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Modeling landslide susceptibility in Greece: a weighted linear combination approach using analytic hierarchical process, validated with spatial and statistical analysis

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Abstract

A new model for Greece depicting, at a national scale, the spatial distribution of areas prone to landslide phenomena, taking into account preparatory and triggering criteria, is presented. This is a baseline study for prioritizing research in hazardous areas with more detail. Landslide occurrence is very high in certain areas of the Greek territory, such as Western Greece. Analysis is performed by applying two models, both based on slopes and geotechnical data, earthquake occurrence and precipitation. The first, which yields better results, also takes into account land use data. Since there was no access to landslide inventories, landslide susceptibility was performed on empirical estimates of the aforementioned criteria, using the analytic hierarchy process in order to derive the proper weights for each criterion. The final outcome is calculated based on the weighted linear combination of the above-mentioned criteria. The present study covers the area of Greece with an accuracy of 500 m × 500 m grid cell size. Results have been validated with observed events, landsliding urban areas and other studies, thus identifying landslide prone areas in a satisfying manner.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions. The present study has been conducted as part of the project “Greco-Risks—Hellenic Natural-Hazards Risk-Management System of Systems” which is jointly funded by Greece and the European Union, European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), National Action “Cooperation 2011—Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors,” (former) Ministry of Education, Lifelong Learning and Religious Affairs, Operational Programmes “Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship” (EPAN II) and Regions in Transition, National Strategic Reference Framework NSRF 2007–2013.

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  1. Section of Geophysics - Geothermics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784, Zografou, Greece

    G. Sakkas, I. Misailidis, N. Sakellariou, V. Kouskouna & G. Kaviris

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  1. G. Sakkas
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  2. I. Misailidis
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  3. N. Sakellariou
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  4. V. Kouskouna
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Correspondence to G. Sakkas.

Appendix

Appendix

Study

Factors/methodology

Study area

Koukis et al. (2005)

Landslide susceptibility based on lithology and landslide inventories

Greece

Ferentinou et al. (2006)

Landslide hazard estimation for earthquake- and rainfall-induced events with the use of GIS

Greece

Gournelos et al. (2010)

Correlation of landslides with precipitation with daily, monthly and annual thresholds.

Greece

Papanikolaou and Diakakis (2011)

Climate change and landslides along with probabilistic rainfall thresholds

Greece

Sabatakakis et al. (2013)

Landslide susceptibility based on multivariate criteria and landslide inventories

Greece

Chousianitis et al. (2014)

Arias intensity and Newmark displacement for earthquake-induced landslides

Greece

Chousianitis et al. (2016)

Probabilistic Newmark displacement based on probabilistic earthquake occurrence and slope strength

Greece

Anagnostopoulos and Georgiadis (1997)

Correlation of landslides with rainfalls

Northern Greece

Tsangaratos and Bernardos (2014)

Landslide susceptibility analysis through artificial neural network based on multiple parameters

NE Greece

Tsangaratos and Ilia (2015)

Landslide susceptibility analysis based on decision tree and multiple parameters

NE Greece

Tsangaratos et al. (2013)

Landslide susceptibility analysis based on case events and multiple parameters

Evoia, Greece

Ilia and Tsangaratos (2015)

Landslide susceptibility based on weight of evidence and sensitivity analysis with multiple parameters

Evoia, Greece

Rozos et al. (2013)

Soil erosion

Evoia, Greece

Kalantzi et al. (2010)

A historical investigation and recording of landslide phenomena in the area of Ioannina

Epirus, Greece

Bellas and Voulgaridis (2014)

Finite element/equilibrium methods

Epirus, Greece

Rozos and Apostolidis (2004a)

Geoengineering investigation of slope failures in Palaio Mikro Chorion

Evrytania, Greece

Lekkas and Logos (1991)

A case study of landslides at Livadi village examining multiple criteria of the area

Eastern Thessaly

Lekkas et al. (1991)

A record of landslide events in eastern Thessaly along with proposed safety measures

Eastern Thessaly

Lekkas et al. (1998a)

GIS in the use of landslides management for the case of Ropoto village

NW Thessaly (Ropoto village)

Lekkas et al. (1998b)

Analysis of the geological, tectonic, hydrogeological and slope conditions of the village Ropoto and accompanying landslide phenomena

NW Thessaly (Ropoto village)

Aggelidis Ch and Mpellas (1998)

A study for the Ropoto case. Geotechnical investigation from borehole data along with equilibrium analysis

NW Thessaly (Ropoto village)

Bathrellos et al. (2009)

Landslide susceptibility analysis based on landslide inventory and statistical and logical methods

Trikala

Kavounidis et al. (2010)

 

Tempi

Pyrgiotis et al. (2007)

A statistical analysis of precipitation and landslide occurrence for Karditsa area

Karditsa

Matziaris et al. (2007)

A stability analysis taking into account geomorphological, hydrological, geological and geotechnical conditions

Karditsa

Rozos and Apostolidis (2004b)

Investigation of landslide phenomena and safety measures taking into account the geological setting of the area of Kanalia village (Fthiotis)

Fthiotis

Mertzanis et al. (2011)

Erosion and landslide phenomena occurred in artificial slopes

Fthiotis

Georgopoulos and Vardoulakis (2000)

A model of the Malakasa landslide as a four rigid-body failure mechanism

Malakasa

Foumelis et al. (2004)

Landslide susceptibility mapping taking into account multiple criteria

Peloponnese

Koukis et al. (2009)

A correlation between landslide events and major tectonic faults in the Gulf of Corinth

Peloponnese

Kouskouna (2010)

Macroseismic investigation of destructive earthquakes. Earthquake-induced landslides are reported

Peloponnese, Ionian islands

Rozos et al. (2010)

Landslide susceptibility of northern Peloponnese using the AHP method for multiple criteria

Peloponnese

Dounias et al. (2006)

The large landslide of Tsakona

Peloponnese

Dounias and Belokas (2010)

Limit equilibrium analyses for the area of the Tsakona landslides in order to investigate the failure mechanism and examine any stabilizing measures

Peloponnese

Papadopoulos (1993)

A report of the 1992, M = 5.3 South Aegean earthquake describing landslide occurrence in the island of Milos

Cyclades (Milos)

Antoniou and Lekkas (2010)

A rockfall susceptibility analysis for Athinios port in Santorini, taking into account geological setting, geomorphology, slopes, structural analysis and rockfall travel paths

Cyclades (Thera island)

Lekkas et al. (2013)

A landslide risk reduction study for the area of Teleferik at Santorini volcanic complex

Cyclades (Thera island)

Lekkas et al. (1998c)

An overview of natural hazards (including landslides) and pointing out hazardous areas of Rhodes island

Rhodes island

Kouli et al. (2010)

Landslide susceptibility based on the weighted linear combination of multiple factors for Rethymno

Crete, Greece

Kouli et al. (2014)

Landslide susceptibility comparing weighted linear combination and weights of evidence of multiple criteria

Crete, Greece

Lekkas and Antoniou (2004)

Recording landslide phenomena in the red rock area at Zakynthos island, performing stability analysis and suggestions for protective measures

Ionian islands, Greece

Lekkas et al. (2004)

The geographical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides caused by the 2003 event at Lefkada

Ionian islands, Greece

Papathanassiou et al. (2013)

A statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced landslides in the island of Lefkada taking into account multiple criteria with the use of GIS

Ionian islands

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Sakkas, G., Misailidis, I., Sakellariou, N. et al. Modeling landslide susceptibility in Greece: a weighted linear combination approach using analytic hierarchical process, validated with spatial and statistical analysis. Nat Hazards 84, 1873–1904 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2523-6

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