Abstract
By using the multi-taper method (MTM) of singular value decomposition (SVD), this study investigates the interdecadal evolution (10- to 30-year cycle) of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). Two significant interdecadal signals, one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle, are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields. Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and Mongolia high (MH). During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle, a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage. During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle, a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China, whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage. The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China, as seen in the 1998 flooding case. The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin, while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China. These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China, helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.
摘 要
本研究利用多窗谱分析—奇异值分解(MTM-SVD)方法, 研究了中国东部降水的年代际演变(10–30年的周期)及其与北太平洋海表温度(SST)的关系. 在1951–2015年期间, 中国降水和北太平洋SST场都具有两个重要的年代际信号, 其周期分别为11年和23年. 通过太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)相关的阿留申低压异常对西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)和蒙古高压(MH)的影响, 北太平洋SST强迫可以调节中国降水的年代际变化. 对于11年周期, 在PDO负位相(PDO−)的发展期, WPSH和MH的减弱使长江流域的降水增多; 而在PDO–衰退期, WPSH和MH的增强导致雨带北移至华北地区. 对于23年周期, 在PDO−发展期, WPSH和MH的减弱使华北地区的降水增多; 在PDO–衰退期, WPSH偏强而MH偏弱则有利于华南的降水增多. 如1998年洪水事件的个例所示, 11年和23年周期变率对中国不同地区降水变化的贡献存在差异: 11年周期主要是长江流域降水增多的原因, 而23年周期是东北地区降水增多的原因. 这些结果阐明了PDO是如何调节中国降水年代际变化的过程和机制, 对提高气候年代际预测的能力具有重要意义.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the reviewers for their precious and insightful comments, which greatly helped improve our manuscript. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42030410), Laoshan Laboratory (No. LSKJ202202403-2), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB40000000), and the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST.
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Article Highlights
• The precipitation over eastern China and the SST in the North Pacific exhibit two dominant interdecadal cycles in their local fractional variance spectrum.
• The covarying patterns of precipitation, SST, and related atmospheric fields are analyzed for the processes and mechanisms associated with the PDO.
• The relative contributions of the two interdecadal variabilities to precipitation anomalies over different regions of China are illustrated using the 1998 flooding case.
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Synergistic Interdecadal Evolution of Precipitation over Eastern China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during 1951–2015
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Wu, M., Zhang, RH., Hu, J. et al. Synergistic Interdecadal Evolution of Precipitation over Eastern China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during 1951–2015. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 53–72 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3011-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3011-z