liu

  4. Medical Research Center, The Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu, Chongqing Medical University, Sichuan Province, Chengdu, 610031, China

    Tongtong Zhang

  5. Medical Research Center, The Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu, 82 Qinglong street, Qingyang District, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan Province, China

    Tongtong Zhang

Authors
  1. Rui Mao
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  2. Pengsen Guo
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  9. Yanjun Liu
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Tongtong Zhang, Shen Qu or Yanjun Liu.

Ethics declarations

The protocol for this study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Chengdu Third People’s Hospital (record #: 2018S75; Chengdu, Sichuan, China) and was conducted in accordance with the Chinese ethical guidelines for human genome/gene research.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Mao, R., Guo, P., Lin, Z. et al. Nomograms for Predicting Non-remission in Patients Who Underwent Bariatric Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study in China. OBES SURG 31, 1967–1978 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11695-020-05206-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11695-020-05206-8

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