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Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary — Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

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Abstract

Ecological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of Göd, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer - hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGM-sB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungarian Danube Research Institute, Jávorka Sándor út 14, H-2131, Göd, Hungary

    Csaba Sipkay & Tihamér Kiss-Keve

  2. Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/c, H-1117, Budapest, Hungary

    Csaba Vadadi-Fülöp

  3. ALÖKI Applied Ecological Research and Forensic Institute Ltd., Kassa utca 118, H-1185, Budapest, Hungary

    Réka Homoródi

  4. “Adaptation to Climate Change” Research Group of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Villányi út 29-43, H-1118, Budapest, Hungary

    Levente Hufnagel

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  1. Csaba Sipkay
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  2. Tihamér Kiss-Keve
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Correspondence to Levente Hufnagel.

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Sipkay, C., Kiss-Keve, T., Vadadi-Fülöp, C. et al. Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary — Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM). Biologia 67, 323–337 (2012). https://doi.org/10.2478/s11756-012-0004-2

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