Skip to main content
Log in

Recent progress in studies of climate change in China

  • Published:
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.12°C (10 yr)−1. This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400–500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000–1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Chen, H., J. Sun, X. Chen, and W. Zhou, 2010b: CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.2278.

  • Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2009: How the “best” models project the future precipitation change in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4), 773–782, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8211-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, H. W., Y. Xin, P. X. Chen, Y. P. Li, X. J. Yu, and S. Q. S. L. Wang, 2010a: Variation of extreme wind speeds and gale frequency over the windy regions in Xinjiang. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4), 479–490. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y., X. Y. Chen, and G. Y. Ren, 2010c: Variation of extreme precipitation over the Chinese large river basins. Advances in Climate Change Research, 6(4), 265–269. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chu, Z. Y., G. Y. Ren, X. M. Shao, and H. B. Liu. 2005: A preliminary reconstruction of mean surface air temperature over the past 1000 years in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 10(4), 826–836. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Committee of National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2007: China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China Science Press, Beijing, 80–105. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Committee of Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011: Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China Science Press, Beijing. 710pp. (in Chinese)

  • Ding, Y. H., and G. Y. Ren, 2008: Introduction to Climate Change Science of China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 281pp. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding, Y. H., and Coauthors, 2000: Improvement of High Resolution Regional Climate Model and its Application in Experiment on Simulation of Persistent Rainstorm Events in East Asia. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 217–231.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding, Y. H., Z. Y. Wang, and Y. Sun, 2008: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences, Int. J. Climatol, 28, 1139–1161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong, M., 2001: NCC General Circulation Model-Basic Principles and Use Instructions. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 152pp. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng, G. L., and Coauthors, 2008: Latest advances of climate change detecting technologies. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 66(06), 892–905 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao, X. J., Z. C. Zhao, Y. H. Ding, and R. H. Huang, 2001: Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 1224–1230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao, X. J., Y. Shi, and F. Giorgi, 2011: A high resolution simulation of climate change over China. Science China (D), 54, 462–472, doi: 10.1007/s11430-010-4035-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ge, Q. S., and Coauthors, 2002: Winter-half-year temperature changes in eastern China over the past 2000 years. Quaternary Sciences, 22, 166–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ge, Q. S., J. Y. Zheng, X. Q. Fang, Z. Man, X. Q. Zhang, P. Y. Zhang, and W.-C. Wang, 2003: Winter halfyear temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene, 13, 933–940.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ge, Q. S., J. Y. Zheng, Z. X. Hao, X. M. Shao, W. C. Wang, and J. Luterbacher, 2010: Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong, D. Y., and H. Han, 2004: Extreme climate events in northern China over the last 50 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(2), 230–238. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hao, Z. X., and Coauthors, 2010a: 1876-1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55, 3001–3007, doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-3243-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hao, Z. X., J. Y. Zheng, and Q. S. Ge, 2010b: Changes of extreme drought/flood events in eastern China over the past 2000 years. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4), 388–394. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribut ion of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansen, E., and Coauthors, 2007: Palaeo-climate. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Solomon et al., Eds., 463–497.

  • Ji, J. J., and L. Yu, 1999: A simulation study of coupled feedback mechanism between physical and biogeochemical processes at the surface. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 23(4), 439–448. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, D. B., Y. Zhang, and X. M. Lang, 2011: Vegetation feedback under future global warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 106(1–2), 211–227, doi: 10.1007/s00704-011-0428-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, Y., Y. Luo, Z. Zhao, and S. Tao, 2010: Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2004. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99(3–4), 421–430, doi: 10.1007/s00704-009-0152-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, Z. H., X. Zhang, and J. Wang, 2008: Projection of climate change in China, in the 21st century by IPCC-AR4 models. Geographical Research, 27(4), 787–799. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin, X. Z., X. H. Zhang, and T. J. Zhou, 1999: Fundamental framework and experiments of the third generation of IAP/LASG world ocean general circulation model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 16, 197–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, and I. G. Rigor, 1999: Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys., 37, 173–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Q. X., X. N. Liu, H. Zhang, T. C. Peterson, and D. R. Easterling, 2004: Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 260–268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Z. Y., S. L. Wu, W. F. Yang, J. W. Chen, Y. X. Wang, and X. Yu, 1997: Long-term variation of drought/flood in Xi’an area. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2(4), 356–360. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang, E. Y., and Coauthors, 2006: The 1920s drought recorded by tree rings and historical documents in the semi-arid and arid areas of northern China. Climatic Change, 79, 403–432.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, X. C., S. Q. Yu, and G. L. Tang, 1995: Series of average air temperature over China for the last 100-year period. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 19, 525–534. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, X. H., D. H. Qin, X. M. Shao, T. Chen, and J. W. Ren, 2004: Tree-ring based reconstruction of the past 1000 year temperature change over the Qilian Mountains. Sciences in China (D), 34(1), 89–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, X., X. Shao, L. Zhao, D. Qin, T. Chen, and J. Ren, 2007: Dendro-climatic temperature record derived from tree-ring width and stable carbon isotope chronologies in the middle Qilian Mountains, China. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 39, 651–657.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pu, B., S. W. Wang, and J. H. Zhu, 2007: Spatial pattern of seasonal precipitation over the eastern part of China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 43, 620–629. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian, W. H., J. L. Fu, W. W. Zhang, and X. Lin, 2007: Changes in mean climate and extreme climate in China during the last 40 years. Advances in Earth Science, 22(7), 673–684. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren, F., Y. Wang, and X. Wang, 2007: Estimat ing tropical cyclone precipitation from station observations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24(4), 700–711, doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0700-y.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., M. Z. Xu, Z. Y. Chu, Z. H. Chen, A. Y. Zhang, J. Guo, H. Z. Bai, and X. F. Liu, 2005a: Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951–2004. Climatic and Environmental Research, 10(4), 717–727. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., and Coauthors, 2005b: Climate changes of mainland China over the past half century. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 63(6), 942–956. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., Y. Chen, X. K. Zou, Y. Q. Zhou, X. L. Wang, Y. Jiang, F. M. Ren, and Q. Zhang, 2010: Definition and trend analysis of an integrated extreme climatic index. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4), 354–364. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., Y. Q. Zhou, Z. Y. Chu, A.Y. Zhang, J. Guo, and X.Y. Liu, 2008: Urbanization effect on observed surface air temperature trend in North China. J. Climate, 21(6), 1333–1348.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., Guan, Z. Y., Shao, X. M., and D. Y. Gong, 2011: Change in climatic extremes over mainland China. Climatic Research, 50(1–2), 105–111, doi: 10.3354/cr01067.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren, Y. Y., and G. Y. Ren, 2011: A remote-sensing method of selecting reference stations for evaluating urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends. J. Climate, 24(7), 3179–3189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi, Y., and X. J. Gao, 2008: Influence of greenhouse effect on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 32(5), 1006–1018. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Streets, D. G., C. Yu, Y. Wu, M. Chin, Z. C. Zhao, T. Hayasaka, and G. Y. Shi, 2008: Aerosol trends over China, 1980–2000. Atmospheric Research, 88, 174–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, J., H. Wang, W. Yuan, and H. Chen, 2010: Spatialtemporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D16110, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, J. Q., H. J. Wang, and W. Yuan, 2011: Decadal variability of the extreme hot event in China and its association with atmospheric circulations. Climatic and Environmental Research, 16(2), 199–208. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tan, M., T. Liu, J. Hou, X. Qin, H. Zhang, T. Li. 2003: Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1617–1620.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang, G. L., 2006: A study of temperature change during instrumental observation period in China. M. S. thesis, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 76pp. (in Chinese)

  • Tang, G. L., and G. Y. Ren, 2005: Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100 years over China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 10, 791–798. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang, G. L., Y. H. Ding, S. W. Wang, G. Y. Ren, H. B. Liu, and L. Zhang, 2009: Comparative analysis of the time sequences of surface air temperature in China in the last 100 years. Advances in Climate Change Research, 5(2), 71–78. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, L. G., and Coauthors, 2006: Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present. Proc Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA), 103, 10536–10543.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, S. W., and Z. H. Chen, 1993: A preliminary study on severe droughts/floods in the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers for the last 2000 years. Diagnostic Research on Regularity of Drought/Flood Disasters in the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and Their Economic Impacts. Wang and Huang, Eds., China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 67–75. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, S. W., D.Y. Gong, J. L. Ye, and Z. H. Chen, 2000: Seasonal precipitation series of eastern China since 1880 and the variability. Acta Geographica Sinica, 55, 281–293. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, S. W., J. L. Ye, D. Y. Gong, J. H. Zhu, and T. D. Yao, 1998: Construction of annual mean temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 9, 392–401. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y., and Z. W. Yan, 2009: Trends in seasonal total and extreme precipitation over China during 1961–2007. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2(3), 165–171.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wen, X. Y., S. W. Wang, J. H. Zhu, and D. Viner, 2006: An overview of China climate change over the 20th century using UK UEA/CRU high resolution grid data. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 894–904. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu, T. W., R. C Yu, and F. Zhang, 2008: A modified dynamic framework for atmospheric spectral model and its application. J. Atmos. Sc., 65, 2235–2253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, T. W., and Coauthors, 2010: The Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC AGCM2.0.1): Description and its performance for the present-day climate. Climate Dyn., 34, 123–147, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, Y., X. J. Gao, and F. Giorgi, 2009: Regional variability of climate change hot-spots in East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4), 783–792, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9034-2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, Y. L., and Coauthors, 2006: Analysis of response to climate change in China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(17), 2068–2074.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yan, Z., and P. D. Jones, 2008: Detecting inhomogeneities in daily climate series using wavelet analysis. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 25(2), 157–163, doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0157-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, B., A. Braeuning, K. R. Johnson, and Y. F. Shi, 2002: General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1324, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014485.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, J. H., Z. H. Jiang, P. X. Wang, and Y. S. Chen, 2008: Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 13(1), 75–83. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, Y. H., M. Ying, and B. D. Chen, 2009: Climate change characteristics of land-falling tropical cyclones over the past 58 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 67(5), 689–696. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • You, Q. L., S. C. Kang, G. Y. Ren, K. Fraedrich, N. Pepin, Y. P. Yan, and L. J. Ma, 2011: Observed changes in snow depth and number of snow days in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau. Climate Research, 46, 171–183, doi: 10.3354/cr00985.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai, P. M., X. B. Zhang, H. Wan, and X. H. Pan, 2005: Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J. Climate, 18, 1096–1108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, A. Y., G. Y. Ren, J. X. Zhou, Z. Y. Chu, Y. Y. Ren, and G. L. Tang, 2010: Impacts of urbanization on trends of surface air temperature change in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 68(6), 957–966. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, D. E., 2004: Variation of dry-wet climate and severe drought events as revealed in the climate records of China over the past 1000 years. Science and Technology Review, 22(8), 47–49. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, L., and G. Y. Ren, 2003: Change in dust storm frequency and the climatic controls in northern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 61(6), 744–750. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, L., G. Y. Ren, J. Liu, Y. Q. Zhou, Y. Y. Ren, A. Y. Zhang, and Y.W. Feng, 2011: Urban effect on trends of extreme temperature indices at Beijing Meteorological Station. Chinese J. Geophys., 54(5), 1150–1159, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.00015733.2011.05.002. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, X. G., and X. Q. Li, 1982: Some characteristics of temperature change in the 20th century in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 40, 198–208. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, D., Y. Luo, G. Gao, C. H. Zhu, and Y. B. Shen, 2010: Long-term changes and essential climatic characteristics of sunshine duration over China during 1961–2007. Resources Science, 32(4), 701–711. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, Z. C., 1991: The changes of temperature and the effects of urbanization in China in the last 39 years. Meteorological Monthly, 17(4), 14–17. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, Z. C., Y. Luo, Y. Jiang, and Y. Xu, 2008: Projections of surface air temperature change in China for the next two decades. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 24(5), 1–5. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, Z. C., S. W. Wang, Y. Luo, and Y. Jiang, 2009a: Uncertainty analysis of climate warming during the last 100 years. Review of Science and Technology, 27(23), 41–48. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, Z. C., Y. Luo, Y. Jiang, and D. G. Streetse, 2009b: Impacts of dimming and brightening on warming in China. Scientific Research Monthly, 8, 34–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zheng, J. Y., Q. S. Ge, and X. Q. Fang, 2002: Seeing the 20th century warming from temperature changes of winter-half-year in eastern China for the last 2000 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 57, 631–638. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zheng, J. Y, W. C. Wang, Q. S. Ge, Z. M. Man, and P. Y. Zhang, 2006: Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 17, 579–592. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, T. J., and R. C. Yu, 2006: Twentieth century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models. J. Climate, 19, 5843–5858.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, T. J., and Coauthors, 2008: Progress in climate change attribution and projection studies. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 32(4), 906–922. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, Y. Q., and G. Y. Ren, 2009: Urbanization effect on trends of mean maximum, minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range in North China. Plateau Meteorology, 28(5), 1158–1166. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, Y. Q., and G. Y. Ren, 2011: Change in extreme temperature events frequency over mainland China during 1961–2008. Climate Research, 50(1–2), doi: 10.3354/cr01053.

  • Zhou, Z. J., and G. C. Zhang, 2003: Strong dust storm events of northern China over 1954-2002. Chinese Science Bulletin, 48(11), 1224–1228. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zou, X., L. V. Alexander, D. Parker, and J. Caesar, 2006: Variations in severe storms over China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(17), L17701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou, X. K., G. Y. Ren, and Q. Zhang, 2010: A study of meteorological drought index and its trend. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4), 371–378. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guoyu Ren  (任国玉).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ren, G., Ding, Y., Zhao, Z. et al. Recent progress in studies of climate change in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29, 958–977 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2

Key words

Navigation