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The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from numerical weather prediction and regional climate model simulations

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Abstract

In this study we examine the determination accuracy of both the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) within the scope of numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate model simulations. First, Tmrt is determined and the so-called UTCI-Fiala model is then used for the calculation of UTCI. Taking into account the uncertainties of NWP model (among others the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM) output (temperature, downwelling short-wave and long-wave radiation) stated in the literature, we simulate and discuss the uncertainties of Tmrt and UTCI at three stations in different climatic regions of Europe. The results show that highest negative (positive) differences to reference cases (under assumed clear-sky conditions) of up to −21°C (9°C) for Tmrt and up to −6°C (3.5°C) for UTCI occur in summer (winter) due to cloudiness. In a second step, the uncertainties of RCM simulations are analyzed: three RCMs, namely ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational), RegCM (REGional Climate Model) and REMO (REgional MOdel) are nested into GCMs and used for the prediction of temperature and radiation fluxes in order to estimate Tmrt and UTCI. The inter-comparison of RCM output for the three selected locations shows that biases between 0.0 and ±17.7°C (between 0.0 and ±13.3°C) for Tmrt (UTCI), and RMSE between ±0.5 and ±17.8°C (between ±0.8 and ±13.4°C) for Tmrt (UTCI) may be expected. In general the study shows that uncertainties of UTCI, due to uncertainties arising from calculations of radiation fluxes (based on NWP models) required for the prediction of Tmrt, are well below ±2°C for clear-sky cases. However, significant higher uncertainties in UTCI of up to ±6°C are found, especially when prediction of cloudiness is wrong.

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Acknowledgments

This work was performed within European Union’s COST action 730 “Towards a Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI for Assessing the Thermal Environment of the Human Being”, while S.F.S. was working temporarily at the Institute of Meteorology (University of Natural Resources and Life sciences, Vienna). This work has been supported by the European Research Council under the European Community's 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement number 227915, project PBL-PMES.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Meteorology, University of Applied life Sciences and Natural Resources, Vienna, Austria

    Stefan F. Schreier, Herbert Formayer, Imram Nadeem & Philipp Weihs

  2. Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Stefan F. Schreier

  3. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

    Irene Suomi

  4. Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors, Dortmund, Germany

    Peter Bröde

  5. Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Harald E. Rieder

  6. Meteorological Institute, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität, Freiburg, Germany

    Gerd Jendritzky

  7. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Ekaterina Batchvarova

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  1. Stefan F. Schreier
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Correspondence to Stefan F. Schreier.

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Schreier, S.F., Suomi, I., Bröde, P. et al. The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from numerical weather prediction and regional climate model simulations. Int J Biometeorol 57, 207–223 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0525-y

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